Food Security Outlook through March 2014

• Overall, an average harvest is expected for the 2013/2014 season in South Sudan, though crop performance varies significantly between livelihood zones. An above-average harvest is likely in the Greenbelt, while below-average crop production is expected in the flood plains livelihood zones. 

• In Pibor County (Jonglei State), civil insecurity continues to limit access to markets, livestock, and humanitarian assistance.  An estimated 100,000 people, or 70 percent of the population, are displaced and face significant food consumption gaps. Crisis (IPC Phase 3) food insecurity is expected until at least December 2013.  During the January to March period, food security is likely to improve to Stressed (IPC Phase 2) levels given expectations for improved humanitarian assistance, and access to game meat and fish.

• In Abyei, households will continue to rely on markets and humanitarian assistance to meet basic food needs, and will face Stressed food insecurity throughout the scenario period. The results of the October 2013 referendum are not likely to be recognized by the governments of Sudan and South, though tensions in the areas will likely increase.

• As the main harvest continues through February, most households are likely to have Minimal (IPC Phase 1) levels of food insecurity through March. However, food insecurity for households in flood-affected areas of Jonglei, Unity, Lakes and Warrap states is expected to deteriorate from Minimal to Stressed levels from January to March. 

Current Situation

Food availability in most markets across the country is good due to ongoing harvests of maize, sorghum, groundnuts, cassava, and various vegetables.  Prices of staple foods have started to decline, although they remain above the five-year average in all markets. Substantial price reductions have been observed in the bimodal areas of greater Equatoria, where the second season harvest is expected to be very good. Recent cross-border trade flows from Sudan have declined moderately compared to April and May 2013 due to the tensions along the border.  For example, the volume of cereal flows from Sudan to South Sudan through Warawar declined by 15 percent in September (1,115 MT) compared to April this year (1,311 MT). Flows through Gokmachar declined nearly 100 percent (from 208.2 MT down to 0.0405 MT) over the same period.  Although cross-border trade flows are reduced, delayed seasonal flooding (which started toward the end of August, rather than early August) has allowed for prepositioning of essential staples in advance by traders.

Although oil flows to Sudan resumed in April 2013, the austerity budget continues.  South Sudan introduced the austerity budget due to the declining macroeconomic situation following the stoppage of oil flows in 2012. This prompted a devaluation in the South Sudan pound and resulted in an unprecedented increase in inflation rates. According to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), the consumer price index (CPI) decreased by 7.2 percent between September 2012 and September 2013. The reduction in the CPI is mainly driven by food prices.

Most people in Jonglei State’s Pibor County remain displaced due to ongoing insecurity. Of the estimated 100,000 people displaced from Pibor County, humanitarian agencies have registered about 76,000 IDPs in need of assistance within the county. On October 20, 2013, violent conflict erupted again, when armed groups attacked Twic County, killing over 40 people, and looting nearly 50,000 heads of cattle.  

Flooding in September and early October affected nearly 150,000 people, mostly in the flood-prone areas of Warrap, Unity, Upper Nile, and Northern Bahr el Ghazal states. However, flood levels are not significantly different from normal and the number of people affected to date is less than in 2012.

Food security outcomes have improved across the country as a result of the ongoing main harvest; Minimal (IPC Phase 1) food insecurity is present in most parts of the country.  However, Pibor county of Jonglei State faces Crisis (IPC Phase 3) levels of food insecurity due to the impacts of conflict and extensive displacement. In Abyei, humanitarian assistance continues to maintain Stressed levels of food insecurity (IPC Phase 2!). In parts of Jonglei, Warrap, Unity and Lakes, Stressed (IPC Phase 2) food insecurity persists due to a combination of the impacts of floods in 2012 and erratic rains in 2013, intertribal conflicts, and high prices.

