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Food security outcomes will continue to improve until January

  • Food Security Outlook Update
  • South Sudan
  • September 2013
Food security outcomes will continue to improve until January

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  • Key Messages
  • Current Situation
  • Updated Assumptions
  • Projected Outlook through December 2013
  • Key Messages
    • Food security outcomes will improve in South Sudan from October as the main harvest starts. In Pibor, however, the situation will remain at Crisis (IPC Phase 3!) at least until December despite the harvest due to displacement and disrupted livelihoods. 

    • Successful negotiations between Sudan and South Sudan resulted in a decision to continue the oil flow through Sudan. The current macro-economic situation is likely to improve and reduce inflation levels.


    Current Situation
    • Over 71,000 of the estimated 100,000 displaced people in Pibor have received food and non-food assistance as of September 8th, as air-lifts and registration continue. Joint interagency assessments conducted South of Gumruk along the Lotilla River and north of Pibor along the Pibor River found that most of the IDPs affected by the recent fighting in July were displaced at least four times. Many reported having lost much of their livestock. The interruption of livelihoods, markets, and social services due to conflict continues to result in significant humanitarian needs among the IDPs in Pibor County.
    • rrap Stateraion this group.ve inpacted n of basic servicesunty. a river north of Pibor .Heavy rains in August and September caused flooding in Jonglei and Upper Nile with Warrap State being the most affected. Over 61,000 flood-affected people have been identified to be in need of humanitarian assistance. Of these, about 17,300 flood-affected people are in Warrap state. People and livestock in flood-affected areas may face above-average risk of disease. The office of the president of the Republic of South Sudan pledged SSP 7 million in humanitarian assistance for flood-affected areas. Nonetheless, the scale of flood damage is below average nationally.
    • Staple food prices remained relatively stable in most key markets of South Sudan. Cereal prices are generally lower than last year, when poor 2011/12 production, the conflict, the oil shutdown, and above-average floods contributed to high prices.
    • Bimodal areas of the Greenbelt, hills and mountains and Iron stone plateau have had average to above-average first-season harvests, while the main harvest for the unimodal areas is expected in October. Improved food security outcomes are expected with the onset of the main harvest in October.

    Updated Assumptions

    Below are updates to assumptions outlined in July Outlook report through December 2013. If not noted otherwise, the assumptions noted in the July Outlook remain valid.

    • Average to above-average rainfall totals are expected from September to December. This suggests an average end to the season in the unimodal areas of the north, including sufficient rainfall to enable late-planted crops in surplus-producing areas of Upper Nile State to mature. This is likely to favor agricultural production in the bimodal areas of the South, where rains extend well into November.
    • South Sudan oil will continue to flow through Sudan. Sudan has announced the continuation of South Sudan’s oil through facilities in its territory. This is expected to generate revenue needed to improve the current economic situation and reduce inflation levels. As a result, relatively more seasonal cereal price declines between October-December, except in Juba, are expected.

    Projected Outlook through December 2013

    No significant changes are expected from the outcomes described in the July Outlook report. Generally, food security is expected to improve with upcoming harvests in October.

    In Pibor County, Jonglei State, however, displaced households will continue to face food consumption gaps even with the ongoing food assistance. Access to milk and blood in these areas is below average as most livestock have been moved to avoid the conflict. Households normally trade livestock for cereal from October to December. The persistent insecurity in the area will continue to hamper trade which usually peaks during the October to April dry season and contributes to nearly 50 percent of poor households’ food. As the households in Pibor lost the current agricultural season, they will need to purchase the 5-10 percent of food they normally earn from that source. Poor households are likely to face slight food deficits at least through the end of the Outlook period. 

    Figures Seasonal Calendar for a Typical Year

    Figure 1

    Seasonal Calendar for a Typical Year

    Source: FEWS NET

    This Food Security Outlook Update provides an analysis of current acute food insecurity conditions and any changes to FEWS NET's latest projection of acute food insecurity outcomes in the specified geography over the next six months. Learn more here.

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