Uganda

Latest food security analysis

Key Message Update

May - September 2026

High fuel prices and restrictions intended to curb Ebola will affect food access

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In May, poor households in Karamoja and refugees — primarily from South Sudan and the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) — remain populations of highest concern for acute food insecurity. FEWS NET estimates 1.0 to 2.49 million people to be experiencing Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes or worse. Needs are likely to peak in May (the height of the lean season) ahead of the first season harvests in June. Refugees’ food access remains restricted by minimal access to land for own production, particularly in West Nile, and high competition for income-generating opportunities. In Karamoja, food access remains limited by chronic poverty, which far exceeds levels in the rest of the country due to the semi-arid region’s limited crop production potential and herd sizes diminished by years of cattle rustling.
The March-May rains have overall supported near-average greenness and vegetation health across most of the country, despite spatiotemporal anomalies in rainfall distribution. Onset occurred atypically early, in February rather than March, with above-average rainfall through the end of March; however, a notable dry spell occurred in early to mid-April, when rainfall usually peaks. The dry spell disrupted agricultural production, delaying planting in some areas and wilting crops countrywide early in the season. Rainfall in April was insufficient for planting in parts of both unimodal and bimodal zones; as a result, many crops suffered stunted growth, forcing farmers to pivot to late-season planting and irrigation strategies. May rainfall was near average in most areas and sufficient for early growth and crop recovery for households whose planting cycles had been disrupted, supporting near-average conditions in most areas for this time in the season.
In May, the World Health Organization recognized an Ebola outbreak in Ituri Province, DRC. In response, Uganda closed its border with the DRC (with exceptions for healthcare efforts and formal cargo trade) and implemented precautions, including temporary market suspensions in border districts. Negative impacts on food access for households along the border are expected: market closures and disrupted trade and agricultural labor supply from the DRC are affecting harvesting and post-harvest processing, and forcing people to travel further to access markets. Poor households, who depend heavily on markets for food purchases, will be worst affected. Uganda has experience managing Ebola outbreaks and retains a relatively robust monitoring capacity and generally high public trust in health officials. In the DRC, many factors make virus containment extremely challenging: the scale of the outbreak (already the third largest on record), poor monitoring capacity, insufficient medical facilities and equipment, distrust of healthcare workers, and traditional burial practices involving contact with the deceased who remain contagious. The outbreak is expected to continue for the foreseeable future in DRC, and cases will continue to spill over into Uganda, necessitating prolonged implementation of precautions.
In bimodal areas (central, southern, and western regions, plus parts of the north and eastern Uganda), improvements in food availability from green harvests are beginning and expected to continue through June-July, driven by anticipated near-average harvests. Harvests are expected to be near average in most areas, except in some western and central regions (particularly areas around Lake Victoria, which received below-average rainfall in April-May that is expected to drive localized below-average yields). However, the flow of these supplies to some market areas near the DRC border is likely to be disrupted by the ongoing precautionary measures for Ebola containment.
In Karamoja (the unimodal semi-arid region in the northeast), the lean season is nearing its end. Improved food access is expected through September (the end of the rainy season), driven by seasonal increases in pasture and water availability. Rainfall was average to above average from February to May, but below-average rainfall is expected from June through September. Most farmers planted staple crops late (sorghum, maize, and beans), while others replanted due to the prolonged April dry spell. These delays will likely push the harvest into September and October, compared to the typical July-August period, with below-average harvests for replanted crops. Above-average pasture conditions and water availability, combined with ongoing vaccination initiatives, have improved livestock conditions and increased milk availability. Livestock prices remain above average for this point in the lean season due to good body conditions and restocking programs, which have created local demand.
The refugee and asylum seeker population surpassed 2 million in April, amid already strained support systems, and remains the largest refugee population of any African country. The majority have come from South Sudan (52 percent), with around 33 percent from the DRC, 5 percent from Sudan, and 10 percent from other countries. Food access for refugee households is severely strained due to a combination of limited access to land and agricultural inputs, which restrict capacity for own food production, in conjunction with reduced income‑earning opportunities that constrain economic access to food purchases. In response to UN appeals, the US recently announced a 1.8 billion USD grant for humanitarian assistance worldwide, of which around 75 million is expected to be allocated to Uganda to support life-saving assistance to refugees and their host communities, as well as severe acute malnutrition caused by drought and a measles outbreak.
Fuel costs were relatively stable in May following an initial 10 percent increase in April, but did start to increase toward the end of the month with the transition to newly imported fuel purchased at higher rates. Government fuel procurement policy and intervention have helped to quell fuel price speculation. The high cost of fuel is expected to continue driving above-average transport costs through at least September, leading to increases in the prices of other goods and services.
In May, food prices remained generally below long-term averages. Pass through of increasing fuel costs to food prices is not noticeable to date, but likely to begin manifesting in June. Global oil price fluctuations and exchange rate depreciation continue to drive up costs in other sectors of the economy. Ugandans’ food access has been partially insulated from the global rise in transportation costs because Uganda is a net food exporter, most Ugandans consume locally own-produced staple foods, and fuel remains slightly cheaper in Uganda compared to other countries in the region. Nonetheless, the impact of imported fuel price shocks on food prices is expected to rise as long as the Strait of Hormuz remains closed and shocks to the global fuel supply compound.

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