Key Message Update

Staple food prices continue to increase during the main harvest season

January 2020

January 2020

Much of Sudan is in Minimal (IPC Phase 1) or Stressed (IPC Phase 2) acute food insecurity during January 2020. Parts of western, northeastern, and southern Sudan are in Crisis (IPC Phase 3).

February - May 2020

Much of Sudan is projected to be in Stressed (IPC Phase 2) or Crisis (IPC Phase 3) between February and May 2020.

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Concentration of displaced people
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
Food security outcomes for displaced populations would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance.FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Concentration of displaced people
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
Food security outcomes for displaced populations would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance.FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

Presence countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Concentration of displaced people
Remote monitoring
countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

Key Messages

  • Harvests of the 2019/20 main agricultural season continue in the semi-mechanized areas of Sudan and have been completed in the traditional rainfed sector. According to available field information, yields for key cereals, such as sorghum and millet, are lower than usual this season due to flooding, an extended rainy season, and pest infestations. In addition, field reports suggest increases in area planted in cash crops have led to decreases in area planted for cereal crops, which is likely to drive further declines in cereal production compared to previous years. 

  • Sorghum and millet prices have increased 20 to 45 percent since November 2019 across most markets in Sudan, when prices typically decrease as harvests progress. These price increases have been attributed to expected lower than normal cereal production this year and high production and transportation costs due to continued depreciation of the Sudanese Pound. December 2019 prices for sorghum and millet remained on average 90 and 45 percent higher than last year, respectively, and 320 and 230 percent above the five-year average. Preliminary data suggest prices have continued to increase in January 2020. 

  • The Sudanese Pound has continued to depreciate, reaching 97 SDG/USD in January 2020 versus 81 SDG/USD in November 2019. This continues to limit the ability of the public and private sector to import essential items, including fuel and food commodities such as wheat. Wheat prices are currently on average 37 percent higher than in January 2019 and 232 percent above the five-year average.

  • Ongoing harvests are improving household food access in many areas in Sudan, although above-average humanitarian needs persist. High prices for staple foods and essential imported goods are continuing to lead households in Darfur, Kordofan, and Red Sea states to face difficulty meeting their livelihoods protection needs, resulting in Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes in January 2020. Most IDPs in SPLM-N controlled areas of South Kordofan, and in Jebel Marra area of Darfur and poor households in parts of Red Sea and Kassala states continue to face Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes during harvest period. Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes are expected in parts of conflict-affected South Kordofan during the end of the scenario period in May 2020. 

  • The ongoing peace talks in Juba with the SPLM-N al-Hilu and the recent visit by the Sudanese Prime Minister to the SPLM-N held areas in South Kordofan may signal future improvements in population movements and market access between SPLM-N and government-controlled areas. Should further improvements materialize, humanitarian actors may begin to access SPLM-N areas for the first time since the onset the conflict in June 2011.

About FEWS NET

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network is a leading provider of early warning and analysis on food insecurity. Created by USAID in 1985 to help decision-makers plan for humanitarian crises, FEWS NET provides evidence-based analysis on approximately 30 countries. Implementing team members include NASA, NOAA, USDA, USGS, and CHC-UCSB, along with Chemonics International Inc. and Kimetrica.
Learn more About Us.

Link to United States Agency for International Development (USAID)Link to the United States Geological Survey's (USGS) FEWS NET Data PortalLink to U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA)
Link to National Aeronautics and Space Administration's (NASA) Earth ObservatoryLink to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) National Weather Service, Climage Prediction CenterLink to the Climate Hazards Center - UC Santa BarbaraLink to KimetricaLink to Chemonics