Conflict and high food prices drive high food assistance needs in 2023

• Persistently severe macroeconomic conditions, as well as localized intercommunal conflict, are expected to continue to drive Stressed (IPC Phase 2) and Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes in Sudan, despite above-average cereal production this year. Low foreign currency reserves, depreciation of the local currency, and high imported and local food and non-food commodity prices are all contributing to excessively high inflation, while income-earning opportunities remain low, resulting in low household purchasing power. Levels of acute food insecurity are expected to deteriorate further after the lean season begins in late April, and food assistance needs are expected to peak in August and September, when household stocks are exhausted, dependence on markets for food increases, and prices rise seasonally.

• The areas of highest concern include areas hosting large numbers of internally displaced people (IDP); areas with large conflict-affected populations in parts of Darfur, Kordofan, and Blue Nile states; and areas of marginal agricultural production in the Red Sea, North Darfur, North Kordofan, and northern Kassala states. Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes are expected in Abyei Administrative Area, where renewed conflict has resulted in recent displacement, a considerable loss of household food and income sources, and challenges to humanitarian access.

• Cereal production this year is estimated to be 45 percent higher than last year and about 13 percent above the five-year average, according to the FAO Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission. The increase is due to favorable weather conditions that contributed to improved yields, as well as a significant shift in production from cash crops – which incur higher production costs – to less resource-intensive cereal crops. Cash crop production, on the other hand, is estimated to be lower than last year and the five-year average due to the significant decrease in area planted. Cash crop production has been negatively affected by marketing and export difficulties since last year; atypically low prices that offer insufficient profits to invest in the high cost of production; the shortage and high cost of agricultural inputs; and limited access to agricultural financing this year. Overall, the significantly higher-than-normal costs of production have undercut household income from crop sales and eroded the benefits of the above-average harvest for many households.

• During the ongoing post-harvest season, staple food prices showed mixed trends across most markets in Sudan. In February, some consumer markets showed earlier-than-usual price increases, while other consumer markets registered general stability in prices; meanwhile, some production markets have shown a decline in prices since September 2022. Rising food prices during the post-harvest period are related to the persistent weak value of the Sudanese Pound (SDG) and the high costs of production and transportation, leading many larger farmers to withhold some of their stocks until later in the season when prices will be even higher. Overall, staple food prices remain, on average, around 95 percent higher than last year’s prices and over four times higher than the five-year average. At the same time, household income is stagnating, contributing to low purchasing power.

Current Situation

2022/23 season agricultural production: The findings of the joint Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission (CFSAM) conducted at the end of December 2022 estimated that national cereal production for the 2022/23 cropping season will be significantly higher than last year and slightly higher than the five-year average. Total cereal production is estimated at around 7.4 million metric tons (MT), inclusive of 5.2 million MT of sorghum, 1.7 million MT of millet, and a forecast of about 476,000 MT of wheat to be harvested in March 2023. This is approximately 45 percent higher than the significantly below-average production from the 2021/22 season (5.0 million MT) and about 13 percent above the recent five-year average (6.5 million MT). Together, local production this year will cover about 68 percent of the total national demand for main staples¹, with a deficit mostly in wheat of approximately 3.6 million MT (Figure 1). 

Both the sorghum and millet harvests this year were higher than last year and the five-year average: sorghum was estimated to be nearly 50 percent higher than 2021/22 and over 20 percent higher than the five-year average, while millet was 86 percent higher than 2021/22 and over 12 percent higher than the five-year average. In a context of limited access to agricultural finance, and the shortages and high costs of agricultural inputs and labor – due in large part to the depreciation of the currency – more farmers shifted to production of these crops over cash crops and wheat. With more land under production and improved yields resulting from more favorable weather conditions this year compared to last, local sorghum and millet harvests are in surplus of national requirements by approximately 535,000 and 903,000 MT each (11 and 90 percent above, respectively). 

The improvement in overall cereal production was mainly due to increases seen in the rain-fed traditional and semi-mechanized sectors (Figure 2). For sorghum, production in the traditional sector increased by approximately 90 and 30 percent over that of 2021/22 and the five-year average, respectively, with highest production recorded in greater Darfur, greater Kordofan, and Kassala states. In the semi-mechanized sector, sorghum production was around 30 and 20 percent higher than that of 2021/22 and the five-year average, with the highest increases in production reported in Sennar, Blue Nile, White Nile, and Kassala. By contrast, the irrigated sector recorded a decrease of around 20 and 30 percent compared to 2021/22 season and the five-year average, respectively. 

Locally produced wheat is forecasted to be about 25 percent lower than last year and about 35 percent lower than the five-year average. Wheat production was negatively affected by limited access to agricultural finance, poor maintenance of irrigation canals and drainage systems, and the shortage and high cost of agricultural inputs such as seeds and fertilizers, all of which contributed to a decline of approximately 40 percent in area cultivated this year compared to the five-year average. As a result, available wheat from local production is expected to cover only 12 percent of the total wheat requirements, with 88 percent (approximately 3.5 million MT) remaining to be imported.

