Conflict and floods sustain widespread Crisis (IPC Phase 3) and risk of Famine in Nasir

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Widespread Crisis (IPC Phase 3) or worse outcomes are expected in the harvest period through January due to the ongoing impacts of conflict, flooding, a deteriorating economy, and high returnee and refugee presence. In Nasir (Upper Nile) and Fangak (Jonglei), Emergency (IPC Phase 4) is expected with some populations experiencing Catastrophe (IPC Phase 5) in hard-to-reach areas, where acute malnutrition is likely high amid ongoing disease outbreaks. Humanitarian assistance is underway, but access remains restricted by floods and conflict in some areas, particularly in southern Nasir. Meanwhile, Emergency (IPC Phase 4) is expected to persist in additional areas of high concern, including Canal/Pigi (Jonglei); Ulang, Longochuk, and Panyikang (Upper Nile); and Pibor (Greater Pibor Administrative Area [GPAA]). In Adong payam of Baliet (Upper Nile), increased severe outcomes are expected following the mid-November attack in which at least 60 people were killed, over 12,000 displaced, about 5,000 cattle looted, and delivery of basic services disrupted.
Conflict in November continues to displace thousands and disrupt livelihoods, trade flows, and humanitarian access. After a short lull in early November in Upper Nile, the attack in Baliet signals the expansion of highly fatal retaliatory inter-communal conflict and cattle raiding. In Doma and Ying payams of Ulang, tensions remain high amid recent airstrikes and retaliatory cattle raiding that disrupted transport and humanitarian access, according to FEWS NET’s November rapid assessment. Efforts are underway to de-escalate, but the risk of further retaliatory attacks remains high through at least May 2026 given ongoing youth mobilizations.
In Jonglei and GPAA, airstrikes, cattle raids, and violence against civilians in Duk, Bor South, Nyirol, Uror, and Pibor have killed and displaced people, and disrupted livelihoods, trade flows, and market functionality. In Greater Equatoria, multiple clashes between the government and SPLA-IO-NAS joint forces in Torit in November displaced households and disrupted local food supply. Ongoing insecurity in parts of Western Equatoria is likely to continue restricting humanitarian access.
While floodwaters continued to recede in November, levels remain elevated in the Sudd wetlands and along main rivers, exacerbating poor health conditions. As of November 13, severe flooding had affected 1.35 million people across 39 counties in eight states, similar to 2024 impacts. Flood extent was greatest in September (65,480 km²) and subsequently declined in October (57,865 km²) and November (44,098 km²). Inundations are likely to persist through March in areas where floodwaters are not receding as is typical, compounded by sustained high water levels in the Nile River and upstream lakes as of mid-November. This is likely to impede population and trade movements and exacerbate disease outbreaks, particularly in areas with high numbers of displaced persons and exceedingly poor access to water, health, and sanitation services. Cholera is continuing to spread across the country, with at least 250 new cases reported in nine counties in parts of Unity, Warrap, Upper Nile, and Central Equatoria, in the first two weeks of November. However, given the challenges of surveillance in hotspot areas of conflict and flooding, this is expected to be an underestimation.
Conflict- and flood-driven population displacement has continued in November, with most displaced populations lacking adequate access to food and income and facing high levels of disease. Households in many displacement sites, particularly in northern Jonglei and along the Sobat River corridor in Upper Nile, have been unable to return to their homes due to either high floodwaters or continued insecurity. According to the latest available data, over 375,600 remain displaced by flooding. At least 326,000 were newly displaced in 2025 due to fighting as of early November; this figure has likely increased with fresh conflicts by mid-November, particularly in Baliet, Ulang, and Torit. Displaced populations continue to arrive from Sudan and recently from Ethiopia, following reductions in humanitarian assistance and deteriorating conditions in the camps. While the number of arrivals from Sudan has declined since the start of 2025, expanding conflict in Greater Kordofan has caused surges of over 1,000 people per day on several occasions in November, a trend likely to continue. These arrivals are sustaining high humanitarian needs in the hosting counties, particularly in Upper Nile, Unity, and Northern Bahr el Ghazal.
