Severe pasture deficits likely to trigger above-average sales and mortality of livestock

Preliminary crop estimates from the 2015/16 agricultural season suggest national cereal production could be up to 25 percent below the five-year (2009-2013) average, driven by dryness-related reductions in yield and area planted in both surplus-producing and deficit-producing areas, including eastern areas affected by El Niño. Cereal production in the key producing area of Gedaref State is likely to be below average and similar to or slightly less than in 2013/14. In North Kordofan, Kassala, and North Darfur States, the harvest is expected to be well below average. 

In December, sorghum prices in Gadaref and Kassala remained stable or increased slightly, contrary to the seasonal tendency for prices to continue decreasing in December following the harvest. Millet and sorghum prices in El Fasher, though showing declines in December, remain 40 percent above the two-year average, and are expected to continue increasing at more than usual through the rest of the consumption year. 

Pasture deficits are estimated to be very severe in most areas, particularly in North Darfur, North Kordofan, Kassala, and While Nile States, as well as the Butanah plain. These conditions have led to poor livestock body conditions, large-scale migrations of livestock two months earlier than usual, and below-average livestock prices. In Kassala market, sheep prices are 15 and 25 percent below last year and the recent two-year average, while terms-of-trade are 24 percent below the recent two-year average. Together, increasing staple food prices and decreasing livestock prices will reduce terms of trade for pastoral and agropastoral households, who will face difficulty meeting staple food needs.

Reduced purchasing power and reduced access to food from own harvests are likely to result in an earlier onset of the lean season in March 2015, with above-average needs in SPLM-N controlled areas of South Kordofan, Blue Nile, among poor residents in Northern parts of North Kordofan, North Darfur, Kassala, and new IDPs in Darfur, where food security is likely to deteriorate to Crisis (IPC Phase 3) with the start of the lean season.

 In conflict-affected areas of South Kordofan, food security outcomes are likely to worsen from Crisis (IPC Phase 3) to Emeregency (IPC Phase 4) by March 2016 among IDPs and poor residents due to below-average harvests, restricted population movements, restricted trade flow, lack of access to humanitarian assistance, sharp increases of staple food prices, reduced asset holdings due to four years of protracted conflict, and continuing insecurity.

For more detailed analysis, please see the Sudan Food Security Outlook Update for December 2015.