Worsening economic conditions amid impending flooding drive widespread Emergency (IPC Phase 4)

Download Report

Humanitarian needs are approaching the seasonal peak in July and August, with widespread Crisis (IPC Phase 3) and Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes in Unity, Upper Nile, Jonglei, Greater Pibor Administrative Area (GPAA), Abyei Administrative Area (Abyei), Warrap, Northern Bahr el Ghazal, Lakes, and parts of Eastern Equatoria, as well as among returnees and the displaced. This is being driven by high and rising staple food prices while income-earning opportunities are declining amid poor macroeconomic conditions, high returnee burden, and continued conflict and insecurity. Of highest concern are households with heavily eroded and extremely limited coping capacity after years of compounding shocks and restricted access to humanitarian assistance. Some households in parts of Pibor of Greater Pibor Administrative Area (GPAA), Duk of Jonglei, and among those displaced and sheltering in areas of transit such as Rubkona of Unity, Renk of Upper Nile, and Aweil East of Northern Bahr el Ghazal are facing Catastrophe (IPC Phase 5) in July.
Incidents of violent conflict have been relatively lower so far in July, though tensions remain high in conflict hotspots. In Greater Upper Nile, armed violence reignited and rapidly intensified in Nasir Town on July 3, displacing at least 30,000 civilians and causing the suspension of humanitarian movements along the Sobat River, which affected distributions in Ulang and Nasir. In Jonglei, localized intercommunal violence, cattle raiding, and road ambushes were reported in Akobo, Ayod, Twic East, Nyirol, and Bor South, as well as in GPAA. In the latter, authorities implemented a ban on civilians carrying firearms in Pibor town as of July 22, citing a rise in revenge attacks, road ambushes, and looting of humanitarian trucks. In Unity, tensions are high in Rubkona and Pariang, following reports of youth mobilization, while cattle raiding and revenge attacks were reported between Panyijiar of Unity and Yirol West of Lakes, and in Rumbek Center of Lakes. In Central Equatoria, a new faction of the National Salvation Front (NAS) has been abducting civilians for forced recruitments, and conducting road ambushes in parts of Yei, Lainya, and Morobo. Ambushes were also reported along the Juba-Jonglei route, while cross-border cattle raids were reported between Turkana and Toposa of Kapoeta East. Altogether, the rise in criminality, road ambushes, and continuing intercommunal violence is disrupting trade and humanitarian flows and interfering with agricultural activities.
The average number of people crossing the border from Sudan daily rose slightly from 1,000 per day in June to over 1,100 per day in July, but remains lower than the peaks seen between October 2023 and January 2024 (1,900-2,200 per day). Notably, the share of Sudanese fleeing Sudan rose from 30 percent of daily arrivals to nearly 40 percent between June and July, driven by an increase in number of Sudanese fleeing new war fronts in Sennar and expansion of fighting in parts of Greater Kordofan. In total, over 770,000 people have arrived since the war began in April 2023. The continuous stream of new arrivals is straining existing basic services and driving already dire humanitarian situation and acute food insecurity in the receiving counties in Upper Nile, Unity and Northern Bahr El Ghazal states.
Despite below-average performance of the first season rains, harvesting and consumption of green maize and groundnut are ongoing in Greater Equatoria bimodal rainfall areas, reducing food consumption gaps for most farming households. FEWS NET’s monitoring confirmed farming households in Magwi, and Torit of Eastern Equatoria; Juba, Yei, Lainya, and Morobo of Central Equatoria; Yambio, Maridi, Ezo, and Tambura of Western Equatoria are consuming green maize and groundnuts. In Ikotos County of Eastern Equatoria, prolonged dry spells and the recent suspected volcanic activity in Isuhak boma have destroyed crops and forced unspecified number of households to migrate to Kenya and Uganda. Given the poor spatial and temporal distribution of first season rains and insecurity-related disruptions to farming activity in some of these areas, first season harvest is likely to be lower than that of last year.
By mid-July, the performance of the June to September main rainfall season had improved following a delayed start. Most areas across the country received 95 to 130 percent of normal rainfall, except in a few areas in Gogrial, Twic of Warrap, and Aweil East of Northern Bahr el Ghazal. As a result, the current crop growth conditions are generally average-to-good across all livelihood zones. Most of the main season crops such as maize and sorghum are currently in early to late vegetative stages of growth in different cropping zones, as confirmed by field monitoring and key informant reports. However, in parts of Western and Northern Bahr el Ghazal, and Warrap, poor and erratic rainfall performance has delayed planting, while key informants also report infestation by Millipeds and Fall Army Worm that has significantly affected crop development, forcing some households to replant.
