Rising hostilities continue to cause new waves of displacement

• The final results of 2014/15 Annual Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission (CFSAM) estimated record-high national cereal production of 7.84 million tons, including 6.3 million tons of sorghum and 1.1 million tons of millet. Production was about three-times last year’s poor harvest and 84 percent higher than  the five-year average.

• Cereal prices continue to decline in most markets, but remain well above average. However, wage labor to cereals terms of trade is improving and currently better than last year, strengthening purchasing power and access to markets for the poor. 

• Rising hostilities since the beginning of January displaced thousands in South Kordofan, Darfur and Blue Nile states. Displaced households in these areas are market dependent and have limited access to labor opportunities due to insecurity. Thus, Stressed (IPC Phase 2!) and Crisis (IPC Phase 3) likely to persist among IDPs in these areas.

Current food security outcomes are similar to those observed in January, although the size of the food insecure population increased due to an escalation of conflict and displacement in Darfur, South Kordofan, and Blue Nile states.

Rising hostilities in some parts of East Jebel Marra, West Jebel Marra, Tawila, Korma, Um Baru, and Kuttum localities in North Darfur prompted massive displacement to villages and IDP camps in North and Central Darfur. By mid-February, humanitarian agencies registered roughly 41,000 new IDPs in North Darfur State. Current estimates suggest that an additional 60,000 people have been displaced in areas of East and West Jebel Marra inaccessible to humanitarian agencies. In South Kordofan and parts of Blue Nile, hostilities between Sudan Armed Forces (SAF) and Sudan People’s Liberation Movement-North (SPLM-N) since January have forced thousands to flee to the Nuba Mountains, large towns in government-held areas, or across the border to refugee camps in South Sudan. The Humanitarian Aid Commission (HAC) of Sudan estimates that over 100,000 new IDPs have fled the ongoing hostilities in Um Dorien, Heiban and Buram localities, to large urban centers in government-controlled areas of South Kordofan.    

The final results of 2014/15 Annual Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission (CFSAM) estimated record-high national cereal production of 7.84 million tons, including 6.3 million tons of sorghum and 1.1 million tons of millet. Production forecasts estimate 0.5 million tons of winter wheat. National production in 2014/15 was about  three times of last year’s poor harvests and almost double (84 percent) the five-year average (Figure 1). Cash crop production was also well above average. For example, sesame production increased by 252 percent and 110 percent compared to last year and the five-year average, respectively. Staple food and cash crop production have increased access to food and income for most poor households.

Staple food prices continued to decline seasonably across most markets.  On average, sorghum prices decreased by 8 percent between December and January. The highest price decreases were observed in El Obied—the main wholesale market in North Kordofan—where sorghum prices dropped by 25 percent. Sorghum prices declined by 12 percent in Kadgugli (South Kordofan), and 9 percent in Nyala (South Darfur State). Similar trends were observed for millet last month. Despite these downward trends typical of the harvest period, current food prices remained well above the five-year average due to high inflation, and the high cost of production and transportation. Current sorghum prices dropped to levels similar to last year, while wheat and millet prices remained around 30 percent above last year (Figures 2 and 3). On average, cereal prices remain between 70 to 120 percent above the five-year average.

Livestock prices either remained stable at low prices or decreased slightly in January. Terms of trade (ToT) between livestock and cereals improved as staple food prices continued to decline. Wage labor to cereals ToT continues to improve and is currently 10 to 20 percent higher than  the same time last year, strengthening purchasing power for the poor and access to markets. 

Assumptions made in the Sudan Food Security Outlook for October 2014 to March 2015 remain unchanged, except the following:

Based on preliminary findings of CFSAM, FEWS NET projected 50 percent above average harvest of 2014/15 season in Sudan. However, the final CFSAM report released in February, revealed 84 percent above-average production.  

Improved food security conditions in most parts of Sudan as a result of improved access to food and income related to harvests are expected to continue through April across most of Sudan. Due to limited access to labor opportunities, high market reliance and well above-average prices, Crisis (IPC Phase 3) is likely to persist among IPD and poor host community populations in parts of Darfur, South Kordorfan, and Blue Nile. Food security outcomes will begin to decline again in May and June as the lean season begins.