Supply and Market Outlook

East Africa Regional Supply and Market Outlook

November 2019

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Not mapped
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

Presence countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
National Parks/Reserves
Remote monitoring
countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
Not mapped
Concentration of displaced people – hover over maps to view food security phase classifications for camps in Somalia, Sudan, and Uganda.
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET continues to monitor food security conditions in areas mapped in gray.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

Key Messages

  • Maize, wheat, rice and, and sorghum are important staple foods in East Africa. Domestic maize production contributes over 50 percent of national grain supply in Burundi, Rwanda, Kenya, Tanzania and Uganda. Maize contributes to relatively less in Ethiopia, Somalia, and South Sudan, ranging from nine to 33 percent.

  • This report summarizes the supply and market outlook for maize in Tanzania, Uganda, Ethiopia, Kenya, Somalia, South Sudan, Rwanda and Burundi for the 2019/20 marketing year (MY), spanning from July 2019 to June 2020. This includes two main harvests, one spanning from May to August 2019 and another from October 2019 to February 2020. While the May-to-August production data reflect post-harvest estimates, the October-to-February data are early estimates and may be updated as post-harvest estimates are available.

  • Preliminary estimates suggest that 2019/20 production in the structurally-surplus countries of Tanzania and Uganda was lower than 2018/19. While production in Tanzania was similar to average, Uganda’s production was nine percent below average. Harvests in import-dependent Kenya and Somalia are lower than 2018/19, with Somalia’s production significantly lower than average. Production in Burundi is above average. Production is average elsewhere in the region.

  • After accounting for domestic requirements, aggregate regional exportable maize surpluses will be 18 percent below average. Tanzania and Ethiopia are expected to have above-average exportable maize surpluses, while Uganda will have a below average surplus. Kenya and South Sudan will have above average import gaps that will be filled through imports from regional markets. Maize prices are expected to remain above average regionwide. This will constrain export opportunities to central and southern Africa (e.g. the DRC and Malawi). The region will continue to import wheat and rice from well supplied international markets.

  • The regional maize market is expected to be tight and prices will remain high. Market-based response activities involving maize and substitute commodities should consider the projected market and trade dynamics presented in this report.

About FEWS NET

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network is a leading provider of early warning and analysis on food insecurity. Created by USAID in 1985 to help decision-makers plan for humanitarian crises, FEWS NET provides evidence-based analysis on some 28 countries. Implementing team members include NASA, NOAA, USDA, and USGS, along with Chemonics International Inc. and Kimetrica. Read more about our work.

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