Famine Early Warning Systems Network

The March-June rains have been late, poorly distributed, and significantly below average. Current deficits range from -25 to more than -200 millimeters (mm), which is less than 55 to 85 percent of normal (Figure 1). In the center-north of the country, the period of March 1st to April 20th was one of the top three driest periods on record, with many northern areas experiencing a delayed onset of 10 to more than 40 days. In southern Uganda and parts of central and eastern Uganda, a false start of season in late February/early March subsided into a long, severe dry spell lasting at least six weeks, immediately after farmers had planted (Figure 2). Drier-than-normal conditions were driven in large part by Tropical Cyclone Idai in southern Africa. Light to moderate rainfall generally did not begin until the second week of April, while current increase in rainfall activity has improved crop conditions in central and eastern Uganda.

Poor March-April rainfall performance has interrupted seasonal agricultural activities and cut the normal growing period in half. Severe moisture deficits exceeding 100 mm, coupled with land surface temperatures three to eight C° above average, delayed planting and caused widespread germination failure or withering and drying up of early-planted crops. Normally, crops would have attained 15-45 percent growth by this point in the season, reaching the advanced vegetative to early reproductive stages. Although below-average rainfall in April prompted farmers to plant or re-plant, these activities are sporadic due to the rains’ uneven spatial and temporal distribution. Late-planted and late-maturing crops are unlikely to attain physiological maturity by the end of the season. Some parts of the southwest have received relatively more rain, but crop performance is also poor to average in these areas, characterized by poor flowering, stunting, and less vigor. In a rapid field assessment by FEWS NET in mid-April, Fall Army Worm (FAW) infestation was observed on the early vegetative maize crop in about three of every five maize fields in central districts and isolated parts of eastern Uganda. FAW is known to thrive in below-average rainfall conditions and is already damaging maize foliage.

Given the impact on crop production, there are significantly below-normal opportunities for agriculture labor. As a result, many poor households are engaging in stressed consumption and livelihoods coping strategies to meet their minimum food needs, due to reduced income to purchase food. Further, the availability of seasonal vegetables is limited, which normally supplements food sources, especially during the lean season. This is most severe in Karamoja region, where alternative livelihoods are limited and Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes already exist.   Although the unimodal season begins later, in April, Karamoja also experienced a delayed or false rainfall onset. Rainfall was 10 to 30 days late in most areas, causing most farmers to delay ploughing and planting activities. In parts of southern Karamoja, a false onset in early March prompted some farmers to plant, but these crops dried up due to water stress and farmers have limited capacity to replant.

Pasture and water availability for livestock and water availability for human consumption are below-average, according to field reports and indicated by the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) (Figure 3). Teso, Lango, and Karamoja sub-regions, as well as select districts like Nakansongola and Ntoroko, are worst affected. Livestock body conditions and productivity are consequently below-average. Some slow pasture and water recovery is now occurring in some areas due to sporadic, light to heavy rainfall since April 20th. In anticipation of the start of agricultural activities in Acholi and Lango, some livestock from Karamoja, which had migrated to these dry season grazing areas, were driven out back to their home kraals before they could benefit from increased rainfall in those sub-regions. In Karamoja, the combined pressure on pasture and water resources by local herds plus herds that have in-migrated from Turkana is quickly exhausting the few resources that remain. Pasture deterioration has also been exacerbated by traditional burning practices during the dry season.

In March, the price of most staple foods slightly increased across main bi-modal markets but remained near or below the five-year average (Figures 4 and 5). However, despite generally favorable food prices, below-average incomes are constraining food access in areas of concern. Maize retail prices remained near the five-year average, but rose above the 2018 and February averages. Beans traded near average compared to the five-year, 2018, and February averages. In Soroti, a reference market for Teso sub-region, the retail price of cassava, sorghum, sweet potatoes and millet remained below the 2018 average, but beans and rice increased by 10-20 percent. Notably, the price of cassava chips significantly declined by 48 and 41 percent below the 2018 and five-year averages, respectively. At this point in the season, observed price changes are normal and attributed to seasonal increases in domestic demand for consumption and seed.

In Karamoja, sorghum prices displayed mixed trends in March compared to the five-year average, with increases observed in Nakapiripirit and Kaabong and decreases in Moroto and Napak. However, prices significantly increased by 18-72 percent compared to March 2018, except in Kaabong where prices remained stable. In comparison to February, sorghum prices sharply increased by 16 and 65 percent in Kotido and Nakapiripirit, respectively, but remained stable in Moroto, Napak, and Kaabong. The availability of low-priced, surplus sorghum from aggregate bimodal production in 2018 has continued to supply Karamoja markets, keeping prices below the five-year average. However, limited income opportunities restrict poor households from making sufficient food purchases. Further, the price of firewood and charcoal and the casual labor wage has significantly declined compared to February and the March 2018 and five-year averages, reducing household purchasing power.

Maize and sorghum export volumes to Kenya have rapidly declined in the first quarter of 2019 and are expected to continue to decline, due to high domestic demand. In the first quarter of 2019, Uganda’s maize exports to Kenya declined 90 percent compared to the preceding quarter and by 96 percent compared to the 2018 first quarter and five-year average. Sorghum exports to Kenya were also below average. However, sorghum exports to South Sudan increased 188 and 211 percent above the 2018 first quarter and five-year average. Meanwhile, bean exports to South Sudan and Kenya were 75 and 212 percent above 2018, respectively, and 125 and 100 percent above the five-year averages, respectively. Given the ongoing border closure, exports to Rwanda declined by 52 and 60 percent with respect to the last quarter and five-year averages, respectively.

As a result of the above factors, Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes persist among poor households in Karamoja, primarily in Kotido, Moroto, and Kaabong districts but increasingly in Nakapiripirit and Abim. In a FEWS NET field assessment in April, poor households widely reported one meal per day for adults, which is typical in the lean season, but with heavy reliance on wild edible leaves and brew dregs mixed with maize or cassava flour. As declining terms of trade and seasonally low household income increasingly constrain access to food, consumption gaps are widening and the prevalence of acute malnutrition is rising. However, worse acute malnutrition outcomes are being mitigated by ongoing WFP supplementary feeding, school feeding, and mother-to-child nutrition programs. In addition to Karamoja, reduced agricultural labor opportunities, little to no availability of seasonal vegetables, and the exhaustion of food stocks from the previous harvest in eastern and northeastern Uganda has led to an increase in the population size experiencing Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes. Areas of concern that are Stressed (IPC Phase 2) include northern districts in Eastern region, eastern districts in Northern region, and Nakasangola district in Central region.

As of March 31, Uganda hosted a total of 1,239,912 refugees and asylum-seekers, including 16,800 who arrived in March and 17,100 who arrived in February. Most refugees continue to originate from South Sudan and DRC, which account for 65 and 27 percent, respectively, of the refugee population. Refugees continue to receive a full ration of food through WFP, which maintains Stressed! (IPC Phase 2!) outcomes. However, below-average rainfall has equally affected refugees in their settlement locations. Most households have had to delay planting, presenting the risk that late-maturing crops whose growing period has been significantly reduced will not physiologically mature.