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Poor macroeconomic conditions and inter-communal conflicts drive high needs

  • Food Security Outlook
  • Sudan
  • June 2022 - January 2023
Poor macroeconomic conditions and inter-communal conflicts drive high needs

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  • Key Messages
  • NATIONAL OVERVIEW
  • Assumptions
  • Most Likely Food Security Outcomes
  • Key Messages
    • The below-average harvest of the 2021/22 season, significantly above-average cereal and non-cereal food prices, combined with the continued poor macroeconomic situation, political instability, and intercommunal clashes in the Darfur region, South Kordofan, Kassala, the Red Sea, and Abyei area that displaced around 220,000 people between the end of April and mid-June are driving above normal humanitarian food assistance needs in June 2022. An increasing number of people are facing Crisis (IPC Phase 3) or worse outcomes between June and September 2022.

    • With the start of the rainy season in June, the government is targeting an estimated planting area of just under 64.6 million feddans (~27.1 million hectares) for the 2022/2023 agricultural season. However, land preparation and planting have been constrained by shortages and high prices of the essential agricultural inputs due to insufficient financial support for farmers from the Agricultural Bank of Sudan (ABS) and difficulties importing agricultural inputs due to high prices and a lack of hard currency.  

    • In June 2022, staple food prices remain four to five times above the five-year average, driven by reduced market supplies, shortages and high prices of imported wheat, high inflation, and continued local currency devaluation. In June, the SDG to USD exchange rate was 23 percent higher than June 2021 and 289 percent higher than the five-year average. Food prices will likely remain extremely high through the November 2022 to January 2023 harvest. Despite some improvements in livestock prices and wage labor rates, household purchasing power remains well below average, negatively impacting household market food access. 


    NATIONAL OVERVIEW

    Humanitarian food assistance needs in June 2022 remain above normal, driven by the compounding impact of various drivers, including the below-average 2021/2022 harvest, significantly above-average cereal and non-cereal food prices, shortages and high prices of imported wheat-resulting from reduced wheat imports, and high international wheat prices-, and the ongoing poor macroeconomic conditions that are resulting in well below normal purchasing power for poor households. Additionally, the continued national political instability and the tribal clashes in parts of Darfur, Kordofan, Sennar, Blue Nile, and Red Sea states are resulting in increasing numbers of IDPs and non-displaced conflict-affected households who have lost access to their livelihood assets and typical food and income-earning activities. With the start of the lean season, the areas of Sudan most impacted by the high cost of living and conflict include conflict-affected areas in West Darfur and parts of Jebel Marra, SPLM-N areas of South Kordofan and the Blue Nile states, and poor households in the states of Red Sea, Kassala, and parts of Darfur. In these areas, households are likely to face Crisis (IPC Phase 3) and Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes in the absence of humanitarian food assistance.

    2022/23 agricultural season progress

    The start of the 2022/23 agricultural season has been constrained by shortages and high prices of agricultural inputs due to insufficient finance from the Agricultural Bank of Sudan (ABS) and a lack of hard currency to import goods. Additionally, ABS declared that farmers would not receive new credit until previous debts are settled. However, the below-average 2021/2022 harvest and the high cost of agricultural inputs will likely limit farmers' ability to pay back all their past debts. In June 2022, the fuel prices were 125 percent higher than respective prices last year, while the cost of the improved sorghum seeds, sesame seeds, sunflower seeds, and fertilizers increased by 67, 455, 332, and 25 percent, respectively, compared to the last year, and are over seven times greater compared to June 2020. According to the ABS, the total area targeted to be financed is estimated to be 8,467,875 feddans (~3,556,508 hectares), representing only 13 percent of the total targeted area for planting.

