Cropping negatively impacted by fuel shortages and high prices for agricultural inputs

IDPs and poor households in SPLM-N controlled areas of South Kordofan and parts of Jebel Mara of Darfur are expected to face large food consumption gaps and be in Emergency (IPC Phase 4) through September, the peak lean season. Poor households in parts of Red Sea, North Darfur, northern Kassala, and North Kordofan will be in Crisis (IPC Phase 3). Food security is expected to improve with the beginning of the harvest in October, and most parts of Sudan will be in Minimal (IPC Phase 1) or Stressed (IPC Phase 2), though much of North Darfur, parts of Jebel Marra and South Kordofan, southern Blue Nile, northern Kassala, and parts of North Kordofan will remain in Crisis (IPC Phase 3). These outcomes are driven by poor macroeconomic conditions that are limiting poor households’ capacity to afford their basic food and non-food needs.

Fuel shortages and high prices for agricultural inputs and agricultural labor continue to negatively impact the ongoing 2019/20 season. Although these factors are relatively less important in the traditional sector, which accounts for over half of the area planted, they are key to cultivation in the semi-mechanized and irrigated sectors, which together make up slightly under half of the area cultivated.  Government fuel distributions are supporting increased cultivation to some extent, though some farmers continue to indicate that fuel shortages have resulted in delayed land preparation and planting. Planting is anticipated to continue beyond July, though the overall area planted is anticipated to be below average.

The June to September main rainy season began two to three weeks late in most parts of the country, though normal to above-normal rainfall since the onset of the rains has been favorable for crop germination and development in most traditional and semi-mechanized areas. However, in some southern and western parts of Darfur, parts of West Kordofan and northern Kassala, below-average rainfall and pest infestations have delayed crop germination or damaged crops. Conversely, heavy rainfall in some areas of North Darfur, South Darfur, Sennar, and Kassala states has caused localized flooding, affecting an estimated 13,000 people. The forecasted for above-normal rainfall is anticipated to result in further flooding in August and September.

The retail prices of main staples crops, including sorghum, millet, and locally produced wheat, continued to increase across most markets of Sudan between May and June; however, in some markets, prices remained stable or slightly decreased. Overall, staple food prices are around 70-80 percent above the same time last year and 250-300 percent above the five-year average. The persistently high cereal prices are driven by local currency depreciation and atypically high transportation costs, as well as seasonally increased demand and reduced market supply during the ongoing lean season.

Despite the recently signed declaration between the Transitional Military Council (TMC) and opposition Forces for Freedom and Change (FFC) coalition, and agreement among political and armed groups of the FFC on political and constitutional documents, tension and protests persist. Local currency depreciation and broader poor macroeconomic conditions are expected to continue. While the official SDG/USD exchange rate for July was set at 45.23 SDG/USD, it remained between 68-72 SDG/USD on the parallel market. Shortages of fuel, wheat, and other imported commodities also continue, driving high prices.