Food insecurity worsens as peak lean season approaches

• An estimated 5 million people are acutely food insecure in Sudan, a 10 percent increase since April. Food security is expected to deteriorate as a result of ongoing displacement in South Kordofan, Darfur and Blue Nile states, record-high food prices, and the continued influx of refugees from South Sudan.
• Continued conflict in South Kordofan and Blue Nile states has triggered additional displacement in these areas. With the peak of the lean season in June, ongoing displacement is likely to cause worsening food security outcomes and an increased number of people in Crisis and Emergency (IPC Phase 3 and 4) in SPLM-N controlled areas.
• Due to the likelihood of an El Niño starting as early as July, the June to September main rainy season is forecast to be normal to below-normal. Below-average rains are expected across the main surplus producing areas of Sudan. Delayed planting in June and July is expected to reduce total area planted across Sudan.

• Staple foods prices continued to rise atypically in April. Retail sorghum prices increased between 7 and 18 percent this month and are 53 percent higher than last year. Currently, retail sorghum prices are 129 percent higher than the five-year average. Prices are highest in EL Fasher, Nyala, Singa, Omdurman, EL Damer and El Obied markets. Wheat wholesale prices reported mixed trends between March and April. Increased supply from wheat harvests in 2014 has lowered prices for private millers. This year’s wheat harvest in Sudan is projected to be nearly 45 percent higher than last year as a result of favorable growing conditions. Nevertheless, local wheat production in Sudan only covers 20 to 25 percent of domestic consumption.
• Terms of trade for livestock to cereals deteriorated further as staple food prices continue out-pace livestock prices. In April, terms of trade between sheep and sorghum in Om Durman market in Khartoum decreased by 10 percent compared to last month and it is 40 percent lower than last year (Figure 3).
• Intensified clashes between Sudan Armed Forces (SAF) and the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement – North (SPLM-N) in the eastern mountains of South Kordofan State since mid-April has generated additional displacement from these areas. According to International Organization for Migration and the Government Humanitarian Aid Commission, About 13,500 people were displaced to government-controlled areas and a reported 40,000 to 70,000 people were displaced within SPLM-N controlled areas. The large number of internally displaced persons (IDPs) within SPLM-N controlled areas is of much concern as food security conditions for IDPs in these areas is already at Emergency (IPC Phase 4) levels. IDPs in SPLM-N controlled areas are reportedly relying on support provided by host communities.
• State authorities in South and East Darfur states confirmed large food deficits due to last year’s poor harvest. It is estimated that South and East Darfur states will have a staple food deficit of 228,000 tons and 175,000 tons, respectively. Because most households are market dependent this time of year, many are unable to access minimum food requirements because of very high food prices. Poor households in high defect areas, like Shiriya locality in East Darfur, have reportedly resorted to high-risk coping strategies. The government’s Strategic Grain Reserve Corporation pledged 20,000 tons of sorghum to help bridge the food gap in East and South Darfur sates and WFP is expected to provide seasonal food assistance to resident communities in Darfur during the peak lean season from June to September. However, it is unlikely that food assistance will cover food deficits and FEWS NET expects significant food consumption gaps in North, East and South Darfur states. 
• By the end of May, earlier than normal rains were reported in southern and central Sudan. However, with an increased likelihood of an El Niño starting by July, forecasts for the June to September main rainy season indicate near-normal to below-normal rains. Projected below-normal rains are expected to extend across most of the country’s surplus producing areas. Planting in June will likely be disrupted by below-normal rains
• An additional 20,000 South Sudanese refugees arrived in Sudan in April and May.  Since the conflict began in December 2013, an estimated 80,000 people have crossed the border into Sudan. The main refugee reception areas are: White Nile State with 36,964 refugees, Khartoum with 23,780, and South Kordofan with 13,713 refugees. So far, about 65 percent of South Sudanese refugees in Sudan received humanitarian assistance including food aid. 

Most of the assumptions made in the Sudan Food Security Outlook for June to September 2014 remain unchanged.

• In April it was assumed that the June to September main rainy season would be near average. However, due to the increased probability of El Niño as early as July, seasonal cumulative rainfall, which typically accounts for over 50 percent of annual rainfall in Sudan, is expected to be average to below-average. A tendency toward below-average rains is expected for the second half of the season.  Below-average rains during June and July could delay planting and result in below-average area planted across Sudan. A second consecutive year of below-average precipitation in Sudan is likely to elicit precarious food security outcomes in year 2015.

• In SPLM-N controlled areas of South Kordofan, Crisis and Emergency (IPC Phase 3 and 4) food insecurity will persist at least among 40 percent of IDPs and poor host community households through September. In GoS-controlled areas of South Kordofan and Blue Nile, where most vulnerable households have relatively better access to markets and humanitarian assistance than in SPLM-N-controlled areas, most households are likely to face Stressed (IPC Phase 2) food insecurity through September 2014.
• Over 30 percent of poor households in drought prone areas of Red Sea, Kassala, White Nile and North Kordofan states are likely to have reduced access to food—below the minimum threshold for survival—due to the continued rise in food prices and above-average dependency on market purchase for food during the peak lean season, from June to September. 
• In Darfur, even with continued humanitarian food assistance through September, Stressed (IPC Phase 2) food insecurity is likely to persist at least among 30 percent of long-term IDPs and resident communities as households are still experiencing the impact of last year’s drought. Pockets of populations who do not receive food assistance are likely to face Crisis (IPC Phase 3) food insecurity.