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Fuel shortages and high prices negatively impact cropping season

  • Key Message Update
  • Sudan
  • July 2018
Fuel shortages and high prices negatively impact cropping season

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  • Key Messages
  • Key Messages
    • Through September 2018, IDPs and poor households in SPLM-N controlled areas will continue to face significant food consumption gaps and be in Emergency (IPC Phase 4). Also, through September, poor households in areas of North Darfur and Kassala affected by severe dryness in 2017, refugees from South Sudan, and poor households in northern parts of Red Sea and North Kordofan will be in Crisis (IPC Phase 3). Food security will begin to improve with the harvest in October, and most parts of Sudan will be in Minimal (IPC Phase 1) or Stressed (IPC Phase 2).

    • Continuing fuel shortages and high prices for agricultural inputs are major challenges to the ongoing 2018/19 agricultural season. In semi-mechanized areas, which are the main cereal producing areas, farmers have noted the severe fuel shortage has resulted in delayed land preparation and planting. Currently, FEWS NET estimates it is likely the planting was 20 to 30 percent below average, although production is expected to be somewhat below average.   

    • Despite the likely reduced area planted, above-average rainfall to date has been favorable for crop development and pasture regeneration. The exception to this are some areas of Northern Kassala, East Darfur, parts of West Kordofan, and South Kordofan where rainfall has been below average, leading to delayed crop establishment. Meanwhile, very heavy rain has caused localized flash flooding in some areas of West Kordofan (Alnuhood), Kassala, Blue Nile, Sennar, and West and Central Darfur States where there are reports of fatalities, displacement and destruction of homes and assets. Current forecasting indicates a high likelihood of continued flooding in these areas.  

    • Between January and mid-June 2018, an estimated 21,165 new South Sudanese refugees arrived in Sudan, bringing the total number of South Sudanese refugees in Sudan to 766,046. The increased arrivals of South Sudanese refugees into Sudan is driven by the conflict in South Sudan and severe food insecurity in bordering states. Nevertheless, a typical seasonal decrease of arrivals is expected to occur with the onset on seasonal rainfall and poor road access.

    • The deteriorating macroeconomic conditions, including devaluation of the local currency and high inflation, continue to erode household purchasing power. On average, cereal prices increased up to 20 percent across markets between May and June 2018. These increases are attributed to seasonably tightened market supplies, seasonal increased demand for local consumption and cross-border trade, and extremely high cost of transportation. As a result, sorghum and millet prices are now about 200 percent above the five-year average.

    This Key Message Update provides a high-level analysis of current acute food insecurity conditions and any changes to FEWS NET's latest projection of acute food insecurity outcomes in the specified geography. Learn more here.

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