Overall, cash crop production is expected to be lower than last year and the five-year average (Figure 3) for many of the same reasons as wheat, including limited access to agricultural finance and high costs of production and transport that contributed to significant decreases in area planted during the main 2022/23 season. However, marketing challenges affecting crop production differ by crop, with cash crops facing more export-related difficulties, low prices throughout 2022, and rising marketing fees. As a result, national sesame production is estimated to be around 40 percent lower than 2021/22 and 25 percent lower than the five-year average, while sunflower and cotton production are expected to be about 45 and 25 percent lower than 2021/22 and about 30 and 60 percent lower than the five-year average, respectively. Groundnut production on the other hand, mostly cultivated under traditional rainfed systems in Darfur and Kordofan, increased by about 10 percent compared to both the 2021/22 and the five-year average, as favorable weather conditions this year improved yields.

Desert Locusts: According to the February 2023 Desert Locust Bulletin, the situation in January was generally calm, with scattered, late-instar solitarious hoppers present on the Red Sea coast between Suakin and Port Sudan, near Tokar and Karora in the south, and north of Tomala in the northeast subcoastal areas. Hopper groups started to form after mid-month near Tomala and Suakin. Some immature and mature solitarious adults were present in the same areas. Ground teams treated 204 hectares, and locust numbers are expected to decline in March along the Red Sea coastal plain and subcoastal areas as conditions become drier.

Macroeconomic difficulties: The poor economic situation has continued through February 2023 due to persistent low foreign currency reserves, local currency depreciation, high inflation rates, longstanding insecurity, and political instability. The SDG exchange rate increased slightly from 582 SDG/USD in January to 585 SDG/USD in February on the official market and from 585 SDG/USD to 590 SDG/USD on the parallel market. After two years of a steeply rising Consumer Price Index (CPI), the last few months from October 2022 to January 2023 have seen some stability but inflation remains 84 percent higher than last year and more than five times above the five-year average (Figure 4). The ongoing depreciation of the currency is causing the prices of imported goods, including agricultural inputs, to remain at very high levels and is generally contributing to the maintenance of a very high cost of living.

Markets and trade: Following a robust decline in staple food prices from the end of the lean season in September 2022 through to the end of the harvest season in January 2023, price trends started to diverge in February 2023 with some markets recording earlier-than-usual increases. Given very high costs of production this year, larger-scale farmers who have the means to do so are withholding most of their stocks in anticipation of selling their stocks at higher prices during the lean season, which will help cover their production costs. Only small producers are currently selling to traders, as they are unable to withhold crops until prices are seasonally high. As a result, availability is low and demand from traders seeking to restock is rising, thus pushing prices to atypically increase.

As of mid-February, sorghum was selling for, on average, 331 SDG/kg, a five percent increase nationally compared to January 2023 and around 95 percent higher than last year’s prices and over four times higher than the five-year average (Figure 5). However, there are variations in monthly price trends between markets, with a continued seasonal decrease of nine percent observed from January to February in the main sorghum production center of Al Gadaref, compared to month-on-month increases of 10, 11, and 21 percent in Madani, Kassala, and Sinnar markets, respectively. 

For millet, the average retail price traded at 505 SDG/kg in mid-February, reflecting an increase of five percent compared to January, a 66 percent increase compared to February 2022, and a more than three-fold increase compared to the five-year average (Figure 5). In Kadugli, Madanai, and El Afshar markets, prices declined between 8 and 17 percent, while the markets in El Obeid, Gadarif, Sinnar, and Geneina markets saw increases of between 6 and 11 percent when compared to January 2023. 

Locally produced wheat prices also indicated mixed trends across markets in February. Many markets saw unseasonable declines due to the influx of cheap imported wheat and the availability of excess stock (both on farms and in markets) carried over from last year’s production, resulting from the refusal of the government to purchase from farmers last year. Nationally, average wheat prices remained at around 482 SDG/kg, which is similar to the previous month and only five percent higher than February 2022, but 212 percent above the five-year average (Figure 5). Markets that experienced declining prices of between 7 and 26 percent include El Fasher and Madani, while El Obeid, Kassala, and Sinnar markets experienced increases of roughly 10 to 20 percent. Locally produced wheat prices will likely continue to be influenced by high uncertainty around the expected output of the March-April 2023 winter wheat harvest and the government’s ability to import wheat through 2023.

Livestock prices: On average, livestock prices remain atypically stable in February. Typically, widespread favorability of pasture conditions, adequate availability of crop residues, animal feed, and water, and generally healthy animal body conditions as experienced currently would induce livestock prices to rise. The atypical price trend for livestock is due to a combination of factors, including depressed demand due to the continued deterioration in household purchasing power amidst poor macroeconomic conditions; increased market supply from pastoral and agropastoral groups as they seek income for food purchases; and continued constraints on exporting livestock, which is associated with high marketing costs, political instability, and frequent disruptions to the live animal export supply chain. 

In mid-February, goat prices unseasonably decreased by 5 to 7 percent month-on-month in Khartoum, Sinnar, El Fasher, and Kassala markets while remaining stable in most other markets. El Obied was the only market reporting an increase, amounting to 8 percent from the previous month. Sheep prices increased by 5 to 11 percent from January to February across Dongola and El Obied markets. On the other hand, Kadugli and Ed Daein markets reported decreases of 7 and 5 percent, respectively, while the sheep prices remained stable in Damazin, El Damer, Madani, Nyala, and Fasher markets during the reporting period. Overall, goat and sheep prices in February remained 42 to 64 percent above last year’s prices and 280 to 380 percent above the five-year average, driven by the continued high inflation and the local currency depreciation.