National Assumptions

From October 2013 to March 2014, the projected food security outcomes are based on the following key assumptions at the national level:

• Harvest: At the national level, a near-average harvest (650,000 – 700,000 MT) of cereals is expected, though crop performance varies significantly between livelihood zones. An above-average harvest is likely in the Greenbelt, while below-average crop production is expected in the Flood Plains livelihood zones. In the Eastern Flood Plain, cultivation and crop production were impacted by insecurity and erratic rains. In the Western flood plains, increased rains in August through October resulted in flooding which is likely to reduce yields of the long-maturing sorghum.
• Macroeconomic situation: The macroeconomic situation is likely to improve as the oil continues to flow to Sudan for refinement, though the current austerity budget is likely to continue. Labor migration to Sudan from the northern states will be moderate and above last year’s levels, though below average. It is unlikely that migration will reach pre-separation levels due to insecurity, particularly around South Kordofan and Blue Nile states in Sudan.
• Relations with Sudan: Sudan and South Sudan agreed in October 2013 to normalize relations and resume cross-border trade and population movements. This is likely to increase commodity flows into South Sudan, particularly during the second half of the scenario period when road access improves.  However, trade with Sudan is expected to be largely informal, and volumes are likely to be closer to 2012 levels and not pre-separation levels.
• Abyei: In late October 2013, a unilateral referendum was conducted in Abyei by the local community without the support of the governments of Sudan and South Sudan and the African Union.  The results of the referendum are not likely to be recognized by the two governments and the international community. FEWS NET assumes that economic cooperation related to oil exports and cross-border trade between the two countries is likely to be maintained during the scenario period. However, the unilateral referendum conducted by the local community is likely to heighten tensions between the Messeriya cattle herders of West Kordofan and the Dinka Ngok of Abyei. The Messeriya cattle herders are expected to begin their dry-seasonal movement for grazing in Abyei area in November.  
• Prices: Food prices are expected to continue to decline as the main harvest continues through January.  Despite the trade agreement with Sudan, most commodities in the states bordering Sudan will continue to be transported from Uganda via Juba. Prices are, therefore, expected to remain significantly above average given the high transport costs.

Most Likely Food Security Outcomes

Food security outcomes are expected to improve in most areas during the October to January period, with Minimal (IPC Phase 1) acute food insecurity, though food security will deteriorate in many areas during the January to March period.  Parts of Jonglei, Unity, Lakes and Warrap states will experience Stressed levels of food insecurity from January to March. Beginning in January parts of these states that experienced severe flooding, cattle raids, and high prices due to a reduced harvest will face Stressed food insecurity. Insecurity due to cattle raids normally increases during the dry season when livestock move to the dry season grazing areas. This is likely to impact food security of poor households.

In Abyei, below-average production is expected as most of the population did not cultivate. Households will continue to rely on markets and humanitarian assistance to meet basic food needs. In addition, income through labor migration and sales of firewood and charcoal will be undermined by insecurity. With the expected food assistance, households in Abyei will face Stressed (IPC Phase 2) levels throughout the scenario period.

Crisis (IPC Phase 3) levels of food insecurity will continue through December in Pibor County. More intermittent clashes are possible, leading to further displacement and disruption of markets and livelihoods. Households are expected to face consumption deficits, particularly during the October to December period, despite harvests. However, access to hunting and fishing will increase next year, and humanitarian assistance is expected to improve during the January to March period, bringing food security to Stressed levels from January to March.

Pibor County (Jonglei State)

Current Situation

Most people in Pibor County remain displaced in isolated areas with limited access to basic services. Concentrations of IDPs are located in Labrab, Dorein, Pibor, and Gumuruk. The county experienced multiple shocks in the past two years, beginning with the displacement of 60,000 people from various parts of the county in January 2012 as a result of inter-ethnic fighting.  More displacement occurred when the government staged a disarmament process in Jonglei state in March, mostly targeting Pibor. In addition to the inter-ethnic clashes, intensified fighting between the national armed forces and forces belonging to the rebel leader David Yau Yau in Pibor beginning in March 2013 has resulted in extensive loss of lives and livelihoods. An estimated 100,000 people (nearly 70 percent of the population) were displaced into the bush with no access to food and basic services for months, before the government allowed humanitarian access following prolonged negotiations.  Cattle raiding and reprisal attacks continued, with an incident in July in Gumuruk that affected 27,000 people.

Humanitarian agencies distributed 15-day food rations to IDPs in August in Labrab, Dorein, Pibor and Gumuruk. Another round of distributions commenced in Labrab in September, and the second round distributions are expected to continue in other locations.

