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Emergency (IPC Phase 4) and worse outcomes persist during harvesting period

  • Food Security Outlook Update
  • South Sudan
  • December 2023
Emergency (IPC Phase 4) and worse outcomes persist during harvesting period

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  • Key Messages
  • Current Situation
  • Seasonal Calendar for a Typical Year
  • Updated Assumptions
  • Projected Outlook through May 2024
  • Most likely food security outcomes and areas receiving significant levels of humanitarian assistance
  • Key Messages
    • The level and severity of acute food insecurity remain high during the harvesting period, sustained by negative impacts of conflict and/or flooding, rising returnee burden, high food prices, limited income earning opportunities, and localized below-average harvests. Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are widespread, with Emergency (IPC Phase 4) persisting in 22 counties of Jonglei, Upper Nile, Unity, Northern Bahr el Ghazal, Warrap, and Eastern Equatoria. Areas of highest concern remain Rubkona of Unity and Pibor of Greater Pibor Administrative Area (GPAA), where there are likely households in Catastrophe (IPC Phase 5), as well as among returnee populations who have severely limited coping capacity or assets. Nyirol, Duk, and Uror of Jonglei; parts of Upper Nile; and Aweil East of Northern Bahr El Ghazal also remain of high concern, particularly amid high returnee burden.
    • Renewed assistance since November in Rubkona is helping to mitigate some of the severity of food consumption gaps, however, a recent assessment by REACH highlighted ongoing high levels of severe coping, particularly among returnee populations, reflective of high share of population in Emergency (IPC Phase 4). Moreover, the very high burden of returnees is expected to further exacerbate non-food drivers of acute malnutrition including poor health, nutrition, and sanitation services contributing to further deterioration in severe acute malnutrition, particularly as the lean season approaches. Sustained multi-sectoral emergency assistance remains critical to save lives and prevent further collapse of livelihoods in the areas.
    • Conditions are expected to deteriorate further in the post-harvest period through the start of the typical lean season in May 2024. Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes are expected to expand to 28 counties across the north and east of the country. Populations in Catastrophe (IPC Phase 5) are expected to remain in Pibor, increase among returnee populations, and emerge in Aweil East. This deterioration continues to be driven by the factors mentioned above and exacerbated by depletion of household stocks and seasonal declines in wild foods, fish, and livestock products. Planned humanitarian assistance is expected to restart in February/March 2024 and will likely mitigate the severity of acute food insecurity in 15 counties. 
    • Although the risk of Famine (IPC Phase 5) through May 2024 remains low, FEWS NET continues to closely monitor households’ access to food and income, including wild foods and humanitarian assistance, amid exacerbating conditions of returnee burden, dynamic conflict patterns in the lead-up to the December 2024 elections, and as the next rainy season approaches.

    Current Situation

    Conflict and insecurity:  Conflict and insecurity leading to population displacement continue to be reported in several locations across South Sudan, threatening lives; disrupting livelihoods and trade flows; and affecting households’ ability to access food even during the harvesting period in December. Tensions remained high in Unity, Abyei Administrative Area (AA), and parts of Warrap following clashes and violent incidences reported in late November (Figure 1). In Unity, a revenge attack involving two armed youths in Mayom county was reported on December 1, and fighting between forces loyal to Lt. Gen. Simon Maguek and Sudan People’s Liberation Movement-in-Opposition (SPLA-IO) elements in Guit county occurred on December 2. Along the Abyei AA-Twic border region, three fatal clashes were reported in December resulting in deaths of over 15 people, wounding of dozens, and disruption of trade flows. The first on December 3 occurred near Juol-Jok village in Rumamer, the second on December 13 in Malual Aleu village of Anthony in Abyei AA, and the third on December 31 in which the Deputy Chief Administrator for Abyei was killed along with 5 others along the road from Abyei to Aneet town. Other attacks at Akac Payam of Gogrial West in Warrap State over the Muonyjang cattle camp claimed by both Aguok and Kuac communities led to killing of five people and wounding several others between December 7 and 8. Retaliatory attacks involving communities of Gogrial East of Warrap and Jur River of Western Bahr el Ghazal over land disputes in Manyang Payam, at the border between the two areas, continued into December. The armed youths from Jur River attacked Thurayiir, Bunchuer, and Apuk Thiel villages in Gogrial and burned down several houses on December 3. As the Christmas and New Year holidays approached, over 4,000 joint forces were deployed across Unity state to bolster security measures between December 20 and January 5.  