    As of June 30, there are no available government estimates on the area planted, but according to the Federal Ministry of Agriculture, the total targeted areas for staple food and cash crops for the ongoing 2022/23 agricultural season is estimated at 64,573,600 feddans (~27,131,765 hectares) approximately 6 percent lower than the targeted area for planting last year but 28 percent above the five-year average. The area targeted for sorghum is around 36 percent of the total targeted area compared to 42 percent for the last year, 18 percent lower than the area targeted for planting last year but 5 percent above the average. The area targeted for winter wheat to be planted in November 2022  is around 886,600 feddans (~372,520 hectares), 11 percent lower than last year. The reduction in the targeted area for planting is likely driven by delays in land preparation and planting and the shortage and high cost of inputs and labor.

    For cash crops, the targeted area for groundnuts and cotton increased by 48 and 53 percent compared to last year. However, farmers' production of these crops is expected to be financed by private companies and big traders. Farmers in the semi-mechanized rain-fed and irrigated sectors are raising increasing concerns about delayed land preparation and planting due to the high cost and shortages of fuel, agricultural inputs, and labor. In the irrigated schemes, farmers are also raising concerns about delays in the maintenance of the irrigation channels, which is likely to result in irrigation water shortages.

    According to the May 2022 Sudan Agromet Information System (SAMIS) bulletin, rainfall exceeding 200mm was registered in the southeastern Blue Nile and southern South Darfur states, signaling an early start to the rainy season. Moderate rainfall (100-200) mm was also recorded across the southern parts of the southern states, while 20-100 mm were observed in the northern parts. Around 20-100mm of rain was reported across the rest of Sudan.

    Based on CHIRPS satellite data, the rainy season is well above average, with much of Sudan receiving over 145 percent of normal rainfall in June, except for South Kordofan, where rainfall is 70 to 95 percent of normal. Although rainfall is above-normal, vegetation greenness, as measured by satellite-derived eVIIRS Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), is 80-90 percent of the 2012-2020 mean across much of southern Sudan (Figure 1). However, due to the above-average rainfall, land preparation is continuing in the rain-fed sectors in eastern and western Sudan, while cereal planting is underway in the traditional rain-fed sectors in southern and south-west Sudan. Key informants also reported that rainfall in June is improving pasture regeneration in some of the grazing areas of greater Kordofan, Blue Nile, and Sennar states. The USGS Water Point Viewer indicates good water conditions across most monitoring points in Sudan. As of mid-June, nomadic pastoralists have started their normal seasonal migration from the summer season grazing areas in the south to the wet season grazing areas in the north. The Range and Pasture Departments of the Ministry of Animal Resources are working on demarcation and reopening animal migration routes to facilitate animal movements and reduce conflict between farmers and pastoralists.

    Reports from most of the irrigated schemes indicate that lower than normal planting has been recorded as of mid-June. As the rainy season begins, the dry sowing of millet is being reported in some parts of the traditional rain-fed areas in greater Darfur and Kordofan states. Planting is yet to start in most irrigated and semi-mechanized sectors and will likely begin in early to mid-July.

    As of June 21, 2021, no major pest infestations are reported. In May, the FAO Desert Locust Bulletin reported that a few small groups from the northeast could arrive in the northern Nile valley between Dongola and Shendi.

    Macroeconomic difficulties

    Sudan continues to experience poor macroeconomic conditions due to the persistent shortages of hard currency reserves, the depreciation of the SDG, and high inflation. This has continued reducing the government and private sector's ability to import essential food and non-food items, including improved seeds, primarily for sunflower and vegetable production, and fertilizers, herbicides, and pesticides for the recently started 2022/203 agricultural season.

    Following the liberalization of the Sudanese Pound (SDG) in early March 2022, the exchange rate depreciated rapidly on the parallel market but has been relatively stable since April, resulting in the parallel market and the commercial banks' exchange rates trading at similar prices. In late June, the parallel market rate is trading at around 567-569 SDG/USD compared to 600-650 SDG/USD in March, while commercial banks are also trading at almost the same rate of (567-568 SDG/USD). In June 2022, the  SDG exchange rate was 23 percent higher than June 2021 and 289 percent higher than the five-year average (Figure 2).