Since insecurity began, market access has been significantly disrupted, leaving the vast majority of the population without access to staple foods. Markets in Pibor and Gumuruk towns are open following improvement in the security situation, but there are limited quantities of food. Prices are high compared to Bor, which normally supplies the markets. For example, in Pibor town, sorghum costs 8.57 SSP per kilogram, compared to 5.71 SSP/kg in Bor.  IDPs are unable to access these markets for fear of being targeted as belonging to the Yau Yau movement. Although conditions of roads linking Pibor to source markets are poor due to seasonal heavy rains, this year insecurity is the primary deterrent to market access. Some traders have been forced to airlift some commodities, with high costs passed on to consumers, though volumes are low.

Displacement has significantly reduced income among the IDPs. Without access to Pibor and the main market where households traditionally sell livestock, charcoal, firewood, and grass, IDPs have significantly reduced income levels. There is also low demand for livestock in the areas of displacement. As a result, prices are very low in these areas compared to Pibor market. In Dorein, for instance, bull prices range between 500 to 700 SSP, compared to 1,500 SSP in Pibor. Households relying on the sale of firewood, charcoal and grass are particularly impacted given no demand for these items in the areas of displacement.

In the pastoral area of Pibor, dry conditions were observed earlier in the season and rainfall distribution was erratic over the season. Although the return of livestock was delayed by the late start of season, a relative increase in rainfall in August and September improved livestock conditions and milk productivity. Livestock have moved to dry season grazing areas earlier than normal to avoid areas of insecurity, which reduced access to livestock products including meat, milk, and blood among populations (mostly women and children) without livestock.

Households are relying heavily on wild foods to cope with food shortages. A recent FEWS NET assessment mission in Dorein noted the significance of wild foods during times of hardship. As humanitarian assistance was meant to last for 15 days only, wild foods have continued to play a key role as a food source for recipients. However, wild foods are reportedly less plentiful than normal due to poor rains.

Access to fish improved in August with increased rainfall. While fish availability improved, poor households cited lack of access to fishing gear as a constraint. However, fish availability is evident by the low price of fish.

Results of the Pre-harvest SMART survey conducted in Akobo, Ayod, Uror, and Nyirol in Jonglei state from January – June 2013 indicated a GAM prevalence of 24 percent and a SAM prevalence of 5.75 percent. Due to the repeated displacement and lack of access to services and markets, malnutrition rates in Pibor County are assumed to be higher than the state average. Poor water, sanitation and hygiene, and food insecurity are the contributing factors to child malnutrition in these areas. Diseases are also major cause of malnutrition among displaced children. 

Given reduced food consumption levels and impacts of displacement on livelihoods, households in these areas face Crisis (IPC Phase 3) food insecurity. The community from Upper Boma is most severely impacted by the displacement, compared to their pastoral counterparts, as they are predominantly subsistence farmers.  As these farmers typically depend on own production as a major source of food, and this year were not able to cultivate and do not have access to livestock, the Upper Boma community is particularly impacted.

Assumptions for Pibor County

• Conflict and insecurity are expected to hamper livelihood activities throughout the scenario period, significantly reducing income. Staple foods obtained through direct exchange or purchased from livestock sale normally account for 50 percent of households’ total energy requirement. Given the extent of the disruption in this activity, it is highly unlikely that households will trade livestock for food. Therefore, poor households will fish, collect wild food, and hunt game meat but will not have access to the usual markets, mostly in Pibor and Bor towns. Fish availability is expected to decline earlier than normal because of below average rainfall in the arid areas of Pibor. Low catches coupled with lack of markets are likely to reduce income from fish sales significantly during the January to March period.
• Milk availability will significantly decline during the scenario period, due to early movement to dry season grazing for security reasons.  With a concentration of large numbers of livestock in smaller areas, pasture conditions are expected to deteriorate faster than normal.
• Food assistance is expected to continue to improve food access for IDPs during the scenario period. The latest humanitarian reports indicate that about 76,000 people have registered to receive assistance in Pibor County. WFP will provide general food distributions, while other agencies will provide non food items such as plastic sheets and water purification tablets. The success of interventions will depend on the security situation. However, with the current status quo, humanitarian access is likely to increase during the January to March period.
• The current attempt by Church leaders, is expected to bring the government and the Yau Yau movement to the negotiation table early next year. Any agreement or permanent cease fire between the two sides is likely to improve the security situation and restore livelihood activities of the community affected by the conflict. Although no deal is expected before the end of the year, it is likely that the initiative will maintain calm in the area. Households’ access to markets will also improve and trade will resume as normal improving food access and consumption among poor households. This will also improve humanitarian access and access to services such as health and education.