Terms of trade (TOT): The goat-to-sorghum and labor-to-sorghum terms of trade, which serve as proxies for household purchasing power, remained stable or slightly improved from January to February across most markets in Sudan. The trend is due to the relative stability of sorghum prices, while goat and labor prices either remained stable or slightly increased. In El Fasher market, for example, the goat-to-sorghum TOT increased five percent month-on-month, with the sale of a goat purchasing around 64 kg of sorghum in February (Figure 6).

However, compared to last year (February 2022), the goat-to-sorghum TOT has declined 31 percent. In Al Gadaref market, the labor-to-sorghum TOT increased from 8.9 kg to 9.7 kg of sorghum per daily wage between January and February. Compared to last year (February 2022), the labor-to-sorghum TOT has declined 51 percent, remaining 31 percent lower than the five-year average (Figure 7). Despite the relative improvement in goat-to-sorghum and labor-to-sorghum TOTs in February, the decline relative to last year highlights the decline in household purchasing power.

Conflict and peace process: From October 2022 to February 2023, sporadic violent inter-communal clashes continued to contribute to acute food insecurity in some areas of Sudan, particularly across greater Darfur, West and South Kordofan, Blue Nile, and in Abyei Administrative Area (Figure 8). The most recent violent incidents occurred in Wad Al Mahi (Blue Nile) in mid-January, Beliel (South Darfur) in December, and in Lagawa (West Kordofan) in October, mostly due to disputes over land and natural resources between different tribes. Tension in these areas currently remains high, and conflict is expected to continue to displace households and disrupt people’s livelihoods, thereby impacting households’ ability to harvest crops, retain household stocks, or access markets and resulting in an increased need for humanitarian assistance to fill widening food consumption gaps. The International Organization for Migration (IOM) estimated that about 418,500 individuals were newly displaced as result of conflict and natural disasters since January 2022. Meanwhile, in eastern Sudan, the government's suspension of the eastern Sudan track of the Juba Peace Agreement (JPA) protocol – pending a consensus between the eastern Sudanese High Native Administration Council and the Higher Beja Council (HBC) – has resulted in high tensions and an increased number of security events since September 2021, including violence against civilians and protests.

Humanitarian assistance: In January 2023, WFP and implementing partners provided assistance to approximately 562,000 beneficiaries, with a 50 percent ration for IDPs and a full ration for refugees using both in-kind food assistance (~3,741 metric tons) and cash-transfer assistance (817,000 USD) modalities. Most beneficiaries were IDPs and conflict-affected people in Greater Darfur, Greater Kordofan, the Blue Nile states; refugees from South Sudan, Eritrea, and Ethiopia; and populations affected by erratic rainfall and poor agricultural production. WFP plans to gradually scale-up assistance during the lean season, distributing over 152,707 metric tons and over 96.7 million USD in cash transfers to 5.8 million beneficiaries cumulatively between January and June 2023.

Nutrition status: In 2022, SMART surveys were conducted by nutrition sector partners including Action Against Hunger, Plan International, Islamic Relief Worldwide, and International Medical Corps in eight prioritized localities with suspected high acute malnutrition rates: West and Central Jabal Marra, Wadi-Saleh, and Zalingei, Central Darfur; Aroma and Kassala Town, Kassala; and Ghadeer and Tadamon, South Kordofan. Results of these surveys found high acute malnutrition rates, mostly ranging between Serious (Global Acute Malnutrition (GAM) rate of 10-14.9 percent) to Critical (GAM rate of 15-29.9 percent), although mortality rates remained below the WHO emergency threshold of 1/10,000/day in all surveyed areas (Table 1). Critical levels of acute malnutrition are prevalent in Aroma locality and Kassala town in Kassala state and in Tadamon and Ghadeer localities in South Kordofan state. At the same time, Serious levels of acute malnutrition are common in West Jabal Mara and Zalingei localities in Central Darfur. The surveys also found generally elevated incidences of childhood illnesses in the preceding two weeks, poor child-feeding practices, poor health-seeking behaviors, and low immunization coverage, all factors associated with poor malnutrition outcomes. Given that most of these surveys were conducted in the lean season, rates may have improved slightly in this post-harvest period.

Assumptions

The most likely scenario for February to September 2023 is based on the following national-level assumptions:

