Food prices likely to rise in northern markets

Farmers in major producing areas have received low income from the unseasonably low maize and rice prices since September due to a 1,000,000 MT grain surplus, limiting their household access to food and nonfood needs. This may limit investment of fertilizers, improved seeds, and insecticides in Masika and Msimu seasons, but these households will likely remain at Minimal (IPC Phase 1) through March. 

In the northern markets of Moshi, Arusha, Mwanza, and Musoma informal exports to Kenya and high transport costs mainly from the southern highland are likely to increase food prices starting in January. Harvest labor opportunities in January and February will be limited due to low maize production in Vuli season. Poor households in these areas will likely be Stressed (IPC Phase 2) by February. 

The northeastern lowlands of Tanga, Kilimanjaro, Manyara, and Morogoro had late, below average, and poorly distributed rains. Below normal crop production in the already reduced maize planted area in this Vuli season will result in low food supply and will likely increase market prices in January, two months earlier than expected. Households will likely be Stressed (IPC Phase 2) by February. 

The Rift Valley areas of Dodoma and Singida had poor rainfall during the 2013/14 Msimu season, resulting in below normal harvests. Household food stocks that normally last through November depleted in August. Households currently are accessing low priced staples through income from casual on-farm labor, but will remain Stressed (IPC Phase 2) until green harvesting starts in March.