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East Africa Regional Sorghum Supply and Market Outlook

  • Supply and Market Outlook
  • East Africa
  • March 11, 2024
East Africa Regional Sorghum Supply and Market Outlook

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  • Key Messages
  • Key Messages
    • This report presents sorghum supply and market prospects in East Africa for the 2023/24 marketing year (MY) from July 2023 to June 2024. In Ethiopia, the marketing year is October 2023 to September 2024 and includes two harvests: May-to-August 2023 and October-to-February 2023/24. May-to-August harvest estimates are typically more reliable, and October-to-February harvest estimates are updated as data becomes available.
    • Production in structurally surplus Uganda, Ethiopia, and Sudan saw a slight decline of four to eight percent below the five-year average (Figure 1). Opening stocks were significantly lower due to reduced carry-over stocks in 2022/2023, which can be attributed to the high demand for locally produced staple foods due to persistent currency depreciation following US Federal Reserve rate interest hikes in the second quarter of 2022.
    • In structurally-deficit South Sudan, production was seven percent higher than last year and stable from the five-year average. In Somalia, production was 13 percent higher than last year but is still 17 percent lower than the average. The sorghum deficit in South Sudan is expected to decrease by 24 percent from the previous year, while in Somalia, it is expected to be stable from the previous year but 28 percent lower than the five-year average.
    • East Africa will have a net surplus of sorghum of 200,000 MT in MY 2023/24 (Figure 2 and Annex 2). The amount is 36 and 91 percent below last year and the recent five-year averages respectively due to below-average rainfall, flooding, conflict-related production disruptions, and high input costs that reduced area planted.
    • Sorghum prices are expected to stay high in the region due to below-average production, high costs of production and transportation resulting from continuous currency depreciation, and increased fuel prices. Additionally, there is a high demand for locally produced food while global grain prices and shipments remain high. Any market-based response activities that involve sorghum or substitutes should consider the projected market and trade trends in this report.
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