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Flooding in parts Unity State may affect crop progress

  • Seasonal Monitor
  • South Sudan
  • July 14, 2014
Flooding in parts Unity State may affect crop progress

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  • Key Messages
  • Partners
    USGS
    NOAA
    Key Messages
    • South Sudan received moderate to heavy rains during the first dekad of July with the heaviest rains in northern Unity State. Rainfall in northern Unity was well-above average, between 100 to 300 millimeters. Rains were below-average in parts of Western Equatoria, Lakes and localized areas of eastern Jonglei.
    • Downward trends in the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) continued in eastern Jonglei and eastern Upper Nile, as well parts of Unity State. Although the NDVI remains near average in most parts of the country, downward trends in some counties suggest an increased likelihood of below-average vegetation in these areas.
    • In Rubkona County, Unity State, most farmers planted in June and crops are currently at vegetative stages. Field assessments reported that IDPs in Rubkona planted at least some crops. However, water logging and flooding in some areas is likely to affect crop performance. Flooding was also reported in Mayom County. Weeding is ongoing in Pariang County, despite erratic rains in June. Reports indicate that planting has not yet begun in Panyang, Yida, Biu, and Nyel payams.
    • Rains resumed at the end of June in Nyirol and Uror counties in Jonglei State, and some households are still likely to continue planting in July. Rains in early July mitigated dry conditions in Akobo County, enabling crop recovery, especially sorghum. Some IDPs from Duk County have returned to plant crops. Most are planting groundnuts because it is too late in the season to plant sorghum. In areas of Duk where households have not returned, such as Padiet and Payuel, little to no cultivation is likely.
    • Significant reductions in area planted are expected in Malakal and Panyikang counties in Upper Nile State due to insecurity. Some households from these counties moved to more secure areas of Kodok, Renk, Akoka, and Melut where planting is possible.
    • In Greater Kapoeta, heavy rains fell in the first dekad of July, ending a prolonged period of dryness and enabling the replenishment of soil moisture.
    • The Global Forecast System (GFS) precipitation forecast indicates above-average, moderate to heavy rainfall across most of South Sudan in the coming week. Already saturated grounds and localized flooding in some areas elevates the risk for localized flash flooding.

         

    Figures Rainfall estimate (RFE2) in mm, July 1-10, 2014

    Figure 1

    Rainfall estimate (RFE2) in mm, July 1-10, 2014

    Source: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)

    Global Forecast System (GFS) rainfall forecast in mm for July 11-21, 2014

    Figure 2

    Global Forecast System (GFS) rainfall forecast in mm for July 11-21, 2014

    Source: NOAA Global Forecasting System/ Climate Prediction Center (CPC)

    FEWS NET’s Seasonal Monitor reports are produced for Central America and the Caribbean, West Africa, East Africa, Central Asia, and Somalia every 10-to-30 days during the region’s respective rainy season(s). Seasonal Monitors report updates on weather events (e.g., rainfall patterns) and associated impacts on ground conditions (e.g., cropping conditions, pasture and water availability), as well as the short-term rainfall forecast. Find more remote sensing information here.

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