High food prices expected to drive high food assistance needs through the lean season

Across Sudan, the economic reforms and resulting high food and non-food prices are constraining household purchasing power and driving Stressed (IPC Phase 2) and Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes. The most affected households are daily wage laborers and poor farming and agropastoral communities, and IDPs and conflict-affected people in Darfur, South Kordofan, parts of Blue Nile. A higher than the typical number of households are expected to face Crisis (IPC Phase 3) and above food security outcomes during the lean season between April and September 2021.

As of March 25, 2021, the Sudanese Pound is being traded around 380 SDG/USD at commercial banks, slightly below the parallel market rate. Financial transactions of foreign currency have significantly increased in commercial banks, minimizing the gap between the managed and parallel markets. The SDG exchange rate is likely to remain stable at least through April 2021, dependent on the consistent availability of hard currency reserves. Following the SDG's devaluation, the price of locally produced and imported items has remained high but relatively stable. The high prices are expected to continue limiting household purchasing power and reduce market food access.

Staple food prices have continued to increase during the post-harvest period atypically. Between February and March, the price of sorghum, millet, and locally produced wheat increased 10 to 20 percent in most markets, 150-200 percent above respective prices last year, and 600-650 percent above the five-year average. Cereal prices are anticipated to continue increasing through the lean season driven by below-average market supplies and above-average demand for locally produced cereals due to reduced availability and high prices of imported wheat and wheat flour. The seasonally high demand during Ramadan and high production and transportation costs are also driving high food prices.