The South Sudan macroeconomic conditions worsened further, marked by a large fiscal gap and significant depreciation of local currency value against the US Dollar despite the extended IMF-financed Rapid Credit Facility (RCF) program. As of July 25, the official exchange rate has remained stable at 1599 South Sudanese Pounds (SSP)/USD, but the rate on the parallel market has lost an additional 38 percent in value compared to June 2024, trading at 4300 SSP/USD. This represents a 60 and 313 percent deterioration compared to the same period last year on the official and parallel markets, respectively, driven by oil revenue losses and aggravated by spillover effect of the Sudan conflict on displacement, trade flows, and market supply.
Cross border trade of staple foods across the key monitored borders continued to reduce in second quarter of 2024 due to high border fees, high transport costs, deteriorating exchange rate, and illicit taxes. According to FEWS NET’s East Africa trade bulletin for the second quarter, the volumes of maize and sorghum from Uganda to South Sudan were 20 to 35 percent below last quarter, 40 to 45 percent below the same quarter last year, and 90 to 95 percent below the five-year average. In the northern border counties, the low trade flows are further aggravated by very high demand due to the large numbers of arrivals. In Upper Nile, sharply rising sorghum prices has led authorities to temporarily ban export of sorghum from the state. Meanwhile in Rumbek, Aweil Center, and Bor South markets, the retail price of white sorghum in July remained similar to previous month, but was 75 to 100 percent higher than same period last year.
Livestock body and rangeland conditions have improved in pastoral and agropastoral areas due to increased availability of pasture and water resources in rangelands. FEWS NET field monitoring and key informant report livestock body and pasture conditions are generally fair to good in Fashoda, Maiwut of Upper Nile; Duk and Fangak of Jonglei; Leer and Mayendit of Unity; and Torit of Eastern Equatoria. Most herds are currently close to homesteads, providing milk and other products for consumption and income for households who own livestock. Nevertheless, persistent floodwaters, intercommunal conflict and livestock raiding, and poor veterinary services delivery are affecting livestock production across agropastoral and pastoral areas.
The persistence of residual floodwater, increasing runoff water from main season rains under forecasts of La Nina-driven above-average rainfall, and escalating release of water from Lake Victoria in Uganda are expected to contribute to severe flooding in excess of 2020 and 2022 and are elevating the risk of Famine (IPC Phase 5) in flood prone and conflict affected areas of north-central Unity and other low-lying areas and the Sudd wetland. An update from South Sudan hydrological monitoring indicated that the water levels in Nile River have risen to record-high levels for this time of year, 12-13 meters at Nimule and Juba stations. Key informants confirm water levels and flood extents in Sudd wetlands are also increasing and limiting movements, affecting livelihoods, causing displacement, and threatening critical infrastructure including dikes in Rubkona, Leer, Panyijiar, and southern Mayendit in Unity; western parts of Duk and parts of Twic East of Jonglei; and in low-lying areas in Tonj North of Warrap. If severe flooding combined with conflict dynamics isolates households from accessing typical food and income sources or assistance deliveries for a prolonged period of time, then Famine (IPC Phase 5) would occur during the June 2024 to January 2025 projection period. Given the elevated concern for this year’s flooding, the South Sudan’s Council of Ministers on July 14 endorsed the flood response plan that approved 78 million USD for flood preparedness and response to mitigate the anticipated impact on livelihoods, population, and infrastructure.

Recommended citation: FEWS NET. South Sudan Key Message Update July 2024: Worsening economic conditions amid impending flooding drive widespread Emergency (IPC Phase 4), 2024.

This Key Message Update provides a high-level analysis of current acute food insecurity conditions and any changes to FEWS NET's latest projection of acute food insecurity outcomes in the specified geography. Learn more here.