Persistent floods and returnee burden sustain Emergency (IPC Phase 4) or worse outcomes

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While the ongoing main season harvest is partially mitigating the severity of acute food insecurity outcomes in much of South Sudan, Crisis (IPC Phase 3) or worse outcomes are widespread with 14 counties expected to remain in Emergency (IPC Phase 4) during the November to January harvest period. Some households are likely to continue to face Catastrophe (IPC Phase 5) in Malakal of Upper Nile and Abyei Administrative Area, as well as among returnees in transit and in areas with a high burden of returnees. The degree of seasonal improvement in food availability and access is limited by ongoing conflict that disrupts livelihood activities; the prolonged strain of hosting high numbers of returnees amid a sustained influx; persistent flooding and poor sanitation conditions leading to disease outbreaks, including cholera; and a consistently poor and deteriorating economy that is further eroding household purchasing capacity. Food assistance remains a critical lifeline for millions as humanitarian actors transition from a lean season response plan to a flood response plan in the most severely affected areas, with Crisis! (IPC Phase 3!) outcomes anticipated in 10 counties in Unity, Jonglei, and Upper Nile states.
As of November 29, 379,000 people remain displaced and 1.4 million affected by flooding this year in 22 counties and Abyei, with the largest concentration of newly flood-displaced in Fangak (154,000), Akobo (98,000), Rumbek East (93,500), Aweil East (91,000), and Aweil South (85,000). As the rains conclude over unimodal areas of South Sudan, flood extent declined from the approximate 48,000 km² peak observed in early October to about 35,000 km² by the end of November. In the most likely scenario, flood extent is expected to continue to decline given that it is the end of the typical rainy season. However, based on the high lake levels upstream in Uganda, the onset of the late 2024 bimodal rainy season in the region, and historical instances in which a second peak in flood extent can occur around December/January, there a remains a risk of that flood extent may surge once again in the coming months. If this materializes, it would likely displace additional populations, disrupt access to typical food and income sources, and affect commercial and humanitarian flows.
Returnees and refugees fleeing the war in Sudan continue to face severely limited options for accessing food and income, frequently arriving with few if any assets after harrowing journeys. According to official counts, 5,500-7,000 people, on average, crossed at formal border crossings on a weekly basis from August through mid-October; however, formal crossings surged to 9,000-9,500 people in the last week of October and first week of November. It has long been assumed these figures underestimate the true burden of displacement given the porous border, and recent focus group discussions conducted by REACH in parts of Northern Bahr el Ghazal provide additional evidence of the increasing use of informal border crossings to reach South Sudan. The assessment also reiterates the impact on local communities as the capacity of host households to support new arrivals is becoming depleted. In Renk, recent protests by local communities, which temporarily halted food assistance operations, exemplify the strain on local economies and resources. With fewer and fewer options available for support, it is likely that some returnee households will continue to face extreme food consumption deficits indicative of Catastrophe (IPC Phase 5), particularly in high burden and transit areas such as Aweil East, Renk, and Malakal.
Transit sites remain characterized by overcrowding and poor water and sanitation conditions that raise the risk of communicable disease outbreaks, including cholera. The current cholera outbreak is spreading fast: On November 20, 550 suspected cases and 5 deaths due to cholera had been reported; By November 29, the total had risen to 1,178 cases and 13 deaths. Cases have been reported in 17 counties, with the highest caseloads seen in Malakal (56 percent of total cases) and Renk (21 percent). Combined with the persistence of large to extreme food consumption gaps in these areas, acute malnutrition is expected to escalate to within the range of Critical (15-29.9 percent).
Volatile and tense conditions in conflict hotspots remain a key driver of acute food insecurity, with reports of revenge attacks, cattle raiding, and elevated banditry, particularly in Abyei, Greater Tonj of Warrap, and Greater Equatoria and localized areas of Jonglei and Unity. These events continue to interfere with livelihood activities and disrupt trade flows and humanitarian operations in affected areas. In Greater Tonj, humanitarian operations remain suspended following repeated retaliatory attacks and the looting of WFP’s warehouse in October. Despite a peace dialogue between November 15-17, clashes reportedly occurred again between November 19-22. In Abyei, fatal armed clashes occurred again in November and led to the temporary restriction of movement for UN staff, which was lifted by November 17. Intercommunal attacks were also reported in early November in Nyirol and Ayod of Jonglei, temporarily disrupting commercial trade and humanitarian access. In addition, clashes between civilians and the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement-in-Opposition (SPLM-IO) were reported in Unity in mid-November. Meanwhile, in Central Equatoria, an attack by Dinka Bor youth on Murle cattle traders along the Juba-Bor road led to at least 29 deaths, 500 cattle raided, and the closure of the route for 3 days, negatively affecting trade and humanitarian operations. In Western Equatoria, the ongoing tensions between the Azande and Balanda communities marked by targeted attacks and burning of houses are indicative of resurgence of inter-communal violence, likely to displace and disrupt livelihoods.