    According to Sudan's Central Bureau of Statistics (CBS) bulletin for May 2022, the national inflation rate in May 2022 was 192.21 percent, around a 28 percent decline compared to April (220.71 percent). The national inflation rate was also almost 49 percentage points lower than May 2021, but 51 percentage points over the five-year average. This was mainly due to the 17.29 percent increase in the inflation rate between April and  May 2021, following an almost 7 percent increase in fuel prices in May 2021. Despite the decrease in the inflation rate in May 2022, the inflation rate remains very high, resulting in the high cost of food and goods.

    Market  prices and terms-of-trade

    In June 2022, sorghum and millet retail prices continue to seasonally increase across most markets, with prices increasing on average 15-20 percent between May and June. Sorghum and millet prices remain on average almost 200 percent above prices in June 2021 and about five times the five-year average. In Al Gadarif (the main cereal production market in Sudan), sorghum is selling for approximately 266 SDG/kg in June 2022, compared to 93 SDG/kg in June 2021 and 67 SDG/kg in June 2020. In El Fasher, one of the major consumption markets in the Darfur region of western Sudan, sorghum is selling for 366 SDG/kg in June 2022 compared to 100 SDG/kg in June 2021 and  84 SDG/kg in June 2020. Across Sudan, millet prices follow a similar trend and remain four to five times higher than the five-year average for June. The extremely high sorghum and millet prices are driven by the below-average 2021/2022 harvest, resulting in below-average market supply and above-average demand given the shortage and high prices of the imported wheat and wheat flour. Additionally, the high inflation rate and fuel prices result in significant increases in production and transportation costs, which are being passed onto the consumer.

    Despite the recently concluded winter wheat harvest in March-April 2022, locally produced wheat retail prices continue to increase unseasonably between May and June 2022, remaining on average 200 percent above their respective prices in 2021 and more than five times the five-year average. The price of locally produced wheat increased 10-15 percent in most markets between May and June. Retail wheat prices in June 2022 are, on average, around 563 SDG/kg compared to 168 SDG/kg in June 2021 and 69 SDG/kg in June 2020. The high wheat prices are mainly attributed to high production and transportation costs, the shortage and high prices of imported wheat and wheat flour, high inflation, and devaluation of the SDG.

    The wholesale price of key cash crops remained relatively stable across most markets between May and  June 2022, remaining 70 to 100 percent higher than June 2021. In the El Obied market, the main groundnut market, one guntar (approximately 45 kg) of unshelled groundnut is selling at 12,750 SDG in May 2022 compared to 11,000 SDG in May 2021, recording a 16 percent increase and more than three times above the five-year average. In the Al Gadarif market, one guntar of sesame is selling at 36,500 SDG in May 2022 compared to around 21,588 SDG in May 2021, almost 69 percent greater than last year and 430 percent greater than the five-year average. The high prices of groundnut and sesame are driven by the extremely high production and transportation costs and the devaluation of the SDG.

    Goat and sheep prices increased on average 10-20 percent across most markets and remained relatively stable or slightly declined in a few markets between May and June 2022, driven by increased demand for exports, particularly to Saudi Arabia, significant increases in transportation costs, and the continued devaluation of the SDG that coincided with increased supplies by pastoralists and agropastoralists groups. In June 2022, goat and sheep prices are approximately 60-100 percent above last year's prices and four to five times the five-year average. Cattle prices remained relatively stable across most markets between May and June and are on average 50-100 percent above June 2021 prices and approximately 400 percent above the five-year average.

    Agricultural labor opportunities and wages typically increase with the start of the agricultural season in May/June. However, demand for agricultural labor remained below normal in May and June 2022 due to delayed preparation for the start of the agricultural season. Labor wages remained relatively stable between May and June 2022, ranging between 1500-3000 SDG/day, around 30 to 45 percent higher than wages last year, and 300-400 percent above June 2020 wages. But, labor opportunities have improved in the irrigated and rainfed sectors with the start of land preparation, with increased dependency on local labor due to the decline in Ethiopian migrant labor following the COVID-19 border closures and the ongoing border tension with Ethiopia.

