Long dry spell in February and March may lead to Crisis (IPC Phase 3) by August in central Rift Valley

Following a longer than usual dry spell in February and March, some crops did not recover in the central Rift Valley and surrounding midlands in parts of Singida, Dodoma, Tabora, Manyara, Kigoma, and Shinyaga Regions. While there may be some harvest from late-planted crops, the Msiumu harvest in July will be well below average in many areas. The areas with the smallest harvest and fewest agricultural labor opportunities are likely to move into Crisis (IPC Phase 3) by July or August, having few households stocks and less income than usual.

Maize, rice, and sorghum yields are likely to be very low, but some additional recovery may occur for beans, other legumes, and cotton. On individual farms in the central Rift Valley and nearby midlands, some households may not harvest any grain. Consumption of green crops has not started.

In some parts of the central Rift Valley and nearby midlands, as it became apparent that local crop production would be well below average, maize prices started to rise unusually in March. Prices are likely to rise further through June as more traders become aware of likely local production shortfalls and before maize from the Southern Highlands enters the market.

Poor households in the central Rift Valley and surrounding midlands are likely to remain in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) until October, when land preparation begins and demand for agricultural labor is likely to seasonally increase, leading to a recovery of incomes.