Supply and Market Outlook

East Africa Regional Maize Supply and Market Outlook

November 2022

IPC v3.1 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Outcomes may be worse than mapped, but available evidence is insufficient to confirm or deny
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.

IPC v3.1 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

IPC v3.1 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

Presence countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
National Parks/Reserves
Remote monitoring
countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Outcomes may be worse than mapped, but available evidence is insufficient to confirm or deny
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
Concentration of displaced people – hover over maps to view food security phase classifications for camps in Somalia, Sudan, and Uganda.
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

Key Messages

  • This report summarizes the supply and market outlook for maize in Tanzania, Uganda, Ethiopia, Kenya, Somalia, South Sudan, Rwanda, and Burundi for the 2022/23 marketing year (MY), spanning from July 2022 to June 2023. For Ethiopia, the MY is from October 2022 to September 2023. This includes two main harvests: 2022 May-to-August and 2022/2023 October-to-February. While the May-to-August harvest estimates are more reliable, the October-to-February harvests are estimates and may be updated as new data become available.

  • Preliminary estimates suggest that the region is expected to face a production deficit of around 97,000 MT in MY 2022/23, which is 112 and 108 percent lower than last year and the recent five-year average level, respectively (Figure 1). Maize production has been declining since 2020/21 because of poor rainfall performance, and 2022/23 opening stocks are 21 and 41 percent below last year and the recent five-year average levels.

  • In Tanzania, a major regional supplier, the exportable surplus is expected to be 20 percent below average in MY 2022/23, while Uganda and Ethiopia will have 67 and 87 percent below-average exportable surpluses, respectively (Figure 2). The maize deficit in Burundi, South Sudan, Rwanda, Kenya, and Somalia are expected to be five, six, 12, 86, and 103 percent higher than average as production in these countries decreases, widening the regional surplus.

  • Maize prices across the region will remain high because of below-average harvest, high demand, currency depreciation, and high inflation. Market-based response activities involving maize and substitute commodities should consider the projected market and trade dynamics presented in this report.

About FEWS NET

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network is a leading provider of early warning and analysis on food insecurity. Created by USAID in 1985 to help decision-makers plan for humanitarian crises, FEWS NET provides evidence-based analysis on approximately 30 countries. Implementing team members include NASA, NOAA, USDA, USGS, and CHC-UCSB, along with Chemonics International Inc. and Kimetrica.
Learn more About Us.

Link to United States Agency for International Development (USAID)Link to the United States Geological Survey's (USGS) FEWS NET Data PortalLink to U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA)
Link to National Aeronautics and Space Administration's (NASA) Earth ObservatoryLink to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) National Weather Service, Climage Prediction CenterLink to the Climate Hazards Center - UC Santa BarbaraLink to KimetricaLink to Chemonics