Key Message Update

Insecurity continues to displace people and limit food access

November 2016

November 2016 - January 2017

South Sudan November 2016 Food Security Projections for November to January

February - May 2017

South Sudan November 2016 Food Security Projections for February to May

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

Presence countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Remote monitoring
countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

Key Messages

  • The number of internally displaced persons reached 1.8 million in mid-November, with the majority of new displacements in Greater Equatoria, Unity, and Western Bahr el Ghazal. In Unity State, an estimated 15,000 newly displaced persons arrived in southern Mayendit between mid-September and mid-October. The evacuation of aid workers in November from southern and central Unity, prompted by fighting between armed forces, has further reduced assistance to those displaced. With limited assistance and minimal harvests, displaced persons are facing Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes. Some could exhaust the capacity to cope during the atypical February to July lean season and be in Catastrophe (IPC Phase 5). 

  • In Northern Bahr el Ghazal, staple food prices have declined to levels seen preceding the July 2016 price spike. With the ongoing harvest and humanitarian assistance, Crisis (IPC Phase 3!) outcomes persist. However, both ongoing crop assessments and an analysis of high resolution imagery of sentinel sites indicate the harvest will be below average. In the absence of humanitarian assistance, during the atypically long February to July lean season, some households may exhaust the capacity to cope and be in Catastrophe (IPC Phase 5).

  • Staple food prices remain atypically high and volatile and the annual inflation rate has risen over 800 percent since October 2015. In Malakal, the price of sorghum increased significantly between September and October, reaching 45 SSP/kg, as fighting near Melut restricted trade flows. Domestic trade flows are likely to remain low and erratic due to ongoing conflict, fuel shortages in late November, and macroeconomic instability. Prices are expected to be highest between February and May, when domestic stocks are exhausted. 

  • In November, humanitarian assistance reached an estimated 52,000 internally displaced persons in Yei Town, 6,000 people in Mayendit, and 3,800 people in Guit. However, ongoing conflict and access challenges have limited the delivery of assistance from July through November to several counties of Greater Equatoria, Western Bahr el Ghazal, and Unity. 

  • Since the cholera outbreak began in June, 3,145 cases and 44 fatalities have been reported. The majority of cases were in Duk, Fangak, Canal, Leer, and Rubkona. Of major concern are Leer and Rubkona where health and nutrition services have further declined following the evacuation of many humanitarian workers. Increased malnutrition and mortality are likely throughout the outlook period in central and southern Unity due to the combined effect of food shortages and increased morbidity.

About FEWS NET

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network is a leading provider of early warning and analysis on food insecurity. Created by USAID in 1985 to help decision-makers plan for humanitarian crises, FEWS NET provides evidence-based analysis on approximately 30 countries. Implementing team members include NASA, NOAA, USDA, USGS, and CHC-UCSB, along with Chemonics International Inc. and Kimetrica.
Learn more About Us.

Link to United States Agency for International Development (USAID)Link to the United States Geological Survey's (USGS) FEWS NET Data PortalLink to U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA)
Link to National Aeronautics and Space Administration's (NASA) Earth ObservatoryLink to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) National Weather Service, Climage Prediction CenterLink to the Climate Hazards Center - UC Santa BarbaraLink to KimetricaLink to Chemonics