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Consecutive below-average harvests in the northeast likely to maintain Stressed outcomes

  • Remote Monitoring Report
  • Tanzania
  • January 2016
Consecutive below-average harvests in the northeast likely to maintain Stressed outcomes

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  • Key Messages
  • Key Messages
    • Staple food supplies remain high despite a below-average 2015 harvest, due to the National Food Reserve Agency (NFRA)’s sale of maize in deficit areas as well as reduced exports to neighboring countries. Most rice and bean markets are recording stable prices at 5-year averages. Despite stable supplies and prices, access to food by poor households will remain constrained, especially for those who started sourcing food from markets earlier than normal in the Rift Valley and Central areas. 

    • Humanitarian assistance remains the main source of food for refugees and asylum-seekers from Burundi and the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). According to UNHCR, 4,208 additional refugees were registered in Tanzania between December 31 and January 20, for a total of 192,561 people distributed among the Nyarugusu and Nduta. These populations are likely to remain Stressed (IPC Phase 2!), even with the ongoing humanitarian assistance.

    • The Vuli rains in the northeastern bimodal areas continue to be erratic. Crops are currently at late vegetative to maturing stages, but production will likely be below average. Households that were Stressed (IPC Phase 2) as a result of the below-average 2015 Masika season will remain Stressed beyond the upcoming harvest. Agricultural labor from the current season and the upcoming March-May Masika rainy season will continue to provide income for poor, labor-dependent households.

    • Planting was delayed by three to four weeks in many parts of the central Rift Valley due to the delayed start of seasonal rainfall. While rains picked up in January, a prolonged February dry spell may damage the newly-planted crops. Agricultural labor is typical but the majority of poor households are apportioning their time between casual labor and attending their own farms. Other income opportunities like charcoal-making remain seasonally low. Households will remain Stressed (IPC Phase 2) until harvests begin in April, when they will likely move to None (IPC Phase 1). 

      For more detailed analysis, see the Remote Monitoring Update for December.

    Figures

    Figure 1

    Source:

    In remote monitoring, a coordinator typically works from a nearby regional office. Relying on partners for data, the coordinator uses scenario development to conduct analysis and produce monthly reports. As less data may be available, remote monitoring reports may have less detail than those from countries with FEWS NET offices. Learn more about our work here.

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