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Macroeconomic crisis persists and is expected to drive high prices throughout 2019

  • Key Message Update
  • Sudan
  • January 2019
Macroeconomic crisis persists and is expected to drive high prices throughout 2019

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  • Key Messages
  • Key Messages
    • The harvesting of 2018/19 main season crops was completed in most rainfed livelihood zones, though the harvest is ongoing and delayed in semi-mechanized areas due to fuel and cash shortages and the high cost of labor. With the availability of harvests, food security has improved from the lean season, and many areas in Sudan are expected to sustain Minimal (IPC Phase 1) or Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes through April. However, the macroeconomic crisis is hindering food access for many poor households, and Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are expected between February and May in parts of Red Sea, Kassala, Darfur, North Kordofan, South Kordofan, Blue Nile, and among most IDPs in SPLM-N controlled areas of South Kordofan and Jebel Marra.  

    • Poor macroeconomic conditions persist, fueled by the scarcity of foreign currency, and the Sudanese Pound (SDG) stands at 61 SDG/USD on the parallel market. According to Sudan’s Central Bureau of Statistics, the December 2018 national inflation rate was 72.94 percent, compared to 68.93 percent in November 2018 and a five-year average of 27.16 percent.

    • The prices of sorghum and millet have continued increasing in December and January, which is atypical of the harvesting period. This is due to the delayed harvest in semi-mechanized sorghum-producing areas, as well as currency depreciation and the impacts of macroeconomic conditions on the cost of production and transportation. Sorghum and millet prices are on average 150 percent above last year and over 270 percent above the five-year average. Food prices are expected to further rise in 2019 and food access among poor household will be much lower than normal during the 2019 lean season when poor households are reliant on markets to access food.

    • According to UNHCR, an estimated 1,700 new refugees from South Sudan arrived in Sudan in December 2018. In total in 2018, roughly 33,117 people fled from South Sudan to Sudan, significantly lower than the estimated 195,599 arrivals in 2017. The total number of South Sudanese refugees in Sudan since mid-2013 stands around 852,000 people. Available information suggests most have access to humanitarian food assistance and are likely Stressed (IPC Phase 2!).

    This Key Message Update provides a high-level analysis of current acute food insecurity conditions and any changes to FEWS NET's latest projection of acute food insecurity outcomes in the specified geography. Learn more here.

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