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Despite above average rains, reduced harvests are expected across Greater Upper Nile

  • Seasonal Monitor
  • South Sudan
  • August 6, 2014
Despite above average rains, reduced harvests are expected across Greater Upper Nile

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  • Key Messages
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    Key Messages
    • Moderate to heavy rains continued across South Sudan during the thrid dekad of July, with pockets of below-average rainfall in central and western areas of the country, and above- average rains in localized areas in the East. Cumulative rainfall since April has been above average for most of the country, with more than 750 millimeters (mm) in some areas.
    • Planting has been staggered across southern Unity State as displaced households continue return to their home villages. Rough estimates based on field assessments indicate that between 30 to 40 percent of households in Koch, Leer, Mayendit, Guit, and Payinijar will not plant this year. Cultivating households have planted smaller plots than normal because of insecurity, seed shortages and increased time spent searching for food. In these counties, production deficits of up to 50 percent are expected. Harvest prospects are much better in the northern counties of Abiemnhom, Mayom, Pariang, and Rubkona, where near-normal levels of cultivation have been reported. Green harvests are expected starting in mid-August.
    • Most households in Jonglei planted this season. Even in conflict-affected counties, roughly 80 percent of households are reported to have planted, with the exception of Ayod, Duk and Twic East counties where an estimated 30 to 40 percent of households will not cultivate. Important reductions in area planted are anticipated in most conflict-affected areas. The most significant production deficits are anticipated in Ayod, Duk, and Twic counties where harvests are likely to be 50 percent of normal. Green harvests will be available from mid-August to early September.
    • Reduced harvests are also expected in Upper Nile, in Baliet, Nasir, Malakal, Melut, Panyikang, and Ulang counties where significant proportions of households have not planted because of conflict and associated displacement, and seed shortages. Production deficits of up to 75 percent are likely in Manyo, Malakal, and Baliet counties. In most areas, green harvests are expected in late August/early September.
    • The Global Forecast System (GFS) precipitation forecast indicates, moderate to heavy rainfall across most of South Sudan in the coming week (Figure 12), with relatively less rainfall in parts of northern Unity, Jonglei and Upper Nile states.


    Figures Rainfall estimate (RFE2) in mm, July 21-31, 2014

    Figure 1

    Rainfall estimate (RFE2) in mm, July 21-31, 2014

    Source: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)

    GFS rainfall forecast in mm for August 7-13, 2014

    Figure 2

    GFS rainfall forecast in mm for August 7-13, 2014

    Source: NOAA Global Forecasting System/ Climate Prediction Center (CPC)

    FEWS NET’s Seasonal Monitor reports are produced for Central America and the Caribbean, West Africa, East Africa, Central Asia, and Somalia every 10-to-30 days during the region’s respective rainy season(s). Seasonal Monitors report updates on weather events (e.g., rainfall patterns) and associated impacts on ground conditions (e.g., cropping conditions, pasture and water availability), as well as the short-term rainfall forecast. Find more remote sensing information here.

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