Key Message Update

Conflict, high prices, and flooding remain key drivers of acute food insecurity in Sudan

September 2022

September 2022

October 2022 - January 2023

IPC v3.1 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Concentration of displaced people
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
Food security outcomes for displaced populations would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance.FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.

IPC v3.1 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Concentration of displaced people
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
Food security outcomes for displaced populations would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance.FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.

IPC v3.1 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

IPC v3.1 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

Presence countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Concentration of displaced people
Remote monitoring
countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

Key Messages

  • In September, typically the peak of the lean season, humanitarian food assistance needs remain high driven by displacement, above-average staple food prices, and low household purchasing power, particularly in areas impacted by flooding and recent inter-communal clashes. In particular, Crisis (IPC Phase 3) or worse outcomes are likely to be high among households recently displaced  by intercommunal clashes in the Blue Nile, parts of Darfur, parts of Kordofan, Kassala, and Abyei PCA, and the flood-affected households and urban poor families 

  • In August and September, heavy rains resulted in flash floods and widespread flooding in many areas in Sudan. According to UN OCHA, as of September 24, around 348,700 people have been reported to be affected by heavy rainfall and flooding across Sudan, with over 73,100 homes damaged or destroyed and around 4,800 livestock killed or lost since July. According to field reports, an estimated 240,000 feddan (approximately 100,000 hectares) of cropland have been flooded, which is likely to negatively impact the upcoming harvest. The states with the highest number of people affected by flooding include South Darfur, Gedaref, Central Darfur, White Nile, and Kassala.  

  • The macroeconomic situation has continued to deteriorate in Sudan due to longstanding insecurity, political instability, persistent low foreign currency reserves, high inflation rates, and the depreciation of the SDG. In September, the SDG/USD exchange rate at commercial banks and the parallel market is trading at 569-572 SDG/USD compared to 443-448 SDG/USD in August 2021. In September, the government raised taxes on agricultural products, port fees, industry, and trade by 100 to 500 percent, resulting in strikes across Sudan as the high and increasing transportation costs and food prices, in addition to increased taxes, further constrain household purchasing power. 

  • From August to September 2022, staple food prices increased by 5 to 10 percent across most markets due to seasonally reduced market supplies, increased demand for local consumption, and high transportation costs. In late September, staple food prices remain 250-300 percent above respective prices last year and 550-700 percent above the five-year average. Sorghum and millet prices are anticipated to begin seasonally decreasing with the start of the likely below-average harvest in October 2022 but remain approximately five to six times above their five-year average across most markets through the post-harvest period in March 2023. 

About FEWS NET

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network is a leading provider of early warning and analysis on food insecurity. Created by USAID in 1985 to help decision-makers plan for humanitarian crises, FEWS NET provides evidence-based analysis on approximately 30 countries. Implementing team members include NASA, NOAA, USDA, USGS, and CHC-UCSB, along with Chemonics International Inc. and Kimetrica.
Learn more About Us.

Link to United States Agency for International Development (USAID)Link to the United States Geological Survey's (USGS) FEWS NET Data PortalLink to U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA)
Link to National Aeronautics and Space Administration's (NASA) Earth ObservatoryLink to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) National Weather Service, Climage Prediction CenterLink to the Climate Hazards Center - UC Santa BarbaraLink to KimetricaLink to Chemonics