    The goat-to-sorghum and labor-to-sorghum terms-of-trade continued to decrease in most markets over the last three months as increases in sorghum prices outpace increases in goat prices and labor wages. In the El Obied market, one head of goat traded for 121  kg of sorghum in May compared to 140 kg sorghum/goat in April 2022 and 156 kg sorghum/goat in May 2021 (Figure 4).

    The decline in the terms-of-trade is being driven by a 22 percent increase in sorghum prices compared to a 6 percent increase in goat prices. This is approximately 23 percent lower than the terms of trade in May 2021 and 33 percent lower than the five-year average. Similarly, the labor-to-sorghum terms-of-trade in May is approximately 15-25 percent lower than in April due to an 18 percent increase in sorghum prices, while labor wages are 1,000 SDG/day (~2.19 USD/day). In El Obied, daily wages can buy around 3.3 kg of sorghum, equivalent to less than one day of kilocalorie requirements for a family of six if only sorghum were eaten during this time (Figure 5). However, in El Fasher, daily wages can purchase around 8.58 kg of sorghum, equivalent to just under 2.5 days of kilocalorie requirements for a family of six if only sorghum were eaten during this time. Wages in El Fasher are typically higher due to the large presence of international organizations (UN agencies, INGOs) and traditional gold mining in North Darfur.

    Informal cross-border flows of sorghum to South Sudan, Ethiopia, and Eritrea were above average during the first quarter of 2022, attracted by relatively higher prices in the destination markets and a relatively low competitive price in Sudan compared to neighboring countries resulting in the devaluation of the SDG. From January to March 2022, informal cross-border sorghum exports to South Sudan were 1,843 Mt, around 1,340 percent above the last quarter of 2021 (October to December 2021). This has further contributed to the increased demand and high cereal prices across Sudan.  

    Inter-communal conflicts and new displacement

    Violent intercommunal clashes have continued to escalate across different parts of Sudan. Between May and June 2022, intercommunal clashes erupted across the Darfur region, South Kordofan, Kassala state, Sennar state, West Kordofan state, and the Abyei PCA area. The most recent violent clashes occurred in the Kulbus area in West Darfur state, where an estimated 50,000 people were displaced within the Kulbus locality and in neighboring localities in West Darfur, along with 117,000 people injured and 125 people killed. Between the end of April and mid-June 2022, intercommunal clashes across Sudan have resulted in the death of around 390 individuals and displaced over 219,000 people. Most of the recent conflicts were driven by disputes over land, competition for scarce natural resources, political instability, civil unrest, and the increased presence of multiple armed groups from the Juba Peace Agreement (JPA) in Darfur, Kordofan, and Blue Nile states. Across Sudan, the rise in clashes has resulted in increased fatalities, the burning of villages, and the loss of livelihood assets such as farm equipment, seeds, food stocks, and livestock.

    Humanitarian assistance

    In May 2022, WFP provided approximately 1.6 million beneficiaries with 8,700 MT of in-kind assistance and 5.1 million USD in cash. In May, WFP also resumed distributions across West Darfur, reaching around 227,900 beneficiaries, including around 129,000 IDPs and nomads in Kereniek were assisted. However, WFP faces a major funding shortfall of around 369 million for June to November 2022 to reach the planned 9.3 million people this year. WFP is working on a prioritization plan to ensure its assistance reaches the very poor and most food-insecure communities. Without new funding, WFP states they will drastically reduce the number of planned beneficiaries under school feeding and nutrition programs. Similarly, funding for the 2022 Humanitarian Response Plan (HRP) for Sudan is low. The Financial Tracking System (FTS) for Sudan shows that as of June 30, the 2022 HRP has received around 20 percent of the 1.94 billion USD requirement.