• The above-average 2023 national harvest will likely improve food availability and access for most households through April, the post-harvest period. Household access to cash and in-kind payments from agricultural labor and crop sales, as well as in-kind zakat from the crops of better-off households, will also improve food access. However, from May to September, the typical lean season, household food stocks will decline. 
• The 2023 wheat harvest is expected to be significantly below average due to the large reductions in the area planted this season. Wheat cultivation has been impacted by the overall high production costs, shortages and high costs of agricultural inputs, and limited access to agricultural finance. Additionally, the government has not committed to purchasing wheat from the farmers as usual, which disincentivized planting.
• Sudan’s poor macroeconomic situation is likely to continue through the scenario period due to the international community’s suspension of major economic support following the overthrow of the civilian-led transitional government in October 2021, persistent low foreign currency reserves, the weak exchange rate, high inflation rates, longstanding insecurity, and political instability. 
• The SDG exchange rates will likely remain high throughout the scenario period due to the government’s persistent lack of a sustainable hard currency stream and the high import need. This will likely result in reduced imports, particularly food, and result in further price increases. Based on FEWS NET’s integrated FOREX projections, the SDG is expected to be 580-620 SDG/USD through September 2023. 
• Sorghum and millet prices are anticipated to decrease seasonably between February and March 2023 due to the improved market supplies from the recently concluded harvest and the seasonably reduced market demand. Prices are then expected to rise again seasonally as stocks begin to decline in advance of the lean season and will continue to rise through the lean season. Based on FEWS NET’s integrated price projections, sorghum and millet prices are expected to be over 150-200 percent higher than their respective prices last year and four to five times above the five-year average across most markets in Sudan during the projection period.
• Locally produced wheat prices are likely to decrease seasonally between March and May 2023, with the beginning of the winter wheat harvest in March and likely continued availability of imported wheat. Prices will likely remain slightly higher than prices in 2022 and over 200 percent above the five-year average due to the anticipated below-average harvest and the above-average cost of production. 
• Despite the end of La Niña climate conditions in March, the NMME and WMO forecasts suggest that the June to September rainy season in Sudan will most likely be above average. However, there is uncertainty given the long-range nature of the forecast, particularly given the rising likelihood that El Niño will emerge in mid-to-late 2023. Typically, La Niña is associated with above-average rainfall and El Niño is associated with below-average rainfall in Sudan.
• Average to above-average pasture conditions are being reported in most of the summer season grazing areas, as well as in agropastoral areas in western and eastern Sudan, due to good rains this year. Beginning in the summer months (April-June), rangelands will face increased hazards of wildfire and overgrazing in some areas in western and eastern Sudan due to the poor distribution of water sources. Livestock body conditions in some areas are likely to be negatively impacted by the expected shortage of pasture and water during that period. The expected degradation in the rangeland resources will likely increase competition for grazing resources between pastoralist groups and increase conflict between pastoralists and farmers during the upcoming cultivation season. However, livestock body conditions will improve during the June-September rainy season as pasture and water resources recover. 
• Livestock prices are expected to follow seasonal trends but at relatively high prices compared to average due to high inflation and local currency depreciation. Livestock prices are expected to remain relatively stable between February and April 2023 in most markets, likely decreasing seasonally between May and September 2023, the lean season, as households from pastoral and agropastoral groups sell more livestock for income to purchase food at anticipated high prices. Overall, livestock prices are expected to remain almost 50-75 percent higher than last year and over 300 percent above the five-year average through May 2023.
• While the livestock-to-cereal TOT is likely to remain 40-50 percent lower than the respective TOT in 2021/22 and 30-40 percent below the five-year average due to above-average sorghum prices, the near-term changes are expected to continue favoring livestock owners through April 2023 due to the seasonally declining or stable cereal prices. The TOT will likely decline from May through September 2023, driven by the anticipated rise in sorghum prices and anticipated decline in livestock prices as households increasingly sell livestock for income for food purchases during the lean season. 
• Agricultural labor opportunities and wages are expected to decrease seasonally following the end of the 2022/2023 harvest, with labor wages dropping by 25-30 percent and remaining at 2,000-2,500 SDG per day between February and May 2023. Wages are expected to increase seasonally by June with the start of the next cultivation season and remain around 3,000-3,500 SDG/day through September 2023. 
• WFP and implementing partners are expected to provide approximately 152,707 metric tons of in-kind food assistance and over 96.7 million USD in cash transfers to 5.8 million beneficiaries, cumulatively, between January and June 2023. While concrete distribution plans are not yet available for the June to September 2023 period, FEWS NET's analysis of past and current food assistance distributions suggests humanitarians will likely reach at least 25 percent of the population with at least 25 percent of their monthly kilocalorie needs in high-priority areas throughout the scenario period. Most targeted beneficiaries are IDPs and conflict-affected people in Greater Darfur, government-controlled South Kordofan and the Blue Nile, refugees from South Sudan and chronically food-insecure areas of eastern and western Sudan, Ethiopian refugees from the Tigray region, and South Sudanese refugees fleeing conflict. 
• Intercommunal violence in Abyei, greater Darfur, greater Kordofan, and Blue Nile states will likely continue to increase during the outlook period because of the continued dispute over land and natural resources, further exacerbated by the retaliatory and cyclical nature of attacks. Violence will likely escalate during the cultivation season between June and October 2023, as is historically typical, due to increasing disputes over access to farming lands and competition for scarce natural resources between pastoralists and farmers.
• The refusal by the High Council of Beja Nazirs and Independent Chieftains to join the recently signed transitional framework agreement, and their demands for a separate agreement on governance and development in eastern Sudan, presents an increased risk of disagreements between stakeholders in eastern Sudan and the central government, while also driving a risk of intercommunal violence between tribal groups in eastern Sudan.

