Famine Early Warning Systems Network

Crop and livestock production: In bimodal Uganda, cumulative second season rainfall (September – December) was significantly below average and poorly distributed temporally and spatially. Cumulative rainfall was 55 to 75 percent of the long-term average in northern and eastern Uganda, equivalent to 100 to 200 mm of rainfall, with larger deficits in central Uganda (Figure 1). Ground conditions were worsened by the corresponding hotter-than-normal land surface conditions. The seasonal performance is associated with the adverse impacts of the current La-Nina and warm west Pacific events.

Generally, following the late and varied onset of September to December rainfall which resulted in unsynchronized planting activities across cropping zones, crop performance was varied depending on the time of planting and rainfall distribution. In northern and eastern Uganda, dry spells were more frequent while in other areas, poor rainfall was punctuated by brief, torrential rains that led to severe flash floods, heavy storms/hailstorms, and landslides notably in Kasese, Rakai, Sironko, and Bukomansimbi. In December, the last month of the growing season, rainfall atypically decreased while in eastern and north-eastern regions and parts of the Victoria basin it has decreased significantly.

In bimodal areas, harvesting is ongoing following the patterns of varied and staggered planting and rainfall distribution. While some harvesting for cereals and legumes began by mid-November, the main harvest is delayed in some areas but expected to be complete by early January for crops like millet and sorghum in western and northern Uganda. Overall, the cereal and legume harvest is moderate to slightly below average with localized areas of very poor crop harvests in Teso and parts of northeastern Uganda. However, other crops like cassava, bananas, sweet potatoes had near-average production.

Meanwhile, in Karamoja, the main crop production season is concluding with the minor, long-cycle sorghum harvest in December which is significantly below average. FEWS NET estimates from the crop tour by the regional scientists that, the total main season harvest in 2021 was poorest in parts of Moroto, Kaabong, Kotido, and Napak with cereal production estimated at 40-50 percent of the normal harvest. Conversely, the southern and western districts of Nakapiripirit and Nabilatuk saw relatively better grain production prospects of between 60-80 percent of normal harvest. Crop losses occurred due to the impacts of below-average erratic rainfall, interspaced with an atypically long dry spell and two flooding/waterlogging events during the April-September main rainfall season that also contributed to the below normal area planted.

According to the latest eMODIS/NDVI percent of median (Figure 2), current vegetation conditions are exceptionally drier-than-normal over Karamoja and localized parts of the cattle corridor districts, in response to sequential poor rainfall performance since November – exacerbated by the ongoing hotter-than-normal temperatures. However, the impacts on livestock production are being somewhat mitigated by dry pasture and occasional rains that result in some regrowth. According to key informants, livestock migration to dry-season grazing areas is still limited, but milk productivity is slightly below seasonal levels. However, in Karamoja, pasture and water availability is likely to be competitive as herds from Turkana come to forage in Karamoja while livestock-related insecurity continues to hinder normal seasonal grazing movements.

Resurgence of COVID-19 infections and economic recovery: According to the Bank of Uganda (BOU) State of the Economy Report December 2021, economic activity weakened in the second quarter amidst the reimposition of COVID-19 restrictions. However, in line with the relaxation of restrictions and growing consumer demand, the latest high-frequency indicators showed some recovery beginning in October 2021. However, annual headline inflation and core inflation rose to 2.6 percent in November 2021, from 1.9 percent and 2.1 percent, respectively, in October 2021. This increase was driven by rapidly increasing energy and food prices resulting in inflation on all components in the CPI basket. Crude oil prices rose sharply to 83.7 USD per barrel in October 2021, increasing by 12.1 percent relative to September 2021 and 22.9 percent relative to May 2021, leading to significant increases in local pump prices. This increased the cost of doing business and subsequently led to higher prices of goods and services, further constraining business and momentum in consumer demand. Given the high uncertainty, inflation pressures will likely continue rising driven by weaker-than-expected global growth, supply chain disruptions, and the re-imposition of containment measures due to the resurgence of COVID-19 variants. These economic conditions are expected to further constrain food access among urban households with reduced income-earning opportunities, and the increasing price of the food basket overall resulting in reduced purchasing power.