    In Greater Equatoria, clashes between armed cattle keepers and farmers have also continued in December, disrupting household livelihoods and destroying crops and harvests. Armed Dinka cattle keepers from Bor county of Jonglei located in Mundri West and Maridi counties of Western Equatoria, as well as in Yei, Lainya, and parts of Juba county (Bungu and Mangalla Payams) of Central Equatoria, have reportedly destroyed crops during the harvesting period, likely leading to lower food availability for affected households. On December 6, in Mvolo County, armed clashes between locals and cattle keepers from Yirol county, triggered by destruction of farmlands in Bahr Grindi Payam of Mvolo, resulted in five injuries. In Jonglei and Greater Pibor Administrative Area (GPAA), tensions and fear were high approaching the Christmas Holidays amid rumors of armed youth mobilization.  

    Figure 1

    Conflict hotspots from November 1 – December 8, 2023
    map of South Sudan conflict hotspots from November 1 – December 8, 2023

    Source: FEWS NET using ACLED data

    Figure 2

    Initial intentions for onward movement* of those arriving from Sudan
    Initial intentions for onward movement* of those arriving from Sudan

    *Note: This does not reflect the final destination of returnees as returnees’ decisions may shift based on evolving conditions and priorities.

    Source: FEWS NET using data from IOM DTM and UNHCR

    Returnees: The daily flow of South Sudanese returnees from Sudan remains steady at an elevated level through mid-December, with on average 1,500 people crossing the border every day. However, following the expansion of the conflict in Sudan to the previously relatively calm area of Al Jazirah state in mid-December, the number of arrivals increased to 2,000-2,600 per day between December 20 and 22. As of the end of December, the cumulative total surpassed 450,000 arrivals. 

    Upon arrival, about half indicated their intended final destination was within Upper Nile, while 12 percent intended to move to areas of Unity or Central Equatoria, respectively (Figure 2). As of late-December, the actual location of about half of these arrivals (~220,000 people) was known, with over 90,000 in Upper Nile (over 50,000 in Renk and 27,000 in Malakal), nearly 50,000 people in Unity (mostly in Rubkona), and over 40,000 in Central Equatoria. It is not known where the other half are currently located. For those 50,000 returnees still residing in transit centers in Renk, poor feeder road conditions and insecurity are constraining onward movement. In addition, over 100,000 South Sudanese returnees have arrived from Ethiopia since the beginning of August 2023, with Laukpiny/Nasir (over 50,000 people), Maiwut (~20,000 people) of Upper Nile, Akobo of Jonglei (~13,000 people), and Ulang (~10,000 people) hosting the highest shares of these returnees. 

    The ongoing high influx of South Sudanese returnees continues to exert heavy pressure on host communities’ as they arrive with little to no assets, extremely low coping capacity, and are heavily reliant on host households for food and income while they re-integrate into these communities. The impact of this high returnee burden is thus contributing to early depletion of food stocks, atypically high reliance on more severe coping strategies, and driving atypically large to extreme food consumption gaps in both returnee and host communities in December. In Rubkona, a recent assessment by REACH in December documented continued reliance on severe coping strategies, particularly among returnee populations, given the extremely limited livelihood opportunities and heavy dependence on wild foods, even as assistance delivery has scaled up in November and December. In addition, the limited access to basic health and nutrition services in the destination areas is sustaining poor living conditions, high levels of morbidity and disease outbreaks, and contributing to high levels of acute malnutrition.

    Extended season performance: The main rainfall season that typically ends in October has this year extended through early December, driven by the strong El Niño event in the East African region. As of mid-December, most areas across South Sudan received 5-45 percent higher rainfall amount than the normal for the period of October-December (Figure 3). Key informants reported that the rains stopped in first week of December in most parts of Western and Eastern Equatoria; in Juba, Yei, and Lainya of Central Equatoria; and in Pibor of GPAA. In Morobo, rains continued through the second week of December. The prolonged rains provided average to very good growth conditions for late-maturing sorghum and maize crops in the bimodal zone (Figure 4), however, high soil saturation has negatively affected the harvest of groundnuts and beans in parts of the Equatorias, and interfered with grain drying of main season crops, thus likely to increase post-harvest losses.

