Key Message Update

Worsening food insecurity in Juba as renewed conflict disrupts trade flows

July 2016

July - September 2016

South Sudan July 2016 Food Security Projections for July to September

October 2016 - January 2017

South Sudan July 2016 Food Security Projections for October to January

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

Presence countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Remote monitoring
countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

Key Messages

  • Fighting between Government forces and armed opposition fighters in Juba from July 8-10 has damaged infrastructure, disrupted trade, and caused displacement. Trade routes to Juba remain significantly disrupted, reducing commodity flows in to the capital. Prices continue to rise and food shortages are a major concern. Restricted movement and the evacuation of many UN and INGO staff members have reduced operational capacity to respond to food insecurity.

  • Emergency (IPC Phase 4) food security outcomes remain in parts of Unity, Upper Nile, Northern Bahr el Ghazal, and Western Bahr el Ghazal States. Significant food shortages still exist and prices remain exceptionally high. A FEWS NET rapid food security assessment in late June found that a small number of households in Aweil East and Aweil North of Northern Bahr el Ghazal have exhausted their coping strategies and are likely in Catastrophe (IPC Phase 5).*   

  • In Juba, Lainya, and Yei of Central Equatoria, Magwi and Torit of Eastern Equatoria, and Mundri and Maridi of Western Equatoria, conflict and insecurity are disrupting livelihoods and market functioning. Some households in these areas are fleeing to safer locations and others are unable to access their farms. This is likely to negatively impact the ongoing harvest and reduce household food access.  

  • Food prices continue to rise as a result of low supplies, consistent depreciation of the South Sudanese Pound (SSP), and increased insecurity along major trade routes. Between May and June, the price of sorghum in Juba increased 29 percent and is 509 percent above the five-year average. In Aweil, the price of sorghum increased 38 percent over the same time period, as insecurity in Wau is limiting already low trade flows to Northern Bahr el Ghazal. The SSP depreciated 25 percent on the parallel market, to 61.6 SSP/USD, contributing to higher prices. 

*Integrated Food Security Phase Classification, or IPC, describes acute food insecurity at the household level and area level. At the household level, Catastrophe (IPC Phase 5) is described as: “Even with any humanitarian assistance, household group has an extreme lack of food and/or other basic needs even with full employment of coping strategies.” Famine (IPC Phase 5) applies to the area level and is declared when more than 20 percent of households are classified in Catastrophe, the prevalence of GAM exceeds 30 percent, and the Crude Death Rate exceeds 2/10,000/day.

About FEWS NET

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network is a leading provider of early warning and analysis on food insecurity. Created by USAID in 1985 to help decision-makers plan for humanitarian crises, FEWS NET provides evidence-based analysis on approximately 30 countries. Implementing team members include NASA, NOAA, USDA, USGS, and CHC-UCSB, along with Chemonics International Inc. and Kimetrica.
Learn more About Us.

Link to United States Agency for International Development (USAID)Link to the United States Geological Survey's (USGS) FEWS NET Data PortalLink to U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA)
Link to National Aeronautics and Space Administration's (NASA) Earth ObservatoryLink to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) National Weather Service, Climage Prediction CenterLink to the Climate Hazards Center - UC Santa BarbaraLink to KimetricaLink to Chemonics