Supply and Market Outlook

East Africa Regional Sorghum Supply and Market Outlook

April 2022

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Not mapped
Outcomes may be worse than mapped, but available evidence is insufficient to confirm or deny
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

Presence countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
National Parks/Reserves
Remote monitoring
countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Outcomes may be worse than mapped, but available evidence is insufficient to confirm or deny
Not mapped
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
Concentration of displaced people – hover over maps to view food security phase classifications for camps in Somalia, Sudan, and Uganda.
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET continues to monitor food security conditions in areas mapped in grey. South Sudan remains of high concern for FEWS NET.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

Key Messages

  • Sorghum is an important staple food in East Africa. Domestic sorghum production makes important contributions to the national food supply in Sudan, Somalia, and South Sudan (39, 56, and 75 percent, respectively), and smaller amounts in Ethiopia and Uganda (17 and 10 percent, respectively).

  • This report summarizes the supply and market outlook for sorghum in Ethiopia, Somalia, South Sudan, Sudan, and Uganda. The outlook period follows the 2021/22 marketing year (MY), spanning from October 2021 to September 2022 and covering two main harvests—2021/2022 October to February harvest the 2022 June to August harvest. While the October to February harvest data estimates is more reliable, the June to August harvest estimates may be updated as data becomes available.

  • In MY 2021/22, estimates for the regional balance and self-sufficiency, are 101% and 18% below average, respectively (Figure 1), due to preliminary estimates of below-average regional production, below-average stocks, and above-average demand. Initial production estimates (Figure 2) indicate the three structurally surplus countries of Ethiopia, Sudan, and Uganda had average to below-average harvests. Above-average demand for imports in South Sudan and Somalia is expected to divert supply from Uganda, Sudan, and Ethiopia.

  • Above-average sorghum prices are expected across the region for the rest of MY 201/22 due to increased regional demand amid below-average production. High inflation, currency depreciation, and insecurity are expected to put upward pressure on prices in Sudan, South Sudan, and Ethiopia

  • Given the below-average surplus, market-based response activities including sorghum, or any substitute commodities should consider the projected market and trade dynamics put forth in this report. Monitoring the performance of upcoming harvests and macroeconomic issues (especially in Somalia, Ethiopia, Sudan, and South Sudan) is essential in 2022.

About FEWS NET

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network is a leading provider of early warning and analysis on food insecurity. Created by USAID in 1985 to help decision-makers plan for humanitarian crises, FEWS NET provides evidence-based analysis on approximately 30 countries. Implementing team members include NASA, NOAA, USDA, USGS, and CHC-UCSB, along with Chemonics International Inc. and Kimetrica.
Learn more About Us.

Link to United States Agency for International Development (USAID)Link to the United States Geological Survey's (USGS) FEWS NET Data PortalLink to U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA)
Link to National Aeronautics and Space Administration's (NASA) Earth ObservatoryLink to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) National Weather Service, Climage Prediction CenterLink to the Climate Hazards Center - UC Santa BarbaraLink to KimetricaLink to Chemonics