At the national level, a new round of Kenya-led peace talks between the government and holdout opposition groups is expected to resume December 2, after several delays. The talks originally began in early May but were sidelined in July with the withdrawal of the SPLM-IO. Nevertheless, a shootout in Juba on November 21 at the home of the former head of the intelligence service illustrates the continuation of periodic incidents that are contributing to political tensions and instability. Cross-border security concerns also persist. In Ikotos county of Eastern Equatoria, which sits on the border with Uganda, a cross-border cattle raid was allegedly carried out by Ugandan People’s Defense Force (UPDF) soldiers in mid-November.
Staple food prices have stabilized with the arrival of the new harvests, the associated seasonal reduction in demand, and the recession of flood waters, which is facilitating a relative improvement in trade flows. Nonetheless, prices remain significantly higher than the same time last year and the five-year average. For example, the average price for a malwa (3.5 kg) of sorghum in October 2024 was 90-250 percent higher than the same time last year (October 2023), and 170-480 percent above the five-year average in Juba, Aweil East, Wau, and Pibor markets. In the context of a poor and deteriorating economy, these persistently high prices make market purchases unaffordable and inaccessible for the poorest households, particularly those who have been displaced; those who have lost their harvests or productive assets due to the flooding; and returnees who have few, if any, assets and limited access to income-generating opportunities.
Following the end of the lean season humanitarian food assistance response in September, WFP transitioned to a flood response in the most severely flood-affected areas. As of November 30, WFP reported providing food assistance to 1.2 million flood-affected people in Jonglei, Upper Nile, Unity, Northern Bahr el Ghazal, Greater Pibor Administrative Area (GPAA), and Warrap. Double distributions are planned in hard-to-reach areas in anticipation of scale-down of all assistance in December. Assistance deliveries are anticipated to resume for the 2025 lean season response as early as January in the highest priority areas, with second tier assistance response resuming in March 2025.
While not the most likely scenario, there is a credible risk that Famine (IPC Phase 5) would occur if severe flooding combined with conflict dynamics isolates households from accessing typical food and income sources, as well as emergency food assistance, for a prolonged period of time. Based on historical analyses of flood patterns and the elevated water levels in the Nile River system currently, FEWS NET’s science partners at NOAA and USGS maintain there is a heightened risk of severe flooding through early 2025. Conflict incidents are also expected to periodically occur in the coming months, which will likely continue to displace households and disrupt their access to food. Moreover, already high acute malnutrition levels are expected to rise within the range of Critical (15-29.9 percent) due to ongoing diseases outbreaks, including cholera, especially in areas with a high burden of returnees and poor water and sanitation conditions.¹ In a scenario in which households are isolated from food, it is anticipated that worsening hunger would quickly lead to the further escalation of acute malnutrition and mortality levels. The risk of Famine (IPC Phase 5) is highest in flood- and conflict-prone areas in north-central Unity, Upper Nile, and Jonglei, as well as other low-lying areas and within the Sudd wetlands, particularly those with a high burden of returnees.

Recommended citation: FEWS NET. South Sudan Key Message Update November 2024: Persistent floods and returnee burden sustain Emergency (IPC Phase 4) or worse outcomes, 2024.

In September 2024, the IPC Acute Malnutrition (AMN) technical working group assessed that acute malnutrition levels in Baliet of Upper Nile State would deteriorate from Critical (15-29.9 percent) between October and March 2024 to Extremely Critical (≥30 percent) between April and July 2025. The main drivers of acute malnutrition include elevated morbidity associated with chronic and communicable diseases and poor access to health services. On the basis that sustained access to livestock products, fish and wild foods, and markets is mitigating the size of household food consumption deficits, the IPC Acute Food Insecurity (AFI) technical working group assessed the area to be in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) in the near-term. The area is projected to deteriorate to Emergency (IPC Phase 4) between April and July 2025 in anticipation of declining food availability and access, but the food consumption thresholds for Famine (IPC Phase 5) are not expected to be surpassed in either the most likely or the alternative scenario.

This Key Message Update provides a high-level analysis of current acute food insecurity conditions and any changes to FEWS NET's latest projection of acute food insecurity outcomes in the specified geography. Learn more here.