Pasture and livestock body conditions are poor in severely flood- and conflict-affected counties of southeastern Upper Nile, Jonglei, and Unity due to restricted mobility and damaged rangeland resources. Key informants have confirmed poor livestock body conditions as floods have submerged and significantly damaged pastures, corroborated by satellite imagery indicating below-average vegetation health in flood-affected areas of southern and central Unity and northwestern Jonglei. In conflict-affected areas, ongoing retaliatory cattle raids and associated insecurity are restricting mobility and limiting access to pastures. Livestock body conditions are expected to remain below average through at least May 2026 when new pastures rejuvenate.
South Sudan’s poor macroeconomic conditions persist amid the ongoing liquidity crisis and conflict-driven threat to oil revenue, likely deepening the fiscal crisis through at least May 2026. In mid-November, another attack on an oil field in West Kordofan, Sudan (near the South Sudan border), prompted a temporary shutdown of oil facilities, exacerbating the longer-term trend of below-average production. Meanwhile, the currency has depreciated by 35-50 percent compared to the same time last year, at approximately 4,645-5,950 SSP/USD on official and parallel markets in mid-November. The prevailing macroeconomic conditions are likely to remain poor, characterized by high inflation, high cost of living, and SSP depreciation, further eroding household purchasing capacity.
Retail staple food prices are stable or declining in November given ongoing harvests, but remain atypically high due to conflict- and flood-related disruptions to market supply, transport costs, and depreciation. In main markets in Wau, Juba, and Rumbek Center, prices of imported white sorghum per malwa (3.5 kg) are stable, but declined by 15-20 percent in markets of Aweil Center, Rubkona, and Abyei. In Fangak, the price of red sorghum per malwa was 40 percent lower than in October due to food assistance availability. However, prices remain substantially above last year (20-75 percent) and the five-year average (115-160 percent). In conflict- and flood-affected areas, staple food prices remain exceptionally high and rising due to significantly below-average harvests and continued trade flow restrictions. In Ulang, FEWS NET’s November assessment confirmed market supplies are limited, and restocking is intermittent due to multiple checkpoints along the Sobat River and routes to the Ethiopia border.
Despite considerable access barriers, food assistance under WFP’s Famine Response Plan in six counties – Nasir, Ulang, Fangak, Canal/Pigi, Longochuk, and Panyikang – reached nearly 20 percent of the total population in September and October. Access remains difficult in some areas in November: recent violence in Ulang has forced WFP to pause distributions; flooding in Fangak has required identification of alternative sites; and localized insecurity has required ongoing access negotiations, particularly in parts of Panyikang, as well as in Kuerengke, Jikmir, and Mandeng payams of southern Nasir. Recent negotiations paved the way for distributions to begin in the last week of November in most of these hard-to-reach areas including the river distribution sites in southern Nasir. However, data is not yet available to confirm the distributions, and heightened tension along the Sobat River corridor poses ongoing threats to humanitarian operations. In the other counties, available data suggests that, as of late-November, 20-35 percent of county populations had been reached in Longochuk and Fangak; and only 10 percent in Canal/Pigi.
While not the most likely scenario, FEWS NET maintains a risk of Famine (IPC Phase 5) in Nasir through May. There is a credible alternative scenario in which conflict intensifies to levels similar to or worse than early 2025 and fully obstructs ongoing and planned humanitarian assistance, and, converging with slow recession of floodwaters, isolates households from accessing sources of food. If the obstruction of humanitarian assistance and movement restrictions are prolonged, then Famine (IPC Phase 5) would most likely occur – with greatest concern for southern Nasir – given that there are already populations in Catastrophe (IPC Phase 5) and the prevalence of acute malnutrition is projected to surpass the Famine (IPC Phase 5) threshold by May.

Recommended citation: FEWS NET. South Sudan Key Message Update November 2025: Conflict and floods sustain widespread Crisis (IPC Phase 3) and risk of Famine in Nasir, 2025.

This Key Message Update provides a high-level analysis of current acute food insecurity conditions and any changes to FEWS NET's latest projection of acute food insecurity outcomes in the specified geography. Learn more here.