    Figure 3

    Seasonal rainfall as a percent of normal, October through mid-December (pentad 4), 2023
    Seasonal rainfall as a percent of normal, October through mid-December (pentad 4), 2023

    Source: FEWS NET/USGS

    Figure 4

    Potential crop performance based on current availability of water (WRSI), as end of November 2023
    Potential crop performance based on current availability of water (WRSI), as end of November 2023

    Source: FEWS NET/USGS

    Main Season harvest: Although national annual crop and food security assessment mission (CFSAM) report is not yet available, crop performance monitoring information indicates that the main season harvest in bimodal and unimodal areas is likely to be generally similar to last year’s, with some areas likely to harvest less than last year due to prolonged dry spells, pest infestations, and post-harvest losses. The main season harvest for early maturing sorghum in unimodal areas is mostly completed. The harvest of long maturing sorghum is complete in Kolnyang payam of Bor South in Jonglei and ongoing in Cueibet, Rumbek center, Awerial, and Greater Yirol of Lakes and is expected to be completed by late December. Second season crops such as maize are currently in seed formation, maturity, and harvesting stages in most parts of the bimodal zone. Meanwhile, long maturing sorghum crops in Magwi, Ikwoto, Budi, and the southern part of Torit of Eastern Equatoria; rural areas of Juba in Central Equatoria; as well as ratoon crops in greater Kapoeta Counties are at maturity to harvesting stages, with the main harvest likely to start in late December 2023 to early January 2024. Harvesting of sesame and groundnut crops are completed in Opari and Pageri Payams of Magwi as well as Yei of Central Equatoria. 

    Floodwaters and impacts: In addition to the flood-related displacement reported in November, heavy rains in December led to severe flooding in Maban of Upper Nile, displacing an approximate of 200,000 people according to the Jesuit Refugee Service (JRS). The high residual floodwaters in Fangak of Upper Nile; Rubkona, Mayom, Leer, and Mayendit of Unity; and expansion in Twic East of Jonglei are continuing to restrict household movement and trade flows, as well as the delivery of humanitarian assistance in some of the flood-affected areas (Figure 5). In addition, flood waters continue to sustain high prevalence of human disease, compounding on the poor hygiene and sanitation conditions in displacement sites, particularly in Rubkona of Unity, and further aggravating the already severe acute malnutrition and food security situations in these affected areas.

    Figure 5

    Maximum flood extent comparing mid-December 2023 to the end of October 2023
    Maximum flood extent comparing mid-December 2023 to the end of October 2023

    Source: FEWS NET using VIIRS data from UNOSAT

    Livestock production: Rangelands and livestock body conditions continue to be fair to good across the pastoral and agropastoral livelihood zones as a result of the improved availability of water, browse, and pasture amid above-average rainfall performance (Figure 6). According to FEWS NET’s weekly field monitoring information, access to livestock products have improved in Maiwut and Fashoda of Upper Nile; Duk and Fangak of Jonglei, Pibor in GPAA; Leer and Mayendit of Unity; and Torit and the Kapoetas of Eastern Equatoria. However, livestock production continues to be affected by cattle rustling and thefts, intra- and inter-communal violence, and the lack of or limited access to veterinary services, especially in Warrap, Eastern Lakes, Jonglei, Unity, and Eastern Equatoria. In Aweil North of Northern Bahr el Ghazal and parts of northern Upper Nile, key informants and news outlets continued to report rising presence of Sudanese nomads earlier-than-normal, likely to cause significant pressure on rangeland resources and drive conflict over resource use among the host community, herders, and nomads. 

    Figure 6

    Vegetative health, measured by the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) as a percent of normal, December 11-20, 2023
    Vegetative health, measured by the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) as a percent of normal, December 11-20, 2023

    Source: FEWS NET/USGS

    Macroeconomy: The South Sudan macroeconomy remains persistently poor despite continued crude oil export through Port Sudan, high global crude oil price, and continued exchange rate reforms aimed at containing the depreciation of the South Sudanese Pound (SSP). In early December, the Central Bank continued to auction off foreign currency, targeting commercial banks and forex bureaus via the Term Deposit Facility (TDF) mechanism meant to support the re-introduction of treasure bills as a source of domestic financing (World Bank). This time, the Bank auctioned a total of US 3.255 million US dollars, which is a decrease from USD 5,282,400 million auctioned in early November 2023. The reducing value of foreign cash auctioning is likely to drive a widening gap between parallel and official exchange rates. Even with additional revenue from non-oil sector and ongoing reorganization of the informal foreign exchange market by Central Bank, the value of SSP remains significantly depreciated against the USD in both the official and parallel markets by 2.9 and 3.8 percent respectively between October and November 2023 and by 62.7 and 72.5 percent relative to same month last year, driving high supply cost, elevated staple food price and limiting poor households’ access to market food.