Most Likely Food Security Outcomes in Pibor County

Livestock products and own crop production, which normally contribute substantially to food sources during the October-December period, will not be available this year. The situation will be worse during this period compared to January – March, when access to game meat, fish, and humanitarian assistance will increase, resulting in improved food consumption.

Poor households are expected to face Crisis (IPC Phase 3) levels of food insecurity during the October to December period. With lack of access to markets, limited humanitarian assistance, reduced access to livestock and livestock products, and limited access to wild foods due to insecurity, poor households are expected to face significant food consumption gaps during this period.

During the January to March period, however, increased availability of game meat and fish will improve food security levels. 

The current initiative to broker peace between the government and rebels is also expected to improve the security situation during the January – March period. Food assistance will maintain the food security of poor households at Stressed (IPC Phase 2!) levels.

ABYEI AREA

Current Situation

IDPs continue to return to the area, amidst deteriorating food security conditions. In late October 2013, a unilateral referendum was conducted in Abyei by the local community without the support of the governments of Sudan and South Sudan and the African Union.  The International Organization for Migration verification team confirmed that 16,080 people returned to 66 villages near or north of Kiir River between July 2012 and July 2013. Another 10,000 returnees have settled in areas south of Kiir River, where there is relative security, over the same period. Food security conditions are precarious as households have very limited livelihood options. An estimated 5,100 IDPs have returned to Abyei from September 2013; of this population, 2,300 people are in Abyei town.  There are currently a total of 81,000 IDPs in Abyei area, including recent returnees. Insecurity continues, mainly in the northern parts of Abyei where Messeriya Nomads currently graze their livestock reducing livelihood activities in those areas.

Most of the Abyei population have not cultivated for more than two consecutive agricultural seasons. Own crop production contributes nearly 20 percent of total annual food sources and over 70 percent of the Abyei population did not cultivate during the 2013 agricultural season. Inadequate agricultural production since 2011 and limited market supply have reduced food access for the majority of the population in Abyei. The presence of Meseriya north of Abyei has increased tensions among the IDPs and limited access to firewood, charcoal, and game hunting.

Labor migration to Sudan was restricted due to continued insecurity. Sorghum obtained from the annual migration for labor normally contributes to about 3-7 percent of households’ minimum annual dietary energy requirement.

Food prices are high in Abyei due to increased transaction costs from the southern border to Abyei area. Anniet market is supplied mainly by goods from the southern parts through Kuajok. Staple foods are scarce in Abyei market. As a result, prices are higher in Abyei than in Anniet market. Although prices are high compared to average, they are relatively stable. While the ongoing harvest of short maturing sorghum and other crops are not expected to contribute significantly to market supply, they are likely to stabilize prices. The monthly food assistance rations are also expected to contribute to price stability in the area. The presence of food aid sorghum on the markets suggests that some households sell part of their foods in order to purchase other preferred commodities such as wheat flour. Since commodities from Sudan remain restricted, sorghum in these markets comes from the East African countries, notably Uganda via Juba and Kuajok. One kilogram of wheat flour costing 8 SSP in Kuajok costs 8.4 SSP in Abyei.

Income sources have declined as a result of the insecurity. Sales of firewood and charcoal have decreased due to insecurity. Insecurity has also reduced fishing activities and access to wild foods. Fishing, collection of wild foods and firewood and hunting are restricted in areas south of River Kiir. For poor households, fish and wild foods contribute nearly 40 percent of annual household food requirements in a typical year.

