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East Africa Regional Sorghum Supply and Market Outlook

  • Supply and Market Outlook
  • East Africa
  • April 19, 2022
East Africa Regional Sorghum Supply and Market Outlook

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  • Key Messages
  • Key Messages
    • Sorghum is an important staple food in East Africa. Domestic sorghum production makes important contributions to the national food supply in Sudan, Somalia, and South Sudan (39, 56, and 75 percent, respectively), and smaller amounts in Ethiopia and Uganda (17 and 10 percent, respectively).

    • This report summarizes the supply and market outlook for sorghum in Ethiopia, Somalia, South Sudan, Sudan, and Uganda. The outlook period follows the 2021/22 marketing year (MY), spanning from October 2021 to September 2022 and covering two main harvests—2021/2022 October to February harvest the 2022 June to August harvest. While the October to February harvest data estimates is more reliable, the June to August harvest estimates may be updated as data becomes available.

    • In MY 2021/22, estimates for the regional balance and self-sufficiency, are 101% and 18% below average, respectively (Figure 1), due to preliminary estimates of below-average regional production, below-average stocks, and above-average demand. Initial production estimates (Figure 2) indicate the three structurally surplus countries of Ethiopia, Sudan, and Uganda had average to below-average harvests. Above-average demand for imports in South Sudan and Somalia is expected to divert supply from Uganda, Sudan, and Ethiopia.

    • Above-average sorghum prices are expected across the region for the rest of MY 201/22 due to increased regional demand amid below-average production. High inflation, currency depreciation, and insecurity are expected to put upward pressure on prices in Sudan, South Sudan, and Ethiopia

    • Given the below-average surplus, market-based response activities including sorghum, or any substitute commodities should consider the projected market and trade dynamics put forth in this report. Monitoring the performance of upcoming harvests and macroeconomic issues (especially in Somalia, Ethiopia, Sudan, and South Sudan) is essential in 2022.

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