Most Likely Food Security Outcomes

The February to May 2023 period overlaps with the post-harvest period, which preludes the beginning of the lean season in Sudan. During the post-harvest period from February to March and into early April, acute food insecurity outcomes among most poor households will likely remain relatively stable with respect to current food security outcomes, supported by the recently concluded average national harvest and relative stability of cereal prices. However, as the lean season begins in late-April and early May, poor households’ access to in-kind payments and cash income from agricultural labor, livestock sales, and crop sales will typically begin to decline; at the same time, staple food prices will rise as food stocks decline and households increase their dependency on market purchases for food. Poor households will likely increasingly send members of their household to migrate in search of labor opportunities, while also increasing their reliance on remittances and on income from petty trade. However, these sources of income are expected to be insufficient to cover the high cost of food and non-food items, and they will most likely increase their engagement in coping strategies to mitigate shortfalls in income and food. As a result, many poor households across Sudan will increasingly become Stressed (IPC Phase 2), while a rising number of people will likely face Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes by April and May, especially in insecure areas of South Darfur, West Kordofan, and Blue Nile. In these areas, a high number of IDPs, conflict-affected people, and poor households face restricted household movement that affects access to their main sources of food and income and limits their coping strategies. Crisis (IPC Phase 3) will also spread in northern parts of North Darfur, northern Kassala, and much of Red Sea states, where poor households’ access to food has been negatively impacted by low production, above-average stable food prices, and limited purchasing ability.

From June to September, food assistance needs are expected to reach an annual high, driven by a peak in cereal prices amid declining market supplies and high transportation costs. Household and market food stocks are expected to diminish and reach seasonal lows between August and September, the peak of the lean season. Poor households from pastoral and agropastoral communities are also anticipated to have low total income, with a heavy reliance on income from agricultural labor, collection and sale of forest products (firewood and charcoal), and limited livestock sales. These drivers will continue to place downward pressure on household purchasing power, thereby reducing financial access to food and resulting in food consumption gaps. In conflict-affected areas, the expected higher levels of insecurity will likely place physical limitations on many households’ ability to access in-kind payments from agricultural labor and plant crops during the cultivation season. Overall, an increasing number of people are expected to face Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes across Sudan, leading to the more widespread mapping of Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes in areas such as Blue Nile, Red Sea, and Kassala states.

Throughout the scenario period, Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes are likely among conflict-affected people in Abyei due to the ongoing, concurrent shocks of conflict and flooding, in addition to the reduction in trade flows from both Sudan and South Sudan, which have negatively impacted the availability and access to food as well as household access to income. Moreover, planned food assistance to the area is expected to be periodically disrupted by conflict and insecurity.

Events that Might Change the Outlook

Hamashkoraib, Northern Delta, and Talkok localities of Kassala state: Eastern Pastoral Livelihood Zone (SD-03) (Figure 9)

Most of the Hamashkoraib, Northern Delta, and Talkok localities in Kassala state are under the Eastern Pastoral Livelihood Zone of Eastern Sudan (Zone SD 3). The livelihood zone typically receives less than 150 mm of annual rainfall between August and October. The associated arid ecology is insufficient to support rain-fed agriculture or transhumant cattle. Rather, the rugged environment is suitable for grazing, with households typically owning goats, sheep, and a few camels. Poor households typically have one to three Tropical Livestock Units (TLUs)². The primary source of food for poor households is market purchases, with poor households buying more than 70 percent of their household food requirements. A small portion of their food supply comes from own livestock products, as well as from gifts from better-off households. Poor households in the area are thus particularly vulnerable to price shocks and climate shocks that result in insufficient pasture and water for their animals.

Current Situation

2022/2023 agricultural production season: According to the Kassala state Food Security Technical Secretariate (FSTS), sorghum productivity in 2022/23 was better than the last year’s harvest due to generally favorable rainfall conditions; however, the season was nonetheless assessed as poor due to late sowing, a lack of agricultural finance, and heavy weed infestation. 

In the neighboring Eastern Khors Agropastoral Zones on the border between Kassala and Red Sea state, where poor groups from the areas of concern in Northern Kassala usually migrate for labor and fodder production, flooding and water logging started earlier and extended longer than usual, occurring from July through October 2022. The poor maintenance and preparation of irrigation systems contributed to high water logging that resulted in a 50 percent reduction in the area planted under flood irrigation (from 80,000 feddans normally to 40,000 feddans this year). This resulted in below-average labor opportunities and below-average fodder and sorghum production.

According to the preliminary findings of the CFSAM conducted at the end of December 2022, overall cereal production in Kassala is estimated to be above last year and the five-year average due to the above-average harvests in the rain-fed and semi-mechanized sectors following the generally favorable rainfall season (Figure 10). However, production in the Halfa Al Jaddeda irrigation scheme – which is one of the main staple food and fodder production centers in Kassala – was below average due to shortages and delayed provision of agricultural inputs, a lack of agricultural finance, and the impact of flooding and waterlogging on production. Sorghum and wheat production in the irrigated scheme dropped 37 and 16 percent compared to last year and 48 and 18 percent compared to the five-year average, respectively. Despite higher total cereal production in Kassala this year compared to last year, the state nonetheless remains a deficit production area, estimated to have a deficit of about 22 percent of the state-level cereal requirements this year. Consequently, Kassala will need to import approximately 127,000 metric tons to meet their cereal needs (Figure 11). 