Assumptions for Abyei

• Referendum: The results of the October 2013 referendum are not likely to be recognized by the two governments and the international community. FEWS NET assumes that economic cooperation related to oil exports and cross-border trade between the two countries is likely to be maintained during the scenario period. However, the unilateral referendum conducted by the local community is likely to heighten tensions between the Messeriya cattle herders of West Kordofan and the Dinka Ngok of Abyei. If the referendum conducted by the Ngok community claims that Abyei belongs to South Sudan, this might trigger conflict and lead to displacement of returnees from Abyei to Bahr el Ghazal and Warap in South Sudan. The Messeriya cattle herders are expected to begin their dry-seasonal movement for grazing in Abyei area in November.  
• Market supplies: Improved road conditions during the dry season will enable traders to transport goods from the southern parts of the country to Abyei. As a result, market supplies from neighboring states through Kuajok will increase food availability in the Abyei market and help stabilize prices, although at above-average levels.
• Access to milk and livestock product will decline as livestock migrate to dry season grazing areas in January. Livestock sales are also expected to increase from January through the lean season in April to July period. Availability of milk and milk products will decrease throughout the scenario period.
• Labour migration is not likely to resume until March 2014, due to the mounting tensions over the referendum. Poor households’ income obtained through migration to Sudan and cereals brought back in kind will not be available.

Most Likely Food Security Outcomes in Abyei

Poor households in Abyei will rely mostly on food assistance as the main food source. For the small percentage of households who managed to cultivate, the ongoing harvest in Agok and the neighboring areas will reduce reliance on markets and improve consumption at least until December/January. Although households expand consumption of wild foods and sale of firewood and charcoal during times of shocks, insecurity will restrict access to these foods during the scenario period. Humanitarian organizations will continue providing food to the returnees to Abyei IDPs and those still outside of Abyei area, maintaining Stressed levels (IPC Phase 2) throughout the scenario period.

Pibor County (Jonglei State)

Current Situation

Most people in Pibor County remain displaced in isolated areas with limited access to basic services. Concentrations of IDPs are located in Labrab, Dorein, Pibor, and Gumuruk. The county experienced multiple shocks in the past two years, beginning with the displacement of 60,000 people from various parts of the county in January 2012 as a result of inter-ethnic fighting.  More displacement occurred when the government staged a disarmament process in Jonglei state in March, mostly targeting Pibor. In addition to the inter-ethnic clashes, intensified fighting between the national armed forces and forces belonging to the rebel leader David Yau Yau in Pibor beginning in March 2013 has resulted in extensive loss of lives and livelihoods. An estimated 100,000 people (nearly 70 percent of the population) were displaced into the bush with no access to food and basic services for months, before the government allowed humanitarian access following prolonged negotiations.  Cattle raiding and reprisal attacks continued, with an incident in July in Gumuruk that affected 27,000 people.

Humanitarian agencies distributed 15-day food rations to IDPs in August in Labrab, Dorein, Pibor and Gumuruk. Another round of distributions commenced in Labrab in September, and the second round distributions are expected to continue in other locations.

Since insecurity began, market access has been significantly disrupted, leaving the vast majority of the population without access to staple foods. Markets in Pibor and Gumuruk towns are open following improvement in the security situation, but there are limited quantities of food. Prices are high compared to Bor, which normally supplies the markets. For example, in Pibor town, sorghum costs 8.57 SSP per kilogram, compared to 5.71 SSP/kg in Bor.  IDPs are unable to access these markets for fear of being targeted as belonging to the Yau Yau movement. Although conditions of roads linking Pibor to source markets are poor due to seasonal heavy rains, this year insecurity is the primary deterrent to market access. Some traders have been forced to airlift some commodities, with high costs passed on to consumers, though volumes are low.

Displacement has significantly reduced income among the IDPs. Without access to Pibor and the main market where households traditionally sell livestock, charcoal, firewood, and grass, IDPs have significantly reduced income levels. There is also low demand for livestock in the areas of displacement. As a result, prices are very low in these areas compared to Pibor market. In Dorein, for instance, bull prices range between 500 to 700 SSP, compared to 1,500 SSP in Pibor. Households relying on the sale of firewood, charcoal and grass are particularly impacted given no demand for these items in the areas of displacement.

In the pastoral area of Pibor, dry conditions were observed earlier in the season and rainfall distribution was erratic over the season. Although the return of livestock was delayed by the late start of season, a relative increase in rainfall in August and September improved livestock conditions and milk productivity. Livestock have moved to dry season grazing areas earlier than normal to avoid areas of insecurity, which reduced access to livestock products including meat, milk, and blood among populations (mostly women and children) without livestock.

