Food security to deteriorate in June as the lean season begins

• An escalation of inter-tribal fighting and conflict between Sudan Armed Forces (SAF) and Darfur armed rebel groups since the beginning of this year has displaced an estimated 145,000 people, mostly in East, Central and North Darfur. 

• Staple food prices remained stable or slightly decreased between March and April, following seasonal trends. Current staple food price levels declined compared to last year but remain well above the five-year average.

• Food security is expected to deteriorate in June as the lean season begins. Areas of greatest concern are conflict-affected areas of South Kordofan, Blue Nile, and Darfur where newly displaced households and those without access to humanitarian assistance will face Crisis (IPC Phase 3).   

Renewed tribal conflict between Rezeighat and Ma’liya tribes near the Abu Karinka area of East Darfur State erupted in early May due to competition over natural resources. Fighting in these areas caused new displacement, destruction of homesteads, looting of household assets, disruption of markets, and civilian casualties. Displacement of nearly 24,000 people has mainly occurred within East Darfur and to neighboring states, mainly to border areas of North Darfur and West Kordofan states.

In other parts of Darfur, fighting between SAF and Darfur armed opposition groups declined in recent weeks, although the situation remains very tense in North, Central and Western Jebel Marra in Central Darfur. Ongoing insecurity continues to disrupt trade in these areas, and with neighboring Darfur markets. Restricted trade has negatively impacted  households’ ability to sell fruits, vegetables, and timber, a primary source of income for people living in these areas. Increased fighting between SAF and SPLM-N in Bau locality of Blue Nile state has also displaced an estimated 30,000 to Damazin and Roseries localities in recent weeks. Since the beginning of this year, an estimated 145,000 have been displaced across Darfur due to tribal conflict and  fighting between SAF and Darfur armed opposition So far, humanitarian agencies have verified and assisted about a third of new IDPs (internally displaced persons), due to limited access to displaced populations. 

During the first week of May, the State Ministry of Health conducted nutrition screenings of children under five years of age in Koskare and surrounding villages in Sayah Admin Unit, North Darfur. Results from the screening found a prevalence of Global Acute Malnutrition (GAM) of 14.7 percent among the 1,568 children screened, as measured by Mid-Upper Arm Circumference (MUAC).

Staple food prices between March and April remained generally stable or declined slightly across most of reference markets, except in El Fasher, North Darfur, where prices increased by 6 percent due to insecurity and disruptions to trade. On average, sorghum price levels in April were 17 percent lower than last year, but remained 60 percent above the five-year average. Millet prices followed similar trends, declining by 12 percent compared to last year, but remained 67 percent higher than five-year average. Wheat price levels remained 30 percent higher than last year and 77 percent above than the five-year average. 

Mixed trends were observed for sorghum to daily wage labor terms of trade (ToT) in April, declining in some markets and increasing in others. In Zalingi, ToT between daily wage labor and sorghum declined by 24 percent in April and were 40 percent lower than respective month last year. In Gedaref sorghum to daily wage labor ToT increased by 14 percent and were 6 percent lower than last year.

Over 13,000 South Sudanese refugees arrived in West Kordofan during he month of May following an significant escalation of fighting in the Greater Upper Nile region of South Sudan. Ongoing conflict in Upper Nile, Unity and  Bahr el Ghazal states of South Sudan is likely to generate new waves of refugees in border areas of South Kordofan, White Nile and West Kordofan states of Sudan.

Assumptions made in the Sudan Food Security Outlook for April to September 2015 remain unchanged.

Food security conditions will deteriorate in June as the lean season begins and poor households increase reliance on markets for food. Food security will be most severe in areas of South Kordofan, Darfur and Blue Nile states where ongoing conflict will continue to disrupt trade flow and access to markets, as well as access to agricultural labor by poor households, a primary source of income. Areas of most concern are conflict-affected areas of Darfur, and in South Kordorfan and Blue Nile under SPLM-N control, where newly displaced households and/or IDPs with poor access to humanitarian assistance will remain in Crisis (IPC Phase 3). Humanitarian assistance will continue to prevent deterioration to Crisis (IPC Phase 3) among about a third of the displaced population in Darfur. An estimated 20 to 25 percent of poor households in the drought prone areas of Red Sea, northern parts of North Darfur and North Kordofan states are likely to face income deficits to purchase their minimum food requirements and will face Stressed (IPC Phase 2) acute food insecurity by the beginning of lean season in June.