Pasture and livestock conditions: In Kassala state, extensive rangelands covering approximately 6 million feddans serve the state’s herds, estimated at about nine million heads, as well as the migrating herds from the neighboring states. Kassala rangelands are typically preferred for being flat and free from houseflies. However, despite relatively better rainfall this year compared to last year, Kassala state faces a 20 to 30 percent fodder gap this year, mostly concentrated in the northern parts of the Shamal Al Delta and Talkok, due to the lack of palatable pasture plants. This has resulted in earlier-than-usual movements of large herds from northern rainy season grazing areas to summer season grazing areas in central Butana, as well as in the flood retreat areas and areas near the Halfa scheme in Kassala. Typically, these movements take place in February, but this year many pastoralists left with their herds in December. Poor and middle-income households with smaller herds are the most affected by the current fodder shortage as they will remain in the area, keeping their animals besides their residential areas and depending on market purchases at a relatively high cost. For example, the prices of fattening and milking cow feed increased by 13 percent compared to last year due to the increase in concentrate prices. Moreover, two consecutive years of drought and above-average staple food prices in the area have driven above-normal, distressed sales of livestock and contributed to reduced herd sizes. This trend has led to reduced household access to livestock products, reduced household purchasing power, and higher underlying vulnerability to new shocks, particularly among the poor households in the area.

Staple food prices and terms of trade (TOT): Following a declining post-harvest trend in prices since last August 2022, sorghum Tabat prices in Kassala town (the main supply market to the areas of concern in Eastern Pastoral livelihood zone), increased earlier-than-usual, selling at 400 SDG/kg in February 2023 compared to 310 SDG/kg in January 2023 and 286 SDG/Kg in February 2022. This amounts to a 40 percent increase compared to the same time last year and a 312 percent increase compared to the five-year average (Figure 12). Typically, sorghum prices in Hamashkoraib, Shamal Al Delta, and Talkok are about 10 to 20 percent higher than in Kassala due to the high cost of transportation. The early rise in prices in Kassala market this year are attributed to the reduced area planted and production in the nearby flood retreat areas of Kassala and underscored by the persistently high production and transportation costs and the weak SDG exchange rate.

In Kassala market, goat prices decreased slightly from December 2022 to February 2023 (from 17,334 SDG to 16,833 SDG per head), but remain 73 percent higher than last year (February 2022) and 277 percent higher than the five-year average. Goat prices in Hamashkoraib, Shamal Al Delta, and Talkok rural markets tend to be 7 to 10 percent lower than in Kassala market. 

Following a significant improvement in goat-to-sorghum TOT between November 2022 and January 2023 in Kassala market due in large part to the increase in sorghum prices in that period, the TOT dropped 25 percent between January and February 2023, resulting from the nearly 30 percent increase in sorghum prices while goat prices slightly declined. The current level of the TOT is 23 percent higher than in February 2022, but 42 percent below the five-year average for February. Further decline in the TOT is expected during the lean season, leading to a further reduction in the purchasing capacity of the poor wealth group (Figure 13).

Nutrition status: In June 2022, the prevalence of acute malnutrition was Critical (GAM 15-29.9 percent) in Aroma locality and Kassala Town. Based on analysis of past trends, this prevalence is atypically high for the area, even during the lean season period in which data was collected. The anticipated reduction in food access in terms of quality and quantity, driven by high food prices and wide consumption gaps during the lean season starting in May, will further worsen levels of acute malnutrition in many localities in the state.

Assumptions

In addition to the national-level assumptions, the following assumptions apply to this area of Sudan:

• The high concentration of livestock in search of pasture and water will drive a rapid increase in fodder prices and a decline in water resources. Fodder prices are anticipated to remain 50 to 100 percent higher than the higher prices of last year. 
• The earlier-than-usual reduction in market supplies and increased demand for sorghum for local consumption in the post-harvest period will drive price increases earlier than normal during the May and September 2023 lean season, as more households increase their dependency on market purchases. Given the relatively high cereal prices and transportation costs, prices in local markets are expected to continue to be above average throughout the lean season, with negative impacts on the already low household purchasing power of poor households in Kassala state, in general, and in the northern parts of the state, Hamashkoraib, Shamal Al Delta, and Talkok, in particular. Cereal prices will likely range from 40 to 60 above prices recorded in 2022 and over three times above the five-year average.
• Poor households in the areas of concern are likely to continue facing reduced purchasing power throughout the scenario period. Access to income for most poor households are expected to continue to be below average, limiting household purchasing power. Poor households are likely to increase their adoption of coping strategies indicative of Crisis (IPC Phase 3) or worse to minimize food consumption gaps.
• Information on plans for humanitarian food assistance in this area of Sudan is insufficient to establish an assumption about the frequency and quantity of food assistance deliveries. As a result, this scenario does not factor humanitarian food assistance into the analysis of most likely food security outcomes. 

