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Poor start for Msimu and Vuli seasons likely to exacerbate food insecurity

  • Key Message Update
  • Tanzania
  • November 2016
Poor start for Msimu and Vuli seasons likely to exacerbate food insecurity

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  • Key Messages
  • Key Messages
    • Food insecurity has worsened to Stressed (IPC Phase 2) acute food insecurity in northern and central Tanzania, likely through March 2017 when the dry harvest will be available, as poor households face difficulties due to depleted food stocks. A delayed onset of the September to May Msimu rains in transition areas in Kagera, Kigoma, Shinyanga, Geita, and Mwanza regions, coupled with a similarly poor Vuli onset in Arusha, Kilimanjaro, Tanga, and Pwani regions, has reduced household income due to the drop in demand for agricultural labor.  

    • The lean season through February is likely to be severe as substantial Vuli crop and income losses are expected due to the forecast for continued below-average rainfall driven by La Niña, especially in northeastern areas. Purchasing power for poor households is already low, following the below-average Masika harvest. From September to October, maize prices have risen by 10 to 16 percent in northern bimodal areas, and dry bean prices are up by 30 percent in northeastern markets.

    • The rate of Burundian arrivals since April 2015 has escalated four-fold since July to about 177,335 refugees as of November 6. Most refugees are currently facing Stressed (IPC Phase 2!) acute food insecurity outcomes as they are expected to be able to harvest their own production and provide labor to surrounding farms, while being supported by humanitarian assistance. However, refugees, who arrived after the August Masika harvest, are likely to remain in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) because they have little access to land or productive capacities.

    • WFP has indicated that a significant pipeline shortfall could occur after December unless additional funding is sourced for the refugees in camps in Kagera and Kigoma regions. Since the funding is not yet secured, this means that the majority of refugees in Stressed (IPC Phase 2!) could face Crisis (IPC Phase 3) acute food security outcomes through May 2017, which is reflected in the FEWS NET mapping.  

    This Key Message Update provides a high-level analysis of current acute food insecurity conditions and any changes to FEWS NET's latest projection of acute food insecurity outcomes in the specified geography. Learn more here.

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