    Current food security outcomes

    Acute food insecurity is likely to increase across Sudan following an early start to the lean season in April/May, driven by the below-average 2021-2022 harvest and the continued macroeconomic deterioration, which is limiting household purchasing power, resulting in significantly above-average staple food prices and a high inflation rate. Poor households across the agropastoral areas of Sudan are facing an earlier than typical depletion of their food stocks following the below-average 2021/2022 harvest along with a high dependency on their food stocks for food access during the lean season. Additionally, the high market prices are limiting the purchase of food and non-food needs for agropastoral groups. Due to the increased shortages and high prices of imported wheat and wheat flour, there is high demand for locally produced sorghum and millet, increasing market prices, and negatively impacting household purchasing power. Poor households in pastoral and urban areas that rely primarily on market food purchases are facing increasing difficulty accessing sufficient income to purchase food. Overall, an increasing number of people are facing Crisis (IPC Phase 3) or worse acute food insecurity in June 2022. Among the populations, most in need are newly displaced and people affected by recent inter-communal clashes, long-term IDPs and conflict-affected people in the Darfur states, South Kordofan, Blue Nile, and Abyei, and urban poor and chronically food-insecure households in the Red Sea, Kassala, and North Darfur state who typically face food consumption deficits during the lean season and rely heavily on market purchases for food. Of greatest concern are areas affected by inter-communal clashes in Darfur, Kordofan, and Kassala states, and SPLM-N areas of South Kordofan and Jebel Marra, where continued displacement, limited market and labor access, high staple food prices, and insufficient humanitarian access are leading to increased food insecurity among an already food insecure population. 


    Assumptions

    The most likely scenario for June 2022 to January 2023 is based on the following national-level assumptions:

    • Based on the NMME, WMO, and C3S forecasts, the June to September main rainfall season in Sudan and South Sudan is expected to be above average. Based on current atypical river water levels, current atypical flood extent, and past occurrences, there is an increased likelihood of a one-in-20 year flood occurring near major river basins in northern and eastern South Sudan and Sudan. There is a high likelihood of above-average streamflow in the upper reaches of the White Nile, especially in July and August.
    • The below-average 2021/2022 staple food and cash crop harvest is expected to reduce the availability of cereals for households and markets due to the below-average market supply. Limited access to hard currency reserves will likely limit the government's ability to fill the national grain reserve at the Strategic Reserve Corporation (SRC) through importation. However, market cereal supply is expected to improve in December 2022 with the start of the 2022/2023 harvest, provided that the harvest is not impacted by excessive flooding or long dry spells and insecurity.
    • Sudan typically imports around 85 percent of the wheat needed to meet domestic demand. In 2020, IFPRI estimated that around 55 percent of Sudan's wheat imports came from Russia and 20 percent from Ukraine. Sudan is likely to continue attempting to import wheat from international markets; however, high global wheat prices and limited access to hard currency will likely limit Sudan's ability to import enough wheat to meet national demand.
    •  Sudan's macroeconomics is likely to continue to deteriorate through the scenario period due to the international community's suspension of major economic support situations following the overthrow of the civilian-led transitional government in October 2021.  
    • In April and May 2022, the parallel market was trading at around 571, with commercial banks trading at around 570 SDG/USD, indicating some stability in the FOREX. The parallel market exchange rate will likely remain high throughout the scenario period due to the persistent lack of a sustainable hard currency stream. This will likely result in reduced imports and further price increases. Based on FEWS NET's integrated FOREX projections, the SDG is expected to be 550-600 SDG/USD through January 2023. 
    • Sorghum and millet prices are anticipated to peak during the June to September lean season, then decrease seasonably during the October 2022 to January 2023 harvest season. Based on FEWS NET's integrated price projections, sorghum and millet prices are expected to be over 150-200 percent higher than their respective prices last year and four to five times above the five-year average through January 2023 across most markets in Sudan. Due to the expected high demand, local wheat prices will continue rapidly increasing during the June to September 2022 lean season.
    • Sorghum exports from Sudan to the northern markets of South Sudan are likely to continue through the lean season because of higher market prices in South Sudan. However, trade flows may be affected by high transportation costs and likely increasing prices in Sudan due to below average market supply. Sorghum prices are likely to remain more than double compared to respective prices in 2021 and over 400 percent above the five-year average through January 2023.
    • Livestock prices are expected to follow seasonal trends but at relatively high prices compared to average due to high inflation and local currency depreciation. Livestock prices are expected to remain stable but start seasonally declining during the June to September lean season as households sell additional livestock for income to purchase food and build household food stocks. From October 2022 to January 2023, livestock prices are expected to remain seasonally stable or slightly decrease in most markets due to increased market supply and improved animal body conditions with the start of the harvest. Overall, livestock prices are expected to remain almost double compared to last year and over 400 percent above the five-year average through 2022.
    • The livestock-to-cereal terms-of-trade (TOT), a proxy for pastoral household purchasing power, is expected to decline between June and September, driven by the anticipated high increases in sorghum prices, while livestock prices are expected to begin seasonally decreasing or remain relatively stable. The TOT is likely to remain 30-40 percent lower than the respective TOT in  2021 and 20-30 percent below the five-year average.
    • The forecasted above-average rainfall is likely to support favorable crop yields in rainfed agricultural areas of Sudan. However, the overall area planted in the semi-mechanized and irrigated agricultural areas is likely to be negatively impacted by the shortage and high prices of fuel, high cost of inputs, finance shortages, and high cost of labor. The combination of planting constraints and the anticipated above-average flooding will likely result in below-average national production.
    • The forecasted above-average rains are likely to result in above-average flooding in Sudan's flood-prone areas and above-average pest infestations and crop diseases. According to FAO, low numbers of solitarious adults are likely to appear between North Darfur and Kassala states and breed on a small scale in areas that receive summer rains.
    • Agricultural labor opportunities and wages are expected to increase seasonally during the June and September agricultural season, ranging from 3000 to 4000 SDG/day. Labor opportunities and wages will further increase with the start of the harvest period in October 2021 and remain around 4000-5000 SDG/day through January 2023. Labor wages are anticipated to be 80-100 percent above last year and 200-300 percent above the five-year average.
    • Household purchasing power is likely to slightly improve with the start of the rainy season due to increased demand for agricultural labor. However, the increases in sorghum prices relative to goat prices and labor wages, the rising cost of food and non-food needs, and limited access to income due to reduced economic activity and increased competition for income-earning opportunities are expected to constrain access to income and limit purchasing power for pastoral and daily wage-dependent households. Purchasing power from remittances will likely increase slightly compared to normal. 
    • WFP and implementing partners will likely provide approximately 78,900 MT of emergency food assistance and 10 million USD in cash vouchers to over 2.6 million beneficiaries. Most of the targeted beneficiaries are IDPs and conflict-affected people in Greater Darfur, government-controlled areas of South Kordofan and the Blue Nile, refugees from South Sudan and chronically food-insecure areas of eastern and western Sudan, Ethiopian refugees from the Tigray region, and South Sudanese refugees fleeing conflict.
    • The frequency and magnitude of civil unrest are likely to increase again following a lull during the month of Ramadan in Khartoum and other major urban centers through September 2022 and beyond. The pro-democracy protest groups, which have been holding weekly demonstrations since the October 2021 military government takeover, have been bolstered by more general anti-government protests motivated by worsening economic conditions, commodity scarcity, and high inflation.
    • Intercommunal violence in Darfur, Kordofan, and Kassala states will continue to increase following the post-rainy season surge in violence due to the continued dispute over lands and natural resources and retaliatory cycles of violence. Violence is expected to decline relatively during the June-October rainy season but escalate again during the harvest season between November 2022 and January 2023. Violence in the lead-up to and during the harvest season is likely to be at higher levels compared to 2021 due to increasing disputes over access to farming lands and competition for scarce natural resources between pastoralists and farmers, as well as an additional 12 months of economic stagnation. Government efforts to reduce violence are likely to be stymied due to the presence of multiple armed groups in Darfur's main urban centers, including several signatories of the Juba Peace Agreement (JPA). The lack of progress in the implementation of the agreement will likely spur further incidents of sporadic violence.

