Food Security Outlook

Crisis persists in Greater Upper Nile, food security to deteriorate in early 2015

October 2014 to July 2015
2014-Q4-1-1-SS-en

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

Presence countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Remote monitoring
countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

Key Messages

  • Harvests are underway country-wide improving household access to food. However, in the conflict-affected states of Jonglei, Upper Nile, and Unity, production deficits of 30 to 50 percent have limited recovery from prolonged food deficits earlier this year, especially among poor and displaced households who rely on sharing through kinship to access food.

  • Nearly 1 million people will remain in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) and Emergency (IPC Phase 4) in the Greater Upper Nile region during the harvest period from October to December.

  • Escalation of conflict in early 2015 is expected to cause new, large-scale displacement, prevent market recovery, and limit access to food and income sources. An early onset of the lean season, and significant reductions in food and income sources will result in growing food gaps from January to July. Very poor households will likely deplete assets in order to offset food gaps.

  • A rapid deterioration in food security outcomes is expected starting in early 2015 and will worsen from April to July when an estimated 40 percent of the population in Greater Upper Nile will face significant food consumption deficits. During this period, acute food insecurity will intensify and Emergency (IPC Phase 4) is expected in much of Unity, central Jonglei, and southern Upper Nile.

About Scenario Development

To project food security outcomes, FEWS NET develops a set of assumptions about likely events, their effects, and the probable responses of various actors. FEWS NET analyzes these assumptions in the context of current conditions and local livelihoods to arrive at a most likely scenario for the coming eight months. Learn more here.

About FEWS NET

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network is a leading provider of early warning and analysis on food insecurity. Created by USAID in 1985 to help decision-makers plan for humanitarian crises, FEWS NET provides evidence-based analysis on some 28 countries. Implementing team members include NASA, NOAA, USDA, and USGS, along with Chemonics International Inc. and Kimetrica. Read more about our work.

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