Most Likely Food Security Outcomes

Between February and May 2023, which covers the post-harvest period (February to March) and the start of the lean season period (April to May), poor households in Hamashkoraib, Shamal Al Delta, and Talkok localities are likely to face food consumption gaps due to the extremely high prices of cereal and non-cereal food items, low levels of household income, and poor households’ heavy reliance on market purchases for food. Access to milk and other animal products is also expected to remain below average due to the lower-than-normal herd sizes following two consecutive years of poorly distributed rainfall, poor access to pasture, and excess animal sales. The smaller herd sizes limit household access to income and contribute to the reduction in household purchasing power, along with the above-average staple food prices. To cope with the situation and to secure cash income for food purchases, poor households are likely to maximize migration of household members to the main towns of Port Sudan, Sawaken, and Kassala for labor opportunities, intensify the production and sale of charcoal and firewood, and increase herding for better-off households. Nevertheless, poor households in areas of concern are not expected to secure enough income to meet their household’s requirements due to the anticipated high competition over available opportunities and the anticipated above-average food and non-food item prices. Early in the lean season (April/May), many households are expected to expand coping strategies to include sales of the remaining livestock and household assets to earn income. Therefore, poor households will likely remain in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) through May 2022. 

Between June and September 2023, which covers the peak of the lean season in August and September, cereal prices are anticipated to seasonally increase, with prices of other essential non-cereal food items expected to remain extremely high driven by the continued high cost of transportation, high inflation, and the continued weak exchange rate of the SDG. However, poor households’ income from local labor is likely to seasonally improve with the start of the upcoming June to September 2023 rainy season, along with increased access to milk from market purchases and gifts from better‐off households. Nonetheless, poor households will likely continue to deal with low purchasing power given anticipated high prices and low income which will affect household food consumption. Many households will likely engage in unsustainable coping strategies such as withdrawing children from school, borrowing money and food, and reducing non-food expenses. Some are expected to sell the last female animal. Due to the anticipated increase in food prices through the lean season, and increased use of coping strategies, area-level Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes will likely persist between June and September 2023 with increased number of people facing Emergency (IPC Phase 4) food security outcomes.

IDPs and conflict-affected households in Bielel locality: South Darfur State, Western Agropastoral Millet and Groundnuts livelihood zone (SD-12) (Figure 14)

Bielel locality in South Darfur State is mainly under the Millet and Groundnuts livelihood zone (SD-12), characterized by plains with scattered bush cover, sandy soils, and a mean annual rainfall of 250-350mm. The rainfall is sufficient to support cereal production, especially millet and sorghum, as well as groundnuts, but is frequently erratic. Watermelon seed and hibiscus are important cash crops and sources of income. Livestock herding is another key component of household economies with most households keeping small stocks – more sheep than goats by wealthier households, and more goats than sheep by poorer households. Better-off households also keep a small number of camels and/or cattle. Migratory labor and local agricultural labor typically constitute important sources of income for poor households.

Current Situation

Conflict: Bielel locality is one of the areas seriously affected by the longstanding Darfur conflict, particularly during the earlier years following the eruption of the war in Darfur in 2003. The locality hosts one of the biggest IDP camps in Darfur, adding to the pressure on existing services for host and IDP populations. In the third week of December, Bielel was affected by inter-communal clashes between members of the Arab-Abela (Rezeigat) and Dajo tribes in Amuray village. The current conflict has its roots in the herder/farmer resource disputes that escalate as the herders’ animals cause damage to crops while on their way to the summer season grazing areas in the southern plains. The recent clashes resulted in the death of 15 individuals, 35 individuals injured, and eight villages completely burned while others were partially affected, leading to the displacement of over 16,000 people who are in dire need of humanitarian assistance, according to the Humanitarian Aid Commission (HAC). The incidents also resulted in the significant loss of recently harvested staple foods (millet and sorghum) and cash crops from own production, as well as considerable damage to and looting of various household and productive assets, including livestock. Given these losses, IDPs and conflict-affected people are almost entirely dependent on food aid, support from relatives, and some purchases from the markets. 

2022/23 agricultural season: The 2022/23 rainy season was generally above average across South Darfur State. The cumulative rainfall in 11 stations ranged between 410 and 1275 mm of rainfall, well above the mean of 250 to 350mm. Additionally, no major dry spells were reported. Nonetheless, the‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬ overall cultivated area in South Darfur this season was lower than last season and the five-year average due to the high production costs and the prevailing insecurity situation in some remote areas of the state. As a result, both sorghum and millet production in South Darfur are estimated to be below average, about 10 percent lower than last year and around 20 percent lower than the five-year average, due to the reduced area cultivated and high losses in production resulting from conflict, which reduced access to farms in some areas. 

Staple food prices and terms of trade (TOT): Bielel market was significantly disrupted by the conflict and insecurity between December 2022 and February 2023. The disruption was reflected in terms of loss of the market stocks, closure of the market, and a significant increase in prices. The average sorghum price rose from 28,000 SDG/90-kg sack before the conflict to 43,000 SDG/90-kg sack in January, a 62 percent increase, while millet prices rose from 30,000 SDG/sack to 50,000 SDG/sack, a 67 percent increase. In January 2023, cereal prices in Bielel remained almost doubled compared to the Nyala market, the adjacent market to Bielel, due to the supply chain breakdown and the increased demand for local consumption.

In Nyala market, sorghum prices remained relatively stable and declined slightly between December 2022 and February 2023 as the cereals supply chain to Nyala was less impacted by the conflict in Bielel. Millet prices saw the same stable trend as sorghum prices from December 2022 to February 2023, following a significant decrease in millet prices between September and December 2022 before the start of the conflict. In February 2023, sorghum and millet prices in Nyala were 155-112 percent above last year and 561 -261 percent above the recent five-year average.

