Total crops harvested in 2014 will likely be similar to 2013

• Ongoing harvests in unimodal areas and the green harvest in bimodal areas have improved food availability and decreased household demand from markets. Staple food prices have stabilized, and they will likely decrease over the coming months due to the increased supplies.
• Food prices along the borders are increasing in response to growing demand for maize and rice for cross-border trade. The approaching Masika harvest will likely stabilize prices starting in July, but demand from neighboring countries is expected to remain elevated.
• Some unimodal areas in Dodoma experienced below normal rains over the past three months, reducing crop growth and likely yields in the harvests. Household food stocks will not be replenished fully, and income from crop sales will be low. Food access will become more limited by July.

The Masika rains ended in the bimodal areas in early June, with most areas receiving normal to above-normal cumulative March to May rainfall that will likely lead to average harvests. Most crops in bimodal areas have reached maturity. The green harvest started in the lowland, bimodal areas, providing own produced food to households that had been entirely reliant on market purchases due to the below normal Vuli  harvest in January/February. Minimal (IPC Phase 1) food insecurity will continue through September.

In the unimodal areas, rainfall that was anticipated to continue beyond the typical season from November to May has ended without major crop losses or a significant impact on quality. Harvesting and drying of crops are ongoing. Households have adequate food supplies from ongoing harvests.

Food supplies are stable in markets from both the ongoing harvests and the release of last year’s stocks. Mature crops currently being harvested have not yet adequately dried. Prices will start their seasonal decline when the maize and rice are ready for sales. Minimal (IPC phase 1) food insecurity will remain until September. However, in the marginal rainfall areas of Dodoma, household food stocks may  be depleted by July.

Maize prices in the main grain-producing, southern markets of Songea, Mbeya, and Iringa declined seasonally due to the start of the Msimu harvest in May. Msiumu yields are expected to be above average, similar to 2013 production. Maize prices declined significantly in the southeastern coastal markets of Mtwara and Lindi due to the above-average harvest of maize and the early availability of cheaper substitutes for maize including sweet potatoes and cassava. Good market availability and falling prices are ensuring food access to poor households when incomes are low before the harvesting cash crops in these areas like sesame (simsim) in July and cashews in  December.

Maize prices in bimodal areas including Dodoma and Dar es Salaam are high, but they have remained unseasonably stable in most areas due to the imminent release of harvests. Prices are still rising in other bimodal areas as the Masika harvest approaches. The Kenyan Government has asked to purchase 200,000 metric tons (MT) of maize from the Tanzanian Government. Negotiations are still occurring, but they will likely receive at least 50,000 MT. WFP plans to distribute 24,000 MT of maize within Tanzania in cooperation with the government to combat food insecurity. Rice prices have remained stable across most markets, but are still below or about the five-year average due to the availability of last year’s harvest. Rice prices increased unseasonably in producing areas near Mbeya and Dar es Salaam. In these areas market supply from 2013 is being drawn down due to high demand. In Mwanza, Kigoma, and Iringa, prices are still lower than last year, but 22 percent above the five-year average due to high demand for exports to Kenya, Burundi, Rwanda, Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), and Uganda. High rice prices are providing income for the rice producers who use much of it to purchase their preferred staple,  maize.

Bean crops are normally planted towards the end of the rainy season. This season, in the western, bean-growing areas of Kigoma and Tabora, the rains stopped while beans were at the pod stage. Bean yield will be 30 to 40 percent of normal as they received inadequate moisture. Dry bean prices were seasonably stable across most markets between April and May. In Kigoma, prices increased due to the expectation of below-average production. In unimodal areas, the bean harvest has started reaching the market, but prices have remained stable, not declining seasonally.

Pastoral and agropastoral households in Kilimanjaro, Arusha, Manyara, Shinyanga, Morogoro, Tabora, Mwanza, Mara, and Pwani have had adequate pasture and water available for livestock. Milk production for household consumption and for sale has been normal. It is anticipated that pasture will start deteriorating later than usual, mid-August instead of July, due to the additional rains that fell late in the rainy season and just afterwards into June. Households will continue receiving favorable terms of trade for animals to sorghum, enabling these households to access food from markets through September.

This outlook would change significantly if cross-border food trade to neighboring countries exceeds the estimated and already anticipated 500, 000 to 600,000 metric tons (MT) of maize surplus. This cross-border trade may create localized market shortages and thus increase food prices beyond the ability of low income households to pay. These households normally produce low value, perishable, non-cereal crops like bananas, cassava, and sweet potatoes. While these provide food during this season, most households still supplement these crops through market purchases.

Central Dodoma

In the central areas of Dodoma, Msimu rains ended in April, almost an entire month early. The delayed start and erratic rains left some crops underdeveloped, which will likely yield 50 to 60 percent of normal. In 2013, this area had low crop yields that lead to early market purchases. Also, households lost their  chickens, an important source of income, in an outbreak of Newcastle disease. Current income sources are from chickens, charcoal, and firewood sales. As charcoal and firewood sales are destructive to the environment, the government is trying to manage these natural resources and limit their collection. However, these limitations have left households without a typical way in which they expand their income. Chicken raising can increase the household’s income and access to food, but the area remains at risk for another outbreak of Newcastle disease due to an inadequate cold chain for distribution of the vaccine. The disease will likely recur in or around September. This area is currently at Minimal (IPC Phase 1) but will progressively move to Stressed (IPC phase 2) in August as cash and household food stocks are depleted. The government will likely provide food assistance to the affected households. However, delays to interventions are possible.