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Northern, bimodal areas likely to see improved food security by Vuli harvest in December/January

  • Remote Monitoring Report
  • Tanzania
  • September 2015
Northern, bimodal areas likely to see improved food security by Vuli harvest in December/January

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  • Key Messages
  • Key Messages
    • In surplus-producing areas, maize and rice prices increased from July to August, approximately one month earlier than the typical seasonal increase. This is due to less crop production than the past two years and less production than expected along with continued demand for purchases by the National Food Reserve Agency (NFRA) as it replenishes its stock and for export, primarily to Kenya. Prices will likely continue to increase, especially in the northern and central areas of the country where production was below-average. However, forecast above-average September to December Vuli rains will likely result in an average to above-average harvest in northern, bimodal areas, and thus help stabilize food availability and prices during that harvest in January 2016.

    • An additional 7,226 refugees and asylum seekers arrived in Kigoma Region from Burundi from August 23 to September 22. The large number of arrivals led to overcrowding in Nyarugusu Camp, which was holding nearly three times the number of people it was designed to hold. As a result, a new camp has been opened at Nduta in Kibondo District. With the large number of arrivals, supplies and services have been stretched beyond their intended capacities. Most households in the camps are Stressed (IPC Phase 2!) but only with the presence of humanitarian assistance.

    • In the northern bimodal area, the July to August Masika harvest was below-average. Low incomes from agricultural labor and crop sales along with increasing maize prices have led to far less food access than is typical for the harvest and post-harvest period. Labor income from land preparation, planting, and weeding of Vuli crops will provide some income and increased food access in October and November. However, poor households will likely remain Stressed (IPC Phase 2) until December or January when the Vuli harvest starts and food access returns to normal.

    • In Dodoma, Singida, Tabora, and Shinyanga Regions, poor households in the lowlands in the Rift Valley remain in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) due to very low agricultural production, low incomes from labor, and limited income from cash crop sales. However, food prices in these areas have become more stable due to sales by the National Food Reserve Agency (NFRA) and supplies coming in from the harvest in surplus-producing areas. In October and November, most poor households are likely to move into Stressed (IPC Phase 2), as land preparation and planting of unimodal Msimu crops provides much needed agricultural labor income for food purchases. Most areas should improve to Minimal (IPC Phase 1) by April when the green harvest starts.


      For more detailed analysis, see the Tanzania Remote Monitoring Update for August 2015.


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    In remote monitoring, a coordinator typically works from a nearby regional office. Relying on partners for data, the coordinator uses scenario development to conduct analysis and produce monthly reports. As less data may be available, remote monitoring reports may have less detail than those from countries with FEWS NET offices. Learn more about our work here.

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