Food insecurity likely to remain worst in conflict-affected areas

Average to above-average rainfall through October is likely to lead to favorable cropping and pasture prospects that should improve food security outcomes with harvests starting in October/November. The number of people facing Crisis (IPC Phase 3) or worse acute food insecurity will likely decline significantly in the post-harvest period, most of whom are conflict-affected populations and/or IDPs in South Kordofan, Blue Nile, and Darfur States.

Heavy rains and flooding since June have damaged infrastructure and houses, destroyed crops, and delayed planting and weeding in localized areas throughout Sudan. More than 204,000 people have been directly affected and over 74,000 ha of crops destroyed by floods. States worst affected by flooding include Kassala, South Darfur, Al Gazira, Sennar, West Kordofan, Al Qadaref, White Nile, South Kordofan, and North Darfur.

Staple food prices showed mixed trends for the different markets between July and August, but in Al Qadarif, the main supply market, sorghum prices decreased by 10 percent between July and August as traders and commercial farmers began to sell off old stocks. Sorghum and millet prices in August were 24 to 32 percent higher than in August 2015, and 50 to 57 percent higher than the recent five-year average. Staple food prices are likely to begin declining seasonally in most markets with the onset of harvests in October/November. 

Recent clashes between conflicting groups in northwestern Ethiopia have temporarily driven approximately 5,000 to 10,000 refugees into Sudan since early August, though most have now returned to Ethiopia. Further deterioration of security conditions in Ethiopia would likely to result in disruption of the agricultural season in areas along the border and force more refugees from Ethiopia to flee into Sudan.