According to key informants from the locality, the livestock market in Bielel also experienced a disruption following the outbreak of conflict. Goat prices increased by 275 percent compared to November 2022, the pre-conflict period. The livestock price hike is due to the significant reduction in market supplies following extensive animal looting and movement of animals by herders to relatively more secure areas. In Nyala market, following an eight percent increase between November and December 2022, goat prices remained relatively stable between December 2022 and February 2023 due to reduced market demand. February prices remained 22 percent above last year and 69 percent above the five-year average. 

The relative stability of sorghum prices compared to goat prices resulted in a 37 percent increase in the goat-to-sorghum TOT between January and February 2023. However, as the lean season approaches, the TOT is expected to decline as cereal prices seasonally increase while livestock prices will likely follow a reverse trend. In Bielel, the TOT is likely to be below the levels in Nyala due to market disruptions and the loss of animals in the conflict. Therefore, most of the conflict-affected and displaced households in Beliel will continue to have limited access to their main livelihood activities with likely below-average access to cultivation during the upcoming agricultural season, will sustain low levels of income, and will face poor purchasing power through the scenario period.

Assumptions

In addition to the national-level assumptions, the following assumptions apply to this livelihood zone:

• Market supplies of staple foods are expected to improve from February to April 2023, as traders from the surplus areas in South Darfur State and central Sudan fill local market deficits and meet the high demand for market purchases from conflict-affected households. However, cereal prices are expected to follow steady seasonal increases during the May to September lean season due to the gradual depletion of cereal stocks, even in surplus markets. 
• Conflicts between pastoralists and farmers, along with disputes over natural resources, are expected to heighten around the beginning of the cultivation season in June through September 2023. 
• The majority of the displaced households from Beilel are likely to return to their areas of origin with the beginning of the cultivation during the upcoming rainy season in June, while some households will likely continue in their areas of displacement due to the continued insecurity situation in the area. 
• Based on past trends, it is assumed that emergency food assistance provided by WFP and the government will most likely reach more than 25 percent of the population, and that ration sizes will amount to at least 25 percent of monthly kilocalories needs, on average. This area is likely to be prioritized given the size of nearby camps and the considerable population that is internally displaced, have refugee status, or are otherwise conflict-affected.  

Most Likely Food Security Outcomes

From February to May 2023, the conflict-affected and poor households in the area will likely face increased difficulties in meeting their food requirements during this period as the stocks attained from their own production were mostly burnt or looted, while the remaining food stocks will be reduced during the post-harvest and the pre-lean season period. The anticipated significantly above-average prices will further limit access to market purchase, with the high prices of cereal and non-cereal food items expected to continue reducing poor households’ access to adequate food and dietary diversity through May. Currently, IDPs and other conflict-affected households are likely depending heavily on humanitarian food assistance, and they are expected to continue to receive assistance, as well as support from relatives and purchases from the market. Given the limited purchasing power of poor households and the expected above-average price of cereal and non-cereal food items towards the beginning of the lean season in May, most of the poor and conflict-affected households’ access to adequate basic food items will further deteriorate. To cope with the situation, an increasing proportion of households will likely pursue strategies such as above-normal migration for labor, increase in wood and charcoal collection and sales, reduction of expenses on non-food items, borrowing of money or food, or withdrawal of children from schools. Nonetheless, most households will continue to struggle to meet their household food requirements and will face food consumption gaps indicative of Crisis! (IPC Phase 3!), with assistance mitigating deterioration to worse outcomes. IDPs and conflict-affected poor households in the area will likely remain in Crisis! (IPC Phase 3!) through May 2023.

During the June to September 2023 lean season, IDPs and poor conflict-affected households, having exhausted food stocks by the beginning of the lean season, will become increasingly dependent on market purchases, but with reduced access to income. Most households will likely earn income from migratory labor and remittances, agricultural wage labor, and the collection and sale of firewood and charcoal. However, income is likely to be below normal levels due to insecurity and high tension in the area. Additionally, increased demand and reduced market supply will drive price increases of cereal and non-cereal food items, limiting household purchasing power. While in-kind payments from agricultural labor will slightly mitigate the decline in food access, in-kind payments are expected to be below average given that access to farms will be impacted by the tension, risk of conflict, and insecurity over natural resources. During this latter part of the projection period, the IDPs and conflict-affected poor households will attain part of their food needs from the green harvest starting August 2023 while government and humanitarian partners will likely continue to provide basic services and humanitarian assistance to the conflict-affected households. However, the food consumption deficit of these households in the area is likely to widen further as the lean season progresses. Most households will not be able to meet their food requirements during this time. The prevalence of acute malnutrition is likely to increase in many localities in the state as a result of reduced access to food and driven by the high food prices and anticipated food consumption gaps during the lean season. Accordingly, area-level Crisis! (IPC Phase 3!) outcomes will likely persist between June and September 2023, with increased number of people facing Emergency (IPC Phase 4) food security outcomes.

Recommended Citation: FEWS NET. Sudan Food Security Outlook February to September 2023: Conflict and high food prices drive high food assistance needs in 2023, 2023.