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Concurrent shocks drive widespread Emergency (IPC Phase 4) amid worsening floods

Concurrent shocks drive widespread Emergency (IPC Phase 4) amid worsening floods

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  • Key Messages
  • Key Messages
    • Concurrent shocks including a deteriorating economy, soaring prices, high returnee burden, continued conflict and insecurity, and increased flooding are driving high levels of acute food insecurity in South Sudan. In August, 8-9 million people (>65 percent of the population) are in need of food aid amid escalating flooding affecting hundreds of thousands. Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes are prevalent in over half of the counties, mostly located in Unity, Upper Nile, Jonglei, Greater Pibor Administrative Area (GPAA), Abyei Administrative Area (Abyei), Warrap, Northern Bahr El Ghazal, Lakes, and parts of Eastern Equatoria. Amid ongoing humanitarian food distributions in July and August, some households with low asset base and extremely limited coping capacity and restricted access to humanitarian assistance in remote and insecure parts of Pibor of Greater Pibor Administrative Area (GPAA) and Duk of Jonglei, as well as among returnees and refugees – both those newly arrived and those sheltering in areas of transit such as Renk of Upper Nile, Rubkona of Unity, and Aweil East of Northern Bahr el Ghazal – are likely facing Catastrophe (IPC Phase 5) and require urgent assistance. 
    • Since July, rainfall has increased across South Sudan following a slow start, contributing to average to above-average cumulative rainfall as of mid-August across most of the east. This has significantly increased flooding, so far affecting over 470,000 people in 26 counties—mostly in parts of Unity, Jonglei, Warrap, and Northern Bahr el Ghazal—and causing rising displacement, crop damage, livestock diseases, property and infrastructure damage, and increasing the risk of disease outbreaks. For example, recent flooding across Jonglei displaced 3,000 people in Pochalla and Pibor, more than 2,000 in Ayod, and cut off a critical transport road to Twic East; While in Renk of Upper Nile, over 10,000 people were displaced, further compounding on the humanitarian crisis among returnees and refugees living in overcrowded conditions and facing overly-stretched and under-funded response capacity. River levels also remain high, at or surpassing Alert and High thresholds as monitored by the Ministry of Water Resources and Irrigation. The combination of these high river levels, ongoing releases of large volumes of water from Jinja Dam in Uganda, low outflow further north at the Jebel Aulia dam in Sudan, and ongoing above-normal rainfall is expected to lead to severe flooding in September and October, likely extending into November. 
    • Conflict has been generally lower as of mid-August, though the overall security situation remains volatile and unpredictable. Tensions remain high in Upper Nile and northern Jonglei amid continued mobilization of Agwelek forces in the area; meanwhile in Nasir of Upper Nile, the situation remains tense as clashes between SSPDF and armed youth reoccurred in mid-August. Localized inter-communal violence, road ambushes, cattle raiding, and child abductions continue to be reported in Tonj East and Tonj North of Warrap and Nyirol County of Jonglei.  In parts of East and Central Equatoria, road ambushes and abductions of civilians and humanitarian workers by the National Salvation Front (NAS) have also continued. UNMISS reported 12 such cases affecting 134 individuals, six of whom are children. Together, these incidences are disrupting assistance delivery, trade flows, and crop production. On top of that, the stalling of Tumaini Initiative peace talks in Nairobi are likely to reignite political tensions amongst key actors.
    • The number of people fleeing Sudan continues to rise in August, driving up assistance needs among returnees, refugees, and overly burdened host communitiesAmid US-brokered peace talks, fresh attacks in SennarNorth Darfur, and heightened violence in Greater Kordofan have contributed to flight of over 50,000 people into South Sudan in July and August, bringing the total to over 790,000 people since the start of the conflict in mid-April 2023. The majority of people continue to arrive through Renk in Upper Nile (~85%), though increased clashes in West Kordofan of Sudan are driving up arrivals in Panakuach and Rotriak of Unity that are contributing to rising community tensions in these areas. 
