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Mediocre season likely in the eastern Horn

  • Special Report
  • East Africa
  • March 9, 2012
Mediocre season likely in the eastern Horn

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  • Key Messages
  • Partner
    Key Messages
    • Though forecasts are relatively weak, FEWS NET’s forecast analysis suggests that, in the most‐likely scenario, March‐May rainfall in the eastern Horn of Africa will be ten percent below‐ average and poorly distributed. A mediocre season would not be expected to have substantial negative impacts on crop and livestock production.  

    • In the worst‐case scenario, rainfall will be 50‐70 percent of average. This would severely affect rainfed crop production and pasture/water availability. There is a 1 in 6 chance that rainfall totals will be less than 70 percent of average.  

    • Given the impacts of extreme food insecurity and famine during 2011 on human health and household livelihoods, and the elevated probability of a poor March‐May season in the eastern Horn of Africa, humanitarian partners should prepare contingency plans that could quickly address any disruptions to crop/livestock production and household food access that may occur.


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    Occasionally, FEWS NET will publish a Special Report that serves to provide an in-depth analysis of food security issues of particular concern that are not covered in FEWS NET’s regular monthly reporting. These reports may focus on a specific factor driving food security outcomes anywhere in the world during a specified period of time. For example, in 2019, FEWS NET produced a Special Report on widespread flooding in East Africa and its associated impacts on regional food security.

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