Markets and trade: Despite the pandemic's impacts on Uganda’s agricultural exports, regional demand due to drought and other natural hazards continues to drive improving cross-border trade volumes given the relative competitive staple food prices. Domestic demand for staple food commodities remains atypically low due to various factors including reduced high-volume demand from institutional consumers like schools, which remain closed. Staple food prices have generally increased following seasonal reduction of household and market stocks, made worse by the below-average seasonal rainfall for the second season. Sorghum grain and maize prices are around 10 to 50 percent above the five-year average in November across major markets (Figure 3). Retail prices for maize, cassava chips, and sorghum increased by 11-77 percent in comparison to 2020. Bean prices, however, were below average for all markets monitored. The second consecutive below average harvest in December/January is not replenishing household and market stocks nor incomes from crop sales as is typical. Uganda is expected to remain a major source of regional supply although the tradeable surplus in 2021 is less than usual. Speculation over the likelihood of increased local and cross-border demand following less than usual surplus production in Uganda and Kenya is expected to keep prices above last year and the recent five-year average. 

In Karamoja, sorghum prices increased significantly by around 10-55 percent compared to the five-year average and 2020 prices at the same time. This follows the significantly poor 2021 crop harvest in the region but also from surrounding districts in the bimodal areas that serve Karamoja as a food basket. Given the increase in food prices and declining value of the sale of a bundle of firewood or charcoal – a key source of income for poor households – earning less income than usual and, therefore, purchasing less food than last year and the five-year average in most local markets (Figure 4).

Current food security outcomes

In bimodal areas, as the harvesting comes to completion, below-average food stocks at household and market levels are already anticipated given the below-average second season harvests. While food availability and some purchases are likely to sustain Minimal (IPC Phase 1) outcomes in most areas, the greater northern Uganda including parts of Teso and eastern region are expected to continue facing Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes through May. Above-average staple prices are limiting food access for poor households with greater dependence on markets, given that income sources such as charcoal and firewood sales, agricultural labor, and livestock sales have been below average. Below-average rainfall, as well as the slow-paced and uncertain economic recovery, has kept incomes below average. While income sources for poor urban households without savings and who rely on daily wages have been improving, others with limited coping capacity are expected to continue experiencing Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes given the rising food and non-food commodity prices. Overall, below-average harvests in November/December have improved food availability and access though to a lesser degree than normal. Regional trade in staple commodities is exerting pressure on prices due to an increase in demand in spite of the below-average harvest since Uganda’s staple prices remain competitive. Below-normal income levels because of reduced crop sales are expected to constrain poor households’ purchasing power.

In Karamoja, significantly below-average harvests have left poor households highly reliant on market purchases to meet their minimum food needs. Insecurity from cattle thefts continues to negatively affect poor households by denying them the ability to access income for food purchase and safe grazing areas for their herds. Below-average terms of trade following high staple prices and below-average incomes earned from selling firewood and charcoal is limiting food access. Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes persist as many very poor households continue to limit meal sizes, substitute less preferred foods, and reduce expenditure on non-food items.

Among the refugee settlements, below-average second season rainfall has resulted in poor crop production, especially among the north and West Nile settlements. In these areas, most refugee households are minimally meeting their basic needs through small harvest, income-earning opportunities – though at lower levels than prior to the COVID-19 pandemic – and, most vitally, humanitarian assistance consisting of about 60-70 percent of basic kilocalorie needs. Among those worst-affected who were unable to harvest or who face difficulty accessing income to purchase even small amounts of food, Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are likely.

For the settlements in the southwest, refugees are now receiving assistance meeting only 40 percent of their basic kilocalorie needs. In these areas, though, the second season harvest was relatively better and is improving food consumption. Overall economic activity and livelihood options are relatively better in the refugee settlements in the southwest, and this also supports relatively greater food access than in northern refugee settlements. However, among those who were unable to harvest and face difficulty accessing income-earning opportunities – which have declined since the start of the pandemic – it is likely they are facing food consumption gaps even in the presence of humanitarian food assistance. Overall, Stressed! (IPC Phase 2!) outcomes persist at the area-level, signifying that over 80 percent of the population is minimally meeting their basic food needs with the support of assistance, though they are unable to meet their non-food needs, and a proportion of the population is in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) or Emergency (IPC Phase 4), even in the presence of ongoing assistance.