Skip to main content

Food security outcomes will continue to improve until January

  • Food Security Outlook Update
  • South Sudan
  • November 2013
Food security outcomes will continue to improve until January

Download the Report

  • Key Messages
  • Current Situation
  • Updated Assumptions
  • Projected Outlook through 2014
  • Key Messages
    • Food security outcomes will continue to improve through December as the main harvest progresses. Stressed (IPC Phase 2) food insecurity will persist from January to March in areas affected by localized floods and insecurity due to cattle raiding. In Abyei and Pibor, humanitarian assistance will maintain the food insecurity level at Stressed over the same period.

    • Staple grain prices will continue to decline through December as local production increases food supplies on markets; prices are expected to remain stable until March 2014. However, insecurity in Jonglei State is likely to undermine the expected decline in prices.

    • The governments of Sudan and South Sudan continue to prepare for the resumption of cross-border trade. Implementation of the ‘four freedoms’ (freedom of residence, movement, economic activity, and property acquisition and disposal) is expected to start before the end of the year. Some labor migration has already begun from Upper Nile State to Sudan.


    Current Situation
    • Average to above average rains continued well into November across the country, resulting in increased flooding, especially in flood-prone areas.  An interagency needs assessment team identified 278,790 flood-affected people, with over 38 percent in Jongleis State alone.
    • Sudan and South Sudan finalized a draft agreement in October to simplify cross-border trade, eliminate tariff and non-tariff barriers, and recognize each other’s standards. Sudanese officials inspected Joda crossing point between White Nile in Sudan and Upper Nile in South Sudan in late October.  However, security remains a major challenge in some border areas. On November 11, four Sudanese traders were reportedly killed by bandits shortly after crossing into Sudan from Unity State. This is likely to deter traders from taking the risk of crossing through border areas, especially close to the Abyei area.
    • Over 1,700 previously stranded returnees in Kosti arrived in South Sudan on November 4. These returnees had been stranded due to the border closure. About 1,350 of the returnees went to Aweil (Northern Bahr el Ghazal), while 300 headed to Wau (Western Bahr el Ghazal), and 56 people went to Malakal (Upper Nile). Humanitarian agencies provided the returnees with shelter and basic services on arrival.
    • The size of the IDP and returnee population, as well as the population affected by floods in Jonglei, Lakes, Unity, Warrap and Northern Bahr el Ghazal, has increased over the last month. These populations are likely to experience consumption gaps throughout the scenario period, despite the ongoing harvest. The current effort to provide humanitarian support to all of these groups by the government and humanitarian agencies is expected to continue:
      • IDPs in Pibor: Humanitarian agencies provided over 5,600 households with a 15-day ration between October 29 and November 6, and women and children received supplementary food assistance. With improved access during the dry season, IDPs in Pibor are expected to receive a full ration instead of 15-day rations.
      • Returnees: As the returnees arrived towards the end of the agricultural season, they will be in need of assistance at least until the next harvest in August/September 2014.
      • Flood-affected households: As of mid-November, the Government of South Sudan and humanitarian agencies assisted 167,000 people affected by floods with food and non-food assistance.
    • Sorghum prices either remained relatively stable or decreased between September and October following increased availability of local produce in the market. Sorghum prices in Rumbek and Bor remain the highest due mainly to seasonal flooding that continued to disrupt market supply. An inflow of commodities from Uganda was disrupted in November when a river near the border town of Alegu overflowed.
    • Livestock conditions in the semi-arid pastoral zone of Kapoeta are good with milk readily available for households. Sustained heavy rains from September to November replenished water and encouraged pasture regeneration after poor performance prompted by the prolonged dry spell from May to July. In Warrap state, livestock conditions are good but prevalence of diseases such as anthrax, Bovine Pleuro Pneumonia (BPP), and watery diarrhea were reported among livestock; however, no significant impact on food security is expected given the limited scope of the diseases.
    • Over 7,000 heads of cattle were looted in early November following attacks in Akobo and Nyirol counties in Jonglei State by a suspected rival ethnic group from neighboring Pibor County. For affected households, access to milk and other livestock products will be reduced.

    Updated Assumptions

    The current situation has not affected the assumptions used to develop FEWS NET’s most likely scenario for the period of October 2013 to March 2014. A full discussion of the scenario is available in the October Outlook report.


    Projected Outlook through 2014

    No significant changes are expected from the outcomes described in the October Outlook report. Food security outcomes will continue to improve with the ongoing main harvests.

    As food security outcomes continue to improve, most areas are expected to face minimal (IPC Phase 1) acute food insecurity through December 2013. Stressed (IPC Phase 2) levels of food insecurity will persist in Abyei area (the phase level maintained due to humanitarian assistance), while Crisis (IPC Phase 3) food insecurity will continue to exist in Pibor County until the end of the year. Both Abyei and Pibor will face Stressed (IPC Phase 2) levels of acute food insecurity during the January to March 2014 period, with the phase level maintained due to humanitarian assistance.

    Poor households and flood-affected households are expected to harvest insufficient foods to meet needs through March 2014. Therefore, they are expected to experience some consumption gaps during the January to March period at least. IDPs and returnees are also expected to rely on assistance to be able to marginally meet their consumption needs. The flood -affected areas in Jonglei, Warrap, Unity and Lakes states will face Stressed (IPC Phase 2) acute food insecurity from January to March.

    Food assistance to refugees in Maban, Upper Nile State, and Pariang in Unity state is expected to maintain the food insecurity level at Stressed through the Outlook period.

    Figures

    Figure 2

    Source:

    This Food Security Outlook Update provides an analysis of current acute food insecurity conditions and any changes to FEWS NET's latest projection of acute food insecurity outcomes in the specified geography over the next six months. Learn more here.

    Get the latest food security updates in your inbox Sign up for emails

    The information provided on this Website is not official U.S. Government information and does not represent the views or positions of the U.S. Agency for International Development or the U.S. Government.

    Jump back to top