Crisis (IPC Phase 3) and Emergency (IPC Phase 4) persist as the lean season starts early

• Crisis (IPC Phase 3) and Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes persist in all regions of South Sudan in January. It is expected most households who harvested have depleted their stocks this month, three months earlier than was typical in pre-crisis years. As a result, the 2018 lean season has started earlier than normal and food security is expected to further deteriorate through the peak of the lean season in July/August. Given expected very low food access during this time, there remains a risk of Famine (IPC Phase 5) in a worst-case scenario of an extended absence of assistance. Urgent action is needed to end the ongoing conflict and allow for unhindered delivery of humanitarian assistance.

• There remains high concern for households in Greater Baggari, though it is expected many households in this area had access to some harvests and food security has marginally improved. However, it is expected some households in this area lack access to sufficient food and could be in Catastrophe (IPC Phase 5)*. Catastrophe (IPC Phase 5) also remains likely in parts of Nyirol, Leer, and Ayod, where some households did not harvest and ongoing insecurity is limiting access to assistance and movement towards natural food sources.

• Despite the Cessation of Hostilities (COH) agreement signed in late December, armed clashes between Government forces and armed opposition continue in Unity, Central Equatoria, and parts of Western Equatoria. Additionally, tension remains high in parts of Jonglei, Lakes, and Warrap, where inter-communal clashes have occurred, and in central and southern Unity, due to the resurgence of various armed groups and an uptick in cattle raiding. Despite ongoing conflict in many areas, 250 IDPs from Bor PoC voluntarily returned to Fangak, and humanitarian partners supported the relocation of the remaining 562 IDPs in Melut PoC prior to the closure of the camp.  

• Data collection for the Food Security and Nutrition Monitoring System (FSNMS) has been completed in most counties of South Sudan. These data, collected in December and January, provide information on likely food security and nutrition outcomes during the post-harvest period. The South Sudan Technical Working Group will meet in late January/early February and utilize these data, and other recent assessments, to conduct an IPC analysis. This analysis will analyse current food security outcomes and project food security outcomes through July 2018. 

*According to the IPC, a Famine (IPC Phase 5) has occurred when at least 20 percent of households in a given area have an extreme lack of food, the Global Acute Malnutrition (GAM) prevalence, as measured by weight-for-height z-score (WHZ), exceeds 30 percent, and mortality, as measured by the Crude Death Rate (CDR), is greater than 2 per 10,000 per day. Catastrophe (IPC Phase 5) is when a household group has an extreme lack of food and/or other basic needs even with full employment of coping strategies.