East Africa Regional Maize Supply and Market Outlook

This report summarizes the supply and market outlook for maize in Tanzania, Uganda, Ethiopia, Kenya, Somalia, South Sudan, Rwanda, and Burundi for the 2022/23 marketing year (MY), spanning from July 2022 to June 2023. For Ethiopia, the MY is from October 2022 to September 2023. This includes two main harvests: 2022 May-to-August and 2022/2023 October-to-February. While the May-to-August harvest estimates are more reliable, the October-to-February harvests are estimates and may be updated as new data become available.

Preliminary estimates suggest that the region is expected to face a production deficit of around 97,000 MT in MY 2022/23, which is 112 and 108 percent lower than last year and the recent five-year average level, respectively (Figure 1). Maize production has been declining since 2020/21 because of poor rainfall performance, and 2022/23 opening stocks are 21 and 41 percent below last year and the recent five-year average levels.

In Tanzania, a major regional supplier, the exportable surplus is expected to be 20 percent below average in MY 2022/23, while Uganda and Ethiopia will have 67 and 87 percent below-average exportable surpluses, respectively (Figure 2). The maize deficit in Burundi, South Sudan, Rwanda, Kenya, and Somalia are expected to be five, six, 12, 86, and 103 percent higher than average as production in these countries decreases, widening the regional surplus.

Maize prices across the region will remain high because of below-average harvest, high demand, currency depreciation, and high inflation. Market-based response activities involving maize and substitute commodities should consider the projected market and trade dynamics presented in this report.