Households are relying heavily on wild foods to cope with food shortages. A recent FEWS NET assessment mission in Dorein noted the significance of wild foods during times of hardship. As humanitarian assistance was meant to last for 15 days only, wild foods have continued to play a key role as a food source for recipients. However, wild foods are reportedly less plentiful than normal due to poor rains.

Access to fish improved in August with increased rainfall. While fish availability improved, poor households cited lack of access to fishing gear as a constraint. However, fish availability is evident by the low price of fish.

Results of the Pre-harvest SMART survey conducted in Akobo, Ayod, Uror, and Nyirol in Jonglei state from January – June 2013 indicated a GAM prevalence of 24 percent and a SAM prevalence of 5.75 percent. Due to the repeated displacement and lack of access to services and markets, malnutrition rates in Pibor County are assumed to be higher than the state average. Poor water, sanitation and hygiene, and food insecurity are the contributing factors to child malnutrition in these areas. Diseases are also major cause of malnutrition among displaced children. 

Given reduced food consumption levels and impacts of displacement on livelihoods, households in these areas face Crisis (IPC Phase 3) food insecurity. The community from Upper Boma is most severely impacted by the displacement, compared to their pastoral counterparts, as they are predominantly subsistence farmers.  As these farmers typically depend on own production as a major source of food, and this year were not able to cultivate and do not have access to livestock, the Upper Boma community is particularly impacted.

Assumptions for Pibor County

• Conflict and insecurity are expected to hamper livelihood activities throughout the scenario period, significantly reducing income. Staple foods obtained through direct exchange or purchased from livestock sale normally account for 50 percent of households’ total energy requirement. Given the extent of the disruption in this activity, it is highly unlikely that households will trade livestock for food. Therefore, poor households will fish, collect wild food, and hunt game meat but will not have access to the usual markets, mostly in Pibor and Bor towns. Fish availability is expected to decline earlier than normal because of below average rainfall in the arid areas of Pibor. Low catches coupled with lack of markets are likely to reduce income from fish sales significantly during the January to March period.
• Milk availability will significantly decline during the scenario period, due to early movement to dry season grazing for security reasons.  With a concentration of large numbers of livestock in smaller areas, pasture conditions are expected to deteriorate faster than normal.
• Food assistance is expected to continue to improve food access for IDPs during the scenario period. The latest humanitarian reports indicate that about 76,000 people have registered to receive assistance in Pibor County. WFP will provide general food distributions, while other agencies will provide non food items such as plastic sheets and water purification tablets. The success of interventions will depend on the security situation. However, with the current status quo, humanitarian access is likely to increase during the January to March period.
• The current attempt by Church leaders, is expected to bring the government and the Yau Yau movement to the negotiation table early next year. Any agreement or permanent cease fire between the two sides is likely to improve the security situation and restore livelihood activities of the community affected by the conflict. Although no deal is expected before the end of the year, it is likely that the initiative will maintain calm in the area. Households’ access to markets will also improve and trade will resume as normal improving food access and consumption among poor households. This will also improve humanitarian access and access to services such as health and education.

Most Likely Food Security Outcomes in Pibor County

Livestock products and own crop production, which normally contribute substantially to food sources during the October-December period, will not be available this year. The situation will be worse during this period compared to January – March, when access to game meat, fish, and humanitarian assistance will increase, resulting in improved food consumption.

Poor households are expected to face Crisis (IPC Phase 3) levels of food insecurity during the October to December period. With lack of access to markets, limited humanitarian assistance, reduced access to livestock and livestock products, and limited access to wild foods due to insecurity, poor households are expected to face significant food consumption gaps during this period.

During the January to March period, however, increased availability of game meat and fish will improve food security levels. 

The current initiative to broker peace between the government and rebels is also expected to improve the security situation during the January – March period. Food assistance will maintain the food security of poor households at Stressed (IPC Phase 2!) levels.

