Livestock quarantine lifted across most northern areas

• Poor households in Karamoja started their lean seasons one to four months earlier than expected in March, due to a below-average harvest arising from poor and erratic April/May rains. Food consumption is below-average due to depleted food stocks and inadequate incomes. Although Stressed (IPC Phase 2) is expected, food security could deteriorate to Crisis (IPC Phase 3) by May.

• In markets nationwide, staple food prices increased from December to January but still remain below last year's levels. A gradual increase in prices is expected through May. Households in bimodal areas are expected to have normal food access from the market through income earned from their typical livelihood activities. 

• The March to May 2015 rains in the bimodal areas will likely be normal to above normal. According to preliminary forecasts, there is an increased likelihood of near normal to below normal rainfall for unimodal Karamoja, which could disrupt planting and crop performance. An updated national forecast is expected in early March.

• Land preparation for the first season is in progress. Post-harvest activities like threshing, cleaning, packaging, and storing are occurring. Farmers in both bimodal and unimodal areas are preparing their land for the onset of the rainy season, which typically starts in March/April. In the unimodal areas, first season preparations like ploughing and early planting are ongoing this month. Second season harvests in unimodal areas are being finalized. Early rains are encouraging these seasonal activities.
• Ground surface temperatures have decreased. In January, above average ground surface temperatures dried and depleted pasture and water resources faster than normal. The early rains, especially around the lake Victoria Basin and central and southwestern parts of the country have cooled ground surface temperatures, allowing regrowth of pasture and have replenished water resources. Livestock body conditions remain near normal.
• Livestock quarantine lifted in most of Karamoja, but placed on some central areas. With no new cases of Foot and Mouth Disease (FMD) across most of the Karamoja region, the restrictions of livestock movement was lifted, except in Kaabong, where new cases of FMD are still observed. Kween and Nakasongola districts in the central cattle corridor are under quarantine. Ongoing disease surveillance and targeted vaccinations are occurring where cases have been reported. Though livestock markets were disrupted since last in June, livestock sales have occurred.  Prices have stayed advantageous to the farmers throughout and post-quarantine. Markets are returning to normal as more traders return to purchase livestock from the Karamoja region. Households are able to sell their livestock to purchase food during this early lean season.
• Food security is worsening in terms of scope and severity mainly concentrated in Eastern Karamoja. The number of people in Stressed (IPC Phase 2) is growing and some households have deteriorated to Crisis (IPC Phase 3). A majority of households have started their lean season one to four months early. Seasonal incomes are also below average for households relying on casual labor. Purchasing power is low for households buying food from the market. However, on-farm casual labor opportunities are increasing with the approach of the planting period in March, but are not expected to offset overall income deficits. Prolonged poor food intake and dietary diversity is likely encouraging malnutrition among the children five years and under.
• Malnutrition among South Sudanese refugees is improving. According to UNHCR as of late February, over 143,000 South Sudanese refugees have entered Uganda since mid-December 2013. The supplementary feeding and therapeutic programs implemented by partners and humanitarian agencies have reduced the prevalence of Global Acute Malnutrition (GAM) in the North/West Nile refugee settlements from critical (greater than 15 percent) to poor (5 to 9 percent), and in Koboko to acceptable (Less than 5 percent) according to the World Health Organization’s thresholds, reported in the January 2015 Food and Nutrition Security Assessment among Refugee Settlements in Uganda report by the Government of Uganda, UNICEF, WFP, UNHCR, and Makerere University.

The current situation has not changed the assumptions used to develop FEWS NET's most likely scenario for the period of January to June 2015. A full discussion of the scenario is available in the January to June 2015 Food Security Outlook.

A longer than usual lean season will likely increase the prevalence of malnutrition in Karamoja by April/May. As households deplete food stocks they are intensifying coping strategies like firewood and charcoal sales. More households are sending members to nearby towns for casual labor. Food is availability on the market and food prices are stable, but the household’s low purchasing power is constraining food access. With the exception of Kaabong, households owning some livestock are be able to sell livestock, providing income for food purchase.

For the poor households with very few livestock, productive assets sales are occurring. Their low incomes may result in poor investment in their normal livelihood activities. These households may not purchase seed and other inputs for the coming season. This indicates households are deteriorating to Crisis (IPC Phase 3), but for less than 20 percent of households. This may result in less acreage planted and another year of below-average production, affecting future household food security.

The ongoing early distribution of assistance through food-for-work and cash-for-work programs may delay Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes until April or May. However, not all vulnerable households are being assisted. The interannual assistance numbers have remained the same as in 2014, covering 155,000 people.  An erratic start to the seasonal rains and possibly below average rainfall would worsen household ability to access food and delay/reduce the quantity of green harvests triggering Crisis (IPC Phase 3) by May. Forecasts indicate average to below average total rainfall is expected.

Stable Minimal (IPC Phase 1) conditions continue in bimodal areas. Food stocks at both household and market levels remain below last years’ and the five year average prices because of an above average second season harvest since December and subdued cross-border trade to South Sudan. The seasonal incomes will be normal and households will be able to access food through June when the green harvest is expected. At the onset of rains in March, pasture and water resources will be restored for normal livestock production and may encourage early green harvests of vegetables and legumes.