    Market and Trade: Market supply levels are generally moderate around the country due to improving feeder road conditions and receding floodwaters which are permitting trade flows and market access. However, in some localized areas in Greater Upper Nile region and parts of Warrap, sporadic conflict, persisting insecurity, and poor feeder road conditions due to recent rains are limiting trade flows (Figure 7).

    Cross border trade with Uganda is occurring regularly via Nimule and Kaya/Vura border crossing points, although at lower levels when compared to last month and to the same time last year due to rising costs of transport that have led truck drivers to protest. Compared to October, the import volumes of maize grain and sorghum from Uganda to South Sudan via Nimule border point in November were 25 and 28 percent lower, respectively, and were 62 and 76 percent lower than the same time last year, respectively. For maize flour at the Kaya border, the import volume in November was 87-88 percent lower than observed in October 2023 and the same period last year due to same policy-related reasons mentioned above. Trade flow from Sudan, on the other hand, remains significantly disrupted due to ongoing conflict, with no cereal imports from Sudan via Gok-Machar and Warawar border crossing points through November. This continues to negatively impact market supply and commodity pricing in northern states.

    Figure 7

    Markets and trade flows, December 2023
    Markets and trade flows, December 2023

    Source: FEWS NET cross-border trade data

    Staple food prices and purchase power: Despite good supply levels in most markets and some stabilization of prices in recent months, retail food prices remain high in November (Figure 8). According to the analysis of November retail price data available in CLIMIS, a malwa (3.5 kgs) of white sorghum in November was on average 25-78 percent more expensive than the same period last year in Juba, Wau, Bor South, and Rumbek and between 140-270 percent above the five-year average in the same markets due to continued SSP depreciation and rising costs of importation. Compared to the peak of the lean season (July-August 2023), prices of white sorghum in November were lower in Rumbek Center (-7 percent) and Wau (-9 percent), though slightly higher in Juba (8 percent) due to high market dependence. 

    High cereal prices and low wages continue to undermine household purchasing power. Based on analysis of terms of trade of casual labor to sorghum, a day's wage in November 2023 could purchase the same amount of sorghum as in October 2023 in Juba and Aweil, but only 7 kg in Wau compared to 10 kg in October. Compared to same month last year, wages in November could purchase only 1 and 4 kgs more in Juba and Aweil respectively but 3 kgs less in Wau due to a reduction in wage rates as a result of limited labor opportunities and high demand.

    Figure 8

    White sorghum (feterita) prices per malwa (3.5 kg) in 4 key markets, January 2020 to November 2023
    White sorghum (feterita) prices per malwa (3.5 kg) in 4 key markets, January 2020 to November 2023

    Source: FEWS NET using data from CLIMIS

    Humanitarian food assistance: In November, given elevated needs particularly among returnees and host communities, WFP reached 860,687 people with general food distribution (GFD) and food for assets (FFA) compared to a preliminary plan of 641,593 beneficiaries. However, as of early December, the organization expected to scale back down food assistance, targeting an estimated 422,359 people with GFD and FFA, a decline of about half the number of people reached in November. This period typically sees little assistance delivery given the ongoing harvest, however, the sharper-than-normal decline in assistance during this harvest period is due in large part to significant funding cuts (Figure 9). In November and December, distributions are ongoing for the existing IDPs in Malakal POC and town with total of 42,782 people reached; one-off double distribution is ongoing in Rubkona with some 89,325 people already reached (46 percent) out of 193,000 planned; returnees continue to be assisted with high-energy biscuits, in-kind food or cash assistance for nearly 400,000 South Sudanese returnees; and plans are underway to provide one-off assistance for 14,616 Mangalla IDPs, 3,198 individuals in Mundri West, and 55,547 individuals in Panyijiar based on flood assessments conducted during the main rainy season. Food assistance needs remain highest in areas of extreme concern including Rubkona of Unity; Pibor county of GPAA; Duk and Nyirol of Jonglei; Aweil East and Aweil North of Northern Bahr el Ghazal; Renk of Upper Nile and Pariang of Unity that have or will have populations in Catastrophe (IPC Phase 5).