ABYEI AREA

Current Situation

IDPs continue to return to the area, amidst deteriorating food security conditions. In late October 2013, a unilateral referendum was conducted in Abyei by the local community without the support of the governments of Sudan and South Sudan and the African Union.  The International Organization for Migration verification team confirmed that 16,080 people returned to 66 villages near or north of Kiir River between July 2012 and July 2013. Another 10,000 returnees have settled in areas south of Kiir River, where there is relative security, over the same period. Food security conditions are precarious as households have very limited livelihood options. An estimated 5,100 IDPs have returned to Abyei from September 2013; of this population, 2,300 people are in Abyei town.  There are currently a total of 81,000 IDPs in Abyei area, including recent returnees. Insecurity continues, mainly in the northern parts of Abyei where Messeriya Nomads currently graze their livestock reducing livelihood activities in those areas.

Most of the Abyei population have not cultivated for more than two consecutive agricultural seasons. Own crop production contributes nearly 20 percent of total annual food sources and over 70 percent of the Abyei population did not cultivate during the 2013 agricultural season. Inadequate agricultural production since 2011 and limited market supply have reduced food access for the majority of the population in Abyei. The presence of Meseriya north of Abyei has increased tensions among the IDPs and limited access to firewood, charcoal, and game hunting.

Labor migration to Sudan was restricted due to continued insecurity. Sorghum obtained from the annual migration for labor normally contributes to about 3-7 percent of households’ minimum annual dietary energy requirement.

Food prices are high in Abyei due to increased transaction costs from the southern border to Abyei area. Anniet market is supplied mainly by goods from the southern parts through Kuajok. Staple foods are scarce in Abyei market. As a result, prices are higher in Abyei than in Anniet market. Although prices are high compared to average, they are relatively stable. While the ongoing harvest of short maturing sorghum and other crops are not expected to contribute significantly to market supply, they are likely to stabilize prices. The monthly food assistance rations are also expected to contribute to price stability in the area. The presence of food aid sorghum on the markets suggests that some households sell part of their foods in order to purchase other preferred commodities such as wheat flour. Since commodities from Sudan remain restricted, sorghum in these markets comes from the East African countries, notably Uganda via Juba and Kuajok. One kilogram of wheat flour costing 8 SSP in Kuajok costs 8.4 SSP in Abyei.

Income sources have declined as a result of the insecurity. Sales of firewood and charcoal have decreased due to insecurity. Insecurity has also reduced fishing activities and access to wild foods. Fishing, collection of wild foods and firewood and hunting are restricted in areas south of River Kiir. For poor households, fish and wild foods contribute nearly 40 percent of annual household food requirements in a typical year.

Assumptions for Abyei

• Referendum: The results of the October 2013 referendum are not likely to be recognized by the two governments and the international community. FEWS NET assumes that economic cooperation related to oil exports and cross-border trade between the two countries is likely to be maintained during the scenario period. However, the unilateral referendum conducted by the local community is likely to heighten tensions between the Messeriya cattle herders of West Kordofan and the Dinka Ngok of Abyei. If the referendum conducted by the Ngok community claims that Abyei belongs to South Sudan, this might trigger conflict and lead to displacement of returnees from Abyei to Bahr el Ghazal and Warap in South Sudan. The Messeriya cattle herders are expected to begin their dry-seasonal movement for grazing in Abyei area in November.  
• Market supplies: Improved road conditions during the dry season will enable traders to transport goods from the southern parts of the country to Abyei. As a result, market supplies from neighboring states through Kuajok will increase food availability in the Abyei market and help stabilize prices, although at above-average levels.
• Access to milk and livestock product will decline as livestock migrate to dry season grazing areas in January. Livestock sales are also expected to increase from January through the lean season in April to July period. Availability of milk and milk products will decrease throughout the scenario period.
• Labour migration is not likely to resume until March 2014, due to the mounting tensions over the referendum. Poor households’ income obtained through migration to Sudan and cereals brought back in kind will not be available.

Most Likely Food Security Outcomes in Abyei

Poor households in Abyei will rely mostly on food assistance as the main food source. For the small percentage of households who managed to cultivate, the ongoing harvest in Agok and the neighboring areas will reduce reliance on markets and improve consumption at least until December/January. Although households expand consumption of wild foods and sale of firewood and charcoal during times of shocks, insecurity will restrict access to these foods during the scenario period. Humanitarian organizations will continue providing food to the returnees to Abyei IDPs and those still outside of Abyei area, maintaining Stressed levels (IPC Phase 2) throughout the scenario period.