East Africa Regional Maize Supply and Market Outlook

Maize, wheat, rice, and, and sorghum are important staple foods in East Africa. In Burundi, Rwanda, Kenya, Tanzania, and Uganda, domestic maize production contributes over 50 percent of the national grain supply. Maize contributes relatively less in Ethiopia, Somalia, and South Sudan, ranging from nine to 29 percent

This report summarizes the supply and market outlook for maize in Tanzania, Uganda, Ethiopia, Kenya, Somalia, South Sudan, Rwanda and Burundi for the 2020/21 marketing year (MY), spanning July 2020 to June 2021 (for Ethiopia the MY is October 2020 to September 2021). This includes two main harvests: 2020 May-to-August harvest and 2020/2021 October-to-February. While the May-to-August harvest estimates are more reliable, the October-to-February harvests are estimates and may be updated as new data become available.

Preliminary estimates suggest that 2020/21 production in surplus Tanzania and Uganda was higher than 2019/20 and five-year average levels. Ethiopia’s production is estimated as similar to 2019/20 and thirteen percent above five-year average levels. Ethiopia’s production is estimated at 15 and eight percent below last year and recent five-year average levels. Harvests in import-dependent Kenya was 31 and 24 percent higher than last year and recent five-year average levels because of good performance of the May-to-October rains. Production in Burundi and Rwanda was above average.

After accounting for domestic opening stocks, production, and requirements, the region will have above average aggregate surpluses. only Tanzania is expected to have above-average exportable maize surplus (Figure 2), while Uganda and Ethiopia will have below-average surplus. Aggregate regional exportable surpluses will be 32 percent below average. Kenya, South Sudan, Rwanda, Burundi, and Somalia will have minor deficits. Although the regional maize market is expected to be robust, prices will remain high because of worsening economic conditions in some countries and delayed and higher trade costs because of COVID-19 screenings. Market-based response activities involving maize and substitutes should consider this report’s projected market and trade dynamics.