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East Africa Regional Maize Supply and Market Outlook

  • Supply and Market Outlook
  • East Africa
  • November 29, 2023
East Africa Regional Maize Supply and Market Outlook

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  • Key Messages
  • Key Messages
    • This report summarizes the supply and market outlook for maize in Tanzania, Uganda, Ethiopia, Kenya, Somalia, South Sudan, Rwanda, and Burundi for the 2023/24 marketing year (MY), from July 2023 to June 2024. For Ethiopia, the MY is from October 2023 to September 2024. This includes two main harvests: 2023 May-to-August and 2023/2024 October-to-February. While the May-to-August harvest estimates are more reliable, the October-to-February harvests are estimates and may be updated as new data become available.
    • East Africa is expected to have a net surplus of 1,700,000 MT of maize in MY 2023/24, which is 119 and 46 percent higher than last year and the five-year (2018 to 2022) average driven by reduced shortfalls in the deficit-producing countries (estimated at 67 and 49 percent below last year and the recent five-year average), forecasted El Nino- enhanced rainfall and improved production which is 10 percent above average in the region, including a 26 percent increase in production in Tanzania.
    • The region is projected to have a surplus that is 45 percent above the recent five-year average. In Tanzania, the exportable surplus is expected to be 36 percent above average in MY 2023/24, while Uganda and Ethiopia will average levels. The maize deficit in Burundi, Kenya, and South Sudan is expected to be 159, 68, and 16 percent lower than the five-year average, decreasing the regional shortfall. However, in Somalia, the deficit is expected to be 18 percent lower than last year but 30 percent above average due to poor performance of the June-to-September rainfall across the southern and northwestern areas of the country.
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