    Figure 9

    Population reached with humanitarian food assistance (General Food Distributions and Food for Assets programs) compared to FEWS NET’s estimated population in need, January 2021 – November 2023
    Population reached with humanitarian food assistance (General Food Distributions and Food for Assets programs) compared to FEWS NET’s estimated population in need, January 2021 – November 2023

    Note: FEWS NET produces population in need estimates using a range; a point estimate is used here for data visualization purposes; additionally, the gradient shading between the population reached (green bars) and the remaining population in need (grey bars) is intended to reflect the inherent uncertainty in establishing if those most in need were reached with assistance

    Source: FEWS NET using WFP data

    Current food security outcomes: South Sudan faces high levels of acute food insecurity during the harvesting period in December primarily due to the sustained negative impacts of conflict and/or flooding; high returnee burden; high food prices amid persistent macroeconomic challenges characterized by SSP depreciation and limited income-earning opportunities; and localized below-average harvests limiting food availability at the household levels. However, the above-average rainfall through mid-December has likely improved food consumption outcomes for those with access to livestock products. Widespread Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are expected in 49 counties, with 22 counties in Emergency (IPC Phase 4) across Jonglei, Upper Nile, Unity, Northern Bahr el Ghazal, Warrap, and Eastern Equatoria. The areas of greatest concern include Rubkona of Unity and Pibor County in GPAA, where some households are likely in Catastrophe (IPC Phase 5), as well as among returnee populations who have severely limited coping capacity or assets. Nyirol, Duk, and Uror of Jonglei; parts of Upper Nile; and Aweil East of Northern Bahr El Ghazal also remain of high concern, particularly amid high returnee burden.    

    While the provision of a one-off double distribution in Rubkona and ongoing assistance to returnees in their final destinations is likely reducing the number of households facing catastrophe (IPC Phase 5), conditions remain extremely poor. A scale-up of multi-sectoral responses in Rubkona and other areas of highest concern is necessary to further mitigate severe food insecurity and malnutrition, save lives, and prevent livelihood collapse. Recent assessments in Rubkona by REACH in early December and in Luakpiny/Nasir by MedAir in late November highlight the precarious conditions for returnee households and the heavy burden exerted on host communities. In Rubkona, some households are reportedly engaging in very risky coping strategies indicative of sustained Emergency (IPC Phase 4) or worse outcomes, including dangerous and risky migration, continued liquidation of assets, and sustained heavy dependence on wild foods, an activity that itself is dangerous and difficult. Households further report steady erosion of capacity to share resources given ubiquity of food consumption deficits. Similarly, in parts of Luakiny/Nasir, host households reported depleting food stocks given high level of sharing with returnees and increasingly reliance on wild foods (particularly fish) as a key source of food. Levels of malnutrition among both returnee and host communities were high (proxy GAM rate of 19.4 percent and proxy SAM rate of 7.6 percent)1 with reports of disease outbreaks including measles and malaria. 


    Seasonal Calendar for a Typical Year
    Seasonal calendar for a typical year in South Sudan

    Source: FEWS NET


    Updated Assumptions

    The assumptions used to develop FEWS NET’s most likely scenario for the South Sudan Food Security Outlook for October 2023 to May 2024 remain valid, except for the following revisions: 

    • Rainfall: Based on the NMME forecast, the March to May 2024 first season rains in bimodal South Sudan are likely to be above average, though there is uncertainty given the long-range nature of the forecast. 
    • Staple food price projection: Based on updated FEWS NET’s integrated price analysis, in key reference markets of Aweil Centre, Wau, Juba, and Bor South, the retail price per malwa (3.5 kgs) of white sorghum is expected to seasonally decline during the December 2023 to January 2024 harvesting period, ranging from 2,000 to 2631 SSP. It is likely to follow seasonal rising trends during the February to May 2024 post-harvest period and at the start of the lean season in April/May, ranging from 2,200 to 3168 SSP. Despite localized differences in prices across key reference markets during the projection period, overall, the retail price of white sorghum is likely to range from 12 percent lower to 33 percent higher than last year, and 104 to 183 percent above the five-year average in Wau, Juba, Bor South and Aweil Centre respectively. Persistent above average prices are due to continued local currency depreciation, disrupted trade with Sudan, high fuel and supply cost, and tighter competition for available grains within the East Africa region.
    • Humanitarian food assistance: According to updated plans provided by WFP, the agency anticipates reaching approximately 3 million beneficiaries monthly with in-kind and cash-based food assistance under General Food Distribution and Food for Assets programs. Distribution is expected to start in some areas in January and gradually scale up through the peak of the lean season. However, delivery will periodically be disrupted by conflict and insecurity in line with past trends. Due to funding restrictions, WFP will prioritize the delivery of food assistance during the 2024 lean season to areas classified in Emergency (IPC Phase 4) or worse and areas hosting a high influx of South Sudanese returnees. While three months of assistance is currently planned for returnees, more long-term plans remain unclear. 

    Projected Outlook through May 2024

    The severity and level of acute food insecurity is likely to remain high through January harvesting period given localized below-average harvests, rising returnee burