Key Message Update

Ongoing insecurity reduces food access in Western Bahr el Ghazal and Greater Equatoria

September 2016

September 2016

South Sudan September 2016 Food Security Projections for September

October 2016 - January 2017

South Sudan September 2016 Food Security Projections for October to January

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

Presence countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Remote monitoring
countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

Key Messages

  • Fighting and insecurity continue to disrupt livelihoods and cause displacement in Greater Equatoria and Western Bahr el Ghazal. An estimated 18,000 people in Lainya of Central Equatoria and 76,000 in Wau of Western Bahr el Ghazal remain displaced and persistent insecurity is preventing them from returning to their homes or accessing their farms. With limited access to markets or own production, many displaced households are surviving on wild foods and fish and are expected to be in Emergency (IPC Phase 4).

  • In Northern Bahr el Ghazal, food security has improved slightly with the start of the harvest and increased fishing. However, given that this State is structurally production deficit and the harvest is expected to be below average, many households will remain market dependent. High food prices are likely to prevent many from purchasing adequate food to meet their daily food needs. In Aweil North and Aweil East, Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes persist and it is expected a small number of households are in Catastrophe (IPC Phase 5). A SMART survey conducted by IMC in Aweil North in September reported a GAM (WHZ) prevalence of 28.1 percent, indicative of Emergency (IPC Phase 4), and a CDR of 0.71/10,000/day, indicative of Crisis (IPC Phase 3). 

  • Below-average harvests are expected in most areas of the country. In Greater Upper Nile, although improved security in early 2016 supported increased cultivation compared to 2015, below-average yields are expected in Nasir and Ulang of Upper Nile and in Bor, Twic East, and Pibor of Jonglei, where flooding caused crop damage. Below-average harvests are also expected in Western Bahr el Ghazal and Greater Equatoria due to high levels of ongoing displacement and disruption of agricultural activities.

  • Following price spikes in late July, staple food prices remained extremely high in Juba, Wau, and Awiel in August. However, according to key informant information, prices decreased slightly in late August and early September, due in part to the arrival of harvests and slight increase in trade flows compared to late July. Despite decreases, prices remain higher than in early 2016 and significantly above the five-year average. Due to ongoing macroeconomic instability, low levels of trade, and likely below-average production in several areas, prices are only expected to decline slightly during the harvest.

About FEWS NET

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network is a leading provider of early warning and analysis on food insecurity. Created by USAID in 1985 to help decision-makers plan for humanitarian crises, FEWS NET provides evidence-based analysis on approximately 30 countries. Implementing team members include NASA, NOAA, USDA, USGS, and CHC-UCSB, along with Chemonics International Inc. and Kimetrica.
Learn more About Us.

Link to United States Agency for International Development (USAID)Link to the United States Geological Survey's (USGS) FEWS NET Data PortalLink to U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA)
Link to National Aeronautics and Space Administration's (NASA) Earth ObservatoryLink to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) National Weather Service, Climage Prediction CenterLink to the Climate Hazards Center - UC Santa BarbaraLink to KimetricaLink to Chemonics