Key Message Update

Flooding and the macroeconomic crisis drive high needs through October

September 2020

September 2020

Projected food security outcomes for July to September 2020. This map shows large areas of Sudan in Crisis (IPC Phase 3), with parts of South Kordofan, Jebel Marra, Red Sea, and Kassala states in Emergency (IPC Phase 4).

October 2020 - January 2021

Projected food security outcomes for October 2020 to January 2021. This map shows a reduction in food insecurity, with many areas now in Stressed (IPC Phase 2) and Crisis (IPC Phase 3).

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Concentration of displaced people
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
Food security outcomes for displaced populations would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance.FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Concentration of displaced people
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
Food security outcomes for displaced populations would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance.FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

Presence countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Concentration of displaced people
Remote monitoring
countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

Key Messages

  • Poor households in flood-affected areas, protracted IDPs in Darfur and South Kordofan, and parts of Red Sea, Kassala, and North Darfur states are facing Crisis (IPC Phase 3) and worse food security outcomes through October 2020. Humanitarian assistance needs are expected to remain high due to extremely high staple food prices and persistent macroeconomics challenges, which have reduced household purchasing power and has been exacerbated by the loss of assets and livelihoods from flooding.

  • The government has declared a three-month State of Emergency following the worst flooding in decades. While several assessments of the impact of the flooding have been undertaken, the range varies among reports. Additional information on the scale will be reported in FEWS NET’s October Food Security Outlook. The High Committee for Rainy Season Emergencies has warned of expected further deterioration in sanitation and hygiene conditions, which is likely to increase susceptibility to waterborne diseases among affected communities.

  • Sudan continues to face a macroeconomic crisis as the value of the Sudanese Pound continues to weaken in the parallel market. The Sudanese Pound depreciated from 170 SDG/USD in June to 270 SDG/USD by mid-September 2020. According to the Central Bureau of Statistics (CBS), the national inflation rate has increased by 72 percent over the last six months. In August 2020, the national inflation rate rose to 167 percent, an approximately 24 percent increase compared to July. The macroeconomic crisis is continuing to impact purchasing power among affected households negatively.

  • Staple food prices remain more than double the price compared to the same period last year and more than five times greater than the five-year average. Between August and September, the price of sorghum, millet, and wheat increased by 10-20 percent. The price increases are being driven by the continued depreciation of the Sudanese Pound coinciding with high demand for cereal by flood-affected households, and seasonally tightened market supplies as the lean season peaks.   

  • On August 31, after a year of negotiations, the Sudanese government and the Sudan Revolutionary Front rebel alliance (SRF) initialed a comprehensive peace agreement. The agreement includes eight protocols for Darfur, South Kordofan and Blue Nile, and central, eastern, and northern Sudan. A federal regional system of government will be re-established, and the signatories will be represented in the Sovereign Council, Ministerial council of the transitional government, and the Transitional Legislative Council. The agreement is expected to improve humanitarian assistance access and improve trade flows, food prices, and food availability to former SRF-held areas.

About FEWS NET

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network is a leading provider of early warning and analysis on food insecurity. Created by USAID in 1985 to help decision-makers plan for humanitarian crises, FEWS NET provides evidence-based analysis on approximately 30 countries. Implementing team members include NASA, NOAA, USDA, USGS, and CHC-UCSB, along with Chemonics International Inc. and Kimetrica.
Learn more About Us.

Link to United States Agency for International Development (USAID)Link to the United States Geological Survey's (USGS) FEWS NET Data PortalLink to U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA)
Link to National Aeronautics and Space Administration's (NASA) Earth ObservatoryLink to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) National Weather Service, Climage Prediction CenterLink to the Climate Hazards Center - UC Santa BarbaraLink to KimetricaLink to Chemonics