Supply and Market Outlook

East Africa Regional Sorghum Supply and Market Outlook

March 2021

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Not mapped
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

Presence countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
National Parks/Reserves
Remote monitoring
countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
Not mapped
Concentration of displaced people – hover over maps to view food security phase classifications for camps in Somalia, Sudan, and Uganda.
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET continues to monitor food security conditions in areas mapped in grey. South Sudan remains of high concern for FEWS NET.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

Key Messages

  • Sorghum is an important staple food in East Africa. Domestic sorghum production makes important contributions to national food supply in Sudan, Somalia, and South Sudan (39, 54 and 76 percent, respectively), and smaller amounts in Ethiopia and Uganda (17 and 10 percent, respectively).

  • This report summarizes the supply and market outlook for sorghum in Somalia, South Sudan, Sudan, and Uganda. The outlook period follows the 2020/21 marketing year (MY), spanning from October 2020 to September 2021 and covering two main harvests—2020/2021 October-to-February harvest the 2021 June-to-August harvest. While the October-to-February harvest data estimates are more reliable, the June-to-August harvests are estimates and may be updated as data becomes available.

  • Preliminary production estimates suggest that the three structurally surplus countries of Ethiopia, Sudan, and Uganda had 17, 14, and six percent above average harvests, respectively (Figure 1). Regional production will be 13 percent above the recent five-year average. After incorporating domestic demand, Ethiopia, Sudan, and Uganda will have below-average surpluses respectively (Figure 2). However, the regional surplus will be 36 percent below average. Import requirements in South Sudan are expected to be above average, which is expected to pull supplies from Uganda, and, to a lesser extent, Sudan.

  • Prices are expected to be above average in Sudan, South Sudan, and Ethiopia through September 2021 mostly be driven by high inflation, currency depreciation, and domestic conflict. Prices are expected to be average to slightly above average in Uganda due to high domestic and regional demand, and average to slightly above average in Somalia because of the availability of imported substitutes.

  • Given the below-average surplus, market-based response activities including sorghum, or any substitute commodities should consider the projected market and trade dynamics put forth in this report. Monitoring the performance of upcoming harvests and macroeconomic issues (especially in Ethiopia, Sudan, and South Sudan) are essential in 2021.

About FEWS NET

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network is a leading provider of early warning and analysis on food insecurity. Created by USAID in 1985 to help decision-makers plan for humanitarian crises, FEWS NET provides evidence-based analysis on approximately 30 countries. Implementing team members include NASA, NOAA, USDA, USGS, and CHC-UCSB, along with Chemonics International Inc. and Kimetrica.
Learn more About Us.

Link to United States Agency for International Development (USAID)Link to the United States Geological Survey's (USGS) FEWS NET Data PortalLink to U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA)
Link to National Aeronautics and Space Administration's (NASA) Earth ObservatoryLink to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) National Weather Service, Climage Prediction CenterLink to the Climate Hazards Center - UC Santa BarbaraLink to KimetricaLink to Chemonics