    • Most of the main season crops are currently in reproductive to late maturity stages of growth, though this varies across cropping zones. In southern bimodal areas, harvesting and consumption of first-season crops is ongoing in many areas according to FEWS NET monitoring. In Lopit areas of Lofan in Eastern Equatoria, harvesting of short-maturing sorghum crops is also ongoing. In Greater Kapoeta of Eastern Equatoria, an invasion by birds has caused crop losses and forced many farmers to harvest sorghum prematurely to avoid further losses. Meanwhile, planting of second season maize and groundnuts is currently underway. In unimodal areas, the harvesting of maize crops is underway as is typical in some areas, including parts of Rumbek East of Lakes; Nyirol of Jonglei, Maiwut of Upper Nile; and Jebel Boma, Pibor town, Vertheth, and Kongkong payams of Pibor in GPAA which is expected to alleviate the size of food consumption gaps for those with access.
    • Increased availability of water and pasture has improved livestock body conditions and facilitated the return of livestock near to homesteads, improving access to livestock products for those who own animals. However, livestock production continues to face challenges including flooding, conflict, and livestock thefts and diseases. In Pibor County of GPAA and in Northern Bahr el Ghazal, there are reports of rising livestock disease incidences. As such, FAO and the Ministry of Animal Resources are planning to vaccinate 900,000 animals. 
    • The South Sudanese economy continued to deteriorate in August, marked by significant currency depreciation, extremely high food and non-food prices, and a large fiscal gap. This is despite the extension of the IMF-financed Rapid Credit Facility (RCF) program, grants of 95 million USD from the US and 3.19 million USD from Japan, and continued auctions of one million USD in mid-August. On the official market, the South Sudanese Pound (SSP) lost 52 percent of its value between the first and third week of August 2024, trading between 1,800 and 2,800 SSP/USD, and 166 percent of its value since last year. On the parallel market, the rate changed little between July and August, having already deteriorated more rapidly in previous months. Compared to the same time last year, the SSP has depreciated 360 percent on the parallel market. 
    • Imports of staple foods are continuing to decline at a critical time during the lean season. Based on preliminary FEWS NET’s cross-border trade monitoring data for August 2024, the quantities of maize and sorghum from Uganda via Nimule border crossing point were 50-65 percent lower than volumes in July 2024, and 80 percent lower than last year, driven by the sharp currency depreciation, imposition of fees since March, and new taxes since May, including license renewal fees for clearing agents which increased from 100 to up to 7,000 US dollars at the Nimule border crossing. Meanwhile, trade flow from Sudan through Warwar and Gok-Machar border points have remained significantly disrupted due to the conflict and flooding. 
    • The deteriorating macroeconomic conditions, declining trade flows, low local supply, and disruptions to market functioning in areas experiencing heaviest rains and flooding are driving ever higher staple food prices that are increasing unaffordable to mostAccording to price data analysis, sorghum prices per malwa (3.5 kg) in August were 15-40 percent higher than in July in Juba, Aweil Center, Wau, and Rumbek Center markets. Compared to the same time last year and to the five-year average, prices were 200-380 and 350-575 percent higher, respectively. Likewise, fuel prices have also continued to rise. 
    • While August represents the final month of the typical humanitarian lean season response, delays over the last few months due to the taxation issue and localized flooding or conflict have resulted in July assistance being distributed well into August in most targeted areas. Data for August are not yet available; however, distributions in July reached 1.6 million, less than 20 percent of estimated population in need. After the end of the lean season response, WFP plans to provide an additional three months of assistance at 50 percent rations to 1.2 million flood-affected people. 
    • While not the most likely scenario, FEWS NET maintains that Famine (IPC Phase 5) would occur if severe flooding combined with conflict dynamics isolates households from accessing typical food and income sources, including assistance, for a prolonged period of time. Of particular concern are the low-lying and flood- and conflict-prone areas in north-central Unity, Upper Nile, and Jonglei. In addition to WFP’s plans to assist flood-affected people, a flood monitoring task force and humanitarians are implementing a Flood Preparedness and Response Plan to mitigate the anticipated impact on livelihoods, population, and infrastructure, including community relocation campaigns and pre-positioning of assistance. 

    Recommended citation: FEWS NET. South Sudan Key Message Update August 2024: Concurrent shocks drive widespread Emergency (IPC Phase 4) amid worsening floods, 2024.

    This Key Message Update provides a high-level analysis of current acute food insecurity conditions and any changes to FEWS NET's latest projection of acute food insecurity outcomes in the specified geography. Learn more here.

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