    Most Likely Food Security Outcomes

    From June to September, the typical peak lean season in Sudan, households are expected to increasingly rely on markets to purchase staple foods with reduced market supplies and at significantly above-average prices. Food stocks from own production are likely to be exhausted earlier than normal due to a below-average harvest and increased dependency on own production driven by the high market prices. As the rainy season progresses between June and September, improvements in livestock productivity, agricultural labor opportunities, wage labor rates, and livestock prices will relatively improve household food access. However, household purchasing power is expected to continue to be limited by high food and non-food prices, the poor macroeconomic conditions, and high inflation. The seasonal increase in staple food prices through the peak of the lean season in September is likely to reduce household purchasing power further. As a result, IDPs and conflict-affected households who chronically face food consumption deficits during the lean season are likely to continue facing Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes between June and September 2022, particularly in the pastoral and agropastoral zones across Sudan. In the absence of humanitarian assistance, Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes are likely to emerge among newly displaced people in Darfur affected by inter-communal clashes, IDPs, and conflict-affected households in isolated areas of Jebel Marra in Central Darfur and poor households in the Red Sea, Kassala, and North Darfur state, particularly during the peak of the lean season in August and September due to a lack of access to income for food purchases.

    Between October 2022 and January 2023, the pre-harvest and harvest period, food security outcomes are likely to improve relative to the lean season as agricultural and agropastoral households begin to access the harvest and receive in-kind payments from agricultural labor and better livestock body conditions and production. Increased wages from agricultural labor, the sale of livestock and livestock products, and increased consumption of milk and wild food will also improve household food access. Nevertheless, the anticipated very high staple food prices and persistent macroeconomic difficulties are likely to continue reducing households' ability to meet their basic food and non-food needs. Driven by the increase in food access from the harvest and increased income from agricultural labor, Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes are likely across most agricultural and agropastoral areas. However, most conflict-affected areas in greater Darfur and greater Kordofan, including parts of Jebel Marra and South Kordofan, southern Blue Nile, some pastoral and agropastoral areas of northern Kassala, and northern Red Sea states, are expected to remain in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) due to the anticipated below-average harvest from the upcoming season, continued insecurity, loss of assets from the likely above-average flooding, the anticipated above-average food prices, and the continued poor purchasing power and the reduced access to the livelihood options and humanitarian assistance resulting from the persistent insecurity and poor road access.   

    AreaEventImpact on food security outcomes 
    NationalBelow-average rainy season and second consecutive poor harvest.A below-average 2022/23 agricultural season will result in two consecutive years of poor harvests and will drive higher than anticipated food shortages, and a likely sharper increase in cereal prices. Poor households' food consumption will likely decline further, with households increasingly engaging in the liquidation of livelihood assets to purchase food. A below-average harvest will likely result in an increasing number of households facing Crisis (IPC Phase 3) or worse outcomes.
    NationalThe government and opponent groups successfully reach an agreement to return to a civilian led government.This will likely reduce political tensions and direct clashes, and allow the Sudanese economy to reintegrate with the global market, likely improving the macroeconomic conditions in Sudan. Better access to international support and hard currency will likely reduce food and fuel prices and improve household purchasing power, reducing the number of households facing Crisis (IPC Phase 3) or worse outcomes.

    For more information on the outlook for specific areas of concern, please click the download button at the top of the page for the full report. 

    Figures

    Figure 1

    Source: FEWS NET

    Figure 2

    Figure 1.

    Source: FEWS NET/USGS

    Figure 3

    Figure 2.

    Source: FEWS NET

    Figure 4

    Figure 3.

    Source: FEWS NET using data from FAMIS

    Figure 5

    Figure 4.

    Source: FEWS NET/FAMIS

    Figure 6

    Figure 5.

    Source: FEWS NET/FAMIS

    To project food security outcomes, FEWS NET develops a set of assumptions about likely events, their effects, and the probable responses of various actors. FEWS NET analyzes these assumptions in the context of current conditions and local livelihoods to arrive at a most likely scenario for the coming eight months. Learn more here.

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