Famine Early Warning Systems Network

Seasonal performance

In August, above-average rainfall reduced cumulative rainfall deficits, resulting in flooding across the country. According to CHIRPS satellite data, as of August 20, cumulative rainfall is at least greater than 105 to over 145 percent of the 40-year average across most of central, western, and eastern Sudan, with 85 to 105 percent of cumulative rainfall in South Kordofan (Figure 1). In northern North Darfur and parts of the Northern state, cumulatively below-average rainfall averages persist following below-average rainfall in June and July 2022. However, heavy rainfall across Sudan and the northwestern parts of Ethiopia in late July and early August is resulting in rising Nile water levels and flash floods. As of August 28, 2022, the flooding level threshold at Ed Deim, Khartoum, and Atbara are above the flooding threshold, with Shandi station recording water levels above the Critical level, indicating that flooding is likely in the short term. According to the government's Humanitarian Aid Commission (HAC) and OCHA, as of August 28, over 226,000 people have been affected by the heavy rains and flash floods, with over 47,400 houses and 3000 health units destroyed or damaged, along with contaminating water sources in 15 states. Preliminary reports indicate that over 740 heads of livestock are estimated to have been lost, along with the flooding or waterlogging of over 140,000 feddans (~60,000 hectares) of cropped land. The states with the most affected number of people include Gedaref, Central Darfur, South Darfur, White Nile, Kassala, River Nile, and West Darfur states.

The above-average rainfall has improved vegetation conditions across much of Sudan. According to the satellite-derived normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), vegetation greenness is average to above average across most of Sudan, with localized areas in southern Sudan recording below-average vegetation greenness following below-average rainfall in June and July, which delayed the start of planting (Figure 2). Heavy rainfall and flooding in late July and early August likely continue to impact vegetation and crop development in some of the central and eastern parts of the country with below-average vegetation greenness.

The agricultural season remains constrained by the impact of high prices and shortages of agricultural inputs, and delays to the start of the season. As of mid-August, there are no available government estimates on the area planted. However, late planting was reported by the Ministry of Agriculture and Forests (MFA) in most of the traditional and semi-mechanized rain-fed sectors due to delayed and below-average rainfall in June and July, along with intercommunal clashes. In the irrigated sector, the high prices and shortages of agricultural inputs and fuel, along with limited access to loans and financial support from the Agricultural Bank of Sudan (ABS) to purchase inputs and hire labor, are impacting farmers and likely resulting in below-average cropped land. According to key informants in Al Gadaref, one of the most productive areas of Sudan, agricultural inputs are approximately 300-500 percent higher compared to last year, with the price of sorghum, millet, and sesame seeds increasing from 300- 500 SDG/kg in 2021 to 800- 2400 SDG/kg in 2022. According to the MFA, as of mid-August, around 35-40 percent of the targeted area for planting in Al Gadaref has been planted, over 40 percent lower than the area planted in August 2021. In the irrigated sectors, an estimated 30-35 percent of the targeted areas for planting are planted. Overall, the compounding effect of late planting, high prices of agricultural inputs, and flooding are likely to affect crop productivity and result in a well-below average national harvest. A joint mid-season assessment is planned for the first week of September to assess the agricultural season's performance and crop development. Findings will likely be reported in the October Food Security Outlook.

Desert locust

In August, desert locusts do not threaten crop production in Sudan. According to FAO's August 2022 Desert Locust Bulletin, low-density immature and mature adult groups mixed with scattered adults, as well as 4^th to 6^th instar hopper groups and fledglings, were found at one location near Derbi in the River Nile State. Additional scattered mature solitarious adults were seen at other sites near Abu-Hamed and east of Shendi in River Nile state. Additional isolated and scattered mature solitarious adults were seen near Kassala. Low numbers of mature solitarious adults were also reported at a few sites in North Kordofan, White Nile, and west and east Khartoum states.

Macroeconomic Situation

The economic situation has continued to deteriorate in Sudan due to ongoing low foreign currency reserves, the depreciation of the SDG, high inflation rates, longstanding insecurity, and political instability. These compounding drivers are resulting in increasing food and transportation costs, high prices, and shortages of medicine, energy, and imported food and non-food items. In mid-August 2022, commercial banks and the parallel market are trading at around 569-572 SDG/USD compared to 443-448 SDG/USD in August 2021 (Figure 3). In early August 2022, the government of Sudan raised the official price of the customs dollar (the exchange rate for foreign currencies in the customs system) from 445 SDG to 564 SDG, resulting in a 30 percent increase in customs duties and around a 15 percent increase in fuel prices. Sudan's fuel prices are now retailing on average at around 935 SDG/liter (~6.20 USD/gallon), over 135 percent above respective prices last year and over five times higher than in October 2020 (Figure 4). This has led to a 15-20 percent increase in the cost of transportation, reducing the supply of commodities to markets, and a 10-15 percent increase in the price of most imported food and non-food items. Overall, the increasing fuel and food prices constrain household purchasing power across Sudan, as seen in the rising consumer price index (Figure 5). Although the annual percent change of the CPI has declined from a peak of over 400 percent in July 2021, triple-digit percent differences are still being recorded, indicating that food and non-food prices are continuing to rise rapidly. In July 2022, the consumer price index is around 125 percent higher than in July 2021.

Staple food prices and terms-of-trade

Staple food prices continue to increase seasonally due to increased market demand and high transportation costs. In August, the average retail price for sorghum and millet is 405 SDG/kg and 730 SDG/kg, with prices increasing by 10-15 percent between July and August 2022 across most markets (Figure 4). The rise in prices is mainly attributed to seasonally reduced market supplies and increased demand exacerbated by high transportation costs. Traders are also limiting supply to maintain their stocks due to the high transportation cost and anticipation of the below-average harvest. Sorghum and millet prices are retailing on average at around 405 and 765 SDG/kg in August 2022, approximately 170-235 percent higher than in August 2021 and about seven times higher than the five-year average. However, locally produced wheat prices in August are relatively stable compared to July due to the availability of stocks from the April 2022 harvest and imported wheat and wheat flour; however, prices are still high across most markets in Sudan. In August 2022, locally produced wheat sold for 602 SDG/kg, around 165 percent over respective prices in 2021 and almost 670 percent above the five-year average. The high locally produced wheat prices are mainly attributed to the continued higher than normal prices for imported wheat, wheat flour, and other cereal and non-cereal food items. Cereal prices are anticipated to continue to increase, at least through the beginning of the harvest in November 2022.

Livestock prices are declining following lower demand after the Eid Al Adha festivals in July and increased market supply as pastoralists sell livestock for income to purchase food. Following a 15-20 percent increase in goat and sheep prices in July due to high demand for local consumption and exports during the Eid Al Adha festivals,  goat and sheep prices declined by 10-15 percent in August across most main markets in Sudan. Nevertheless, goat and sheep prices in August 2022 are almost 85-100 percent above their respective prices last year and about 400-500 percent above the five-year average. The above-average livestock prices are primarily driven by the high cost of animal husbandry and transportation costs, in addition to the devaluation of the SDG.

Since January 2022, the livestock-to-cereal terms-of-trade (TOT), a proxy for pastoral household purchasing power, is continuing to deteriorate, driven primarily by rising sorghum and millet prices. In August 2022, the goat-to-sorghum TOT in El Obied's main market in North Kordofan state is 108 kg of sorghum per head of a goat, a nearly 20 percent drop compared to June (Figure 6). The decline in the TOT is mainly driven by a 30 percent increase in sorghum, while goat prices remained relatively stable. The August goat-to-sorghum TOT in El Obied is approximately 50 percent lower than respective prices last year and nearly 40 percent lower than the five-year average. In the Al Gadaref market of eastern Sudan, the wage-labor-to-sorghum TOT in August remained at 8 kg of sorghum per daily wage, around a 25 percent drop compared to June due to a nearly 50 percent increase in sorghum prices while daily labor wages increased just over 10 percent between June and August 2022. For a household of six, 8 kg of sorghum can provide around two days of kilocalorie needs if the household just eats sorghum. However, given the high prices of all other food and non-food needs, households are likely to purchase less than 8 kg of sorghum. In the Al Gadaref market, the wage-labor-to-sorghum TOT remains 70 percent below last year and nearly 60 percent lower than the five-year average. The drop in the wage-labor-to-sorghum TOT compared to last year is mainly driven by the significant increases in sorghum prices. At the same time, labor wages remain relatively stable due to lower labor demand due to the delayed start of planting and increased availability of laborers from Ethiopia. The decline in household TOT and the above-average prices of food and non-food items will likely continue constraining household purchasing power until the start of the harvest in November 2022.

Conflict and displacement

Between July and mid-August 2022, around 14 violent intercommunal clashes were monitored by DTM in eight states across different parts of Sudan. Intercommunal clashes continued across the Darfur and Kordofan regions, Blue Nile state, and Kassala state. The most recent violent clashes occurred in Kutum (Molagat Village), North Darfur state, displacing 2,500 people. However, the most severe conflict occurred in Blue Nile state, where an estimated 37,760 people (~6,185 households) were displaced to different areas in Blue Nile, Sennar, White Nile, Al Jazira, and Khartoum states. The DTM field teams indicate that at least 180 people were killed, and around 6,490 reported cases of the loss of goods and livestock.

Between the end of April and mid-August 2022, intercommunal clashes across Sudan displaced over 61,560 people. Most of the recent conflicts are driven by disputes over land, competition for scarce natural resources, political instability, civil unrest, and the increased presence of multiple armed groups from the Juba Peace Agreement (JPA) in Darfur, Kordofan, and Blue Nile states. Across Sudan, the rise in clashes is resulting in fatalities, the burning of villages, and the loss of livelihood assets such as farm equipment, seeds, food stocks, and livestock.

Humanitarian Assistance

In July 2022, WFP and implementing partners provided approximately 1.36 million beneficiaries with 50 percent rations of in-kind food assistance (~11,565 metric tons) and around 531,000 USD in cash transfers. Most beneficiaries included IDPs and conflict-affected people in Greater Darfur, Greater Kordofan, the Blue Nile states, refugees from South Sudan, Eritrea, and Ethiopia, people affected by inter-communal clashes and floods, and the chronically food-insecure areas of eastern and western Sudan. WFP plans to distribute over 83,560 metric tons and over 105 USD million in cash transfers to 8.7 million beneficiaries between August and December 2022.