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Reduced area planted likely in conflict-affected areas

  • Seasonal Monitor
  • South Sudan
  • July 26, 2014
Reduced area planted likely in conflict-affected areas

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  • Key Messages
  • Partners
    USGS
    NOAA
    Key Messages
    • Moderate to heavy rains continued across South Sudan during the second dekad of July (Figure 1), although rainfall was below-average in Northern Bahr el Ghazal and the extreme southeast of Eastern Equatoria (Figure 5). Cumulative rainfall since the beginning of the season has been average to above average overall, with well above-average cumulative rainfall in the north of the country (Figure 9). Cumulative rainfall totals since April 1 range from 500 millimeters (mm) in the East to 1000 mm in the West (Figure 8).
    • In Thornyor, Piliny, Adok, and Yang areas of Leer County, Unity State, maize and sorghum planting started late, in early July. Flooding in Yang and Thornyor over the last dekad is likely to affect performance of germinating crops and reduce yields in these areas. Floods could further reduce harvests in these areas, already expected to be below average because of reduced area planted. Rainfall performance has been favorable in Mayendit County in terms of quantity and distribution. Households that cultivated reported selling or bartering livestock for maize seeds in Mayom, and sorghum seeds in Phom/ Old Fangak in Jonglei. Households unable to purchase seeds are not likely to plant this year.
    • In Nasir, Longechuk, and Ulang counties of Upper Nile, crops are at flowering and milking stages of growth. However, significant reductions in area planted are expected in these counties. Field monitoring reports roughly estimate that more than 50 percent of households may not cultivate in these areas due to displacement and insecurity. Field reports also indicate reduced planting in Uror, Nyirol, and Akobo counties in Jonglei. Preliminary estimates suggest that 20 to 40 percent of households in these counties have not yet planted.
    • The Global Forecast System (GFS) precipitation forecast indicates, moderate to heavy rainfall across most of South Sudan in the coming week (Figure 12), with up to 100 mm forecast in northern Unity and Warrap states.

      

    Figures Figure 1. Rainfall estimate (RFE2) in mm, July 11-20, 2014

    Figure 1

    Figure 1. Rainfall estimate (RFE2) in mm, July 11-20, 2014

    Source: FEWS NET/NOAA

    Figure 12. GFS rainfall forecast in mm for July 25-31, 2014

    Figure 2

    Figure 12. GFS rainfall forecast in mm for July 25-31, 2014

    Source: FEWS NET/NOAA

    FEWS NET’s Seasonal Monitor reports are produced for Central America and the Caribbean, West Africa, East Africa, Central Asia, and Somalia every 10-to-30 days during the region’s respective rainy season(s). Seasonal Monitors report updates on weather events (e.g., rainfall patterns) and associated impacts on ground conditions (e.g., cropping conditions, pasture and water availability), as well as the short-term rainfall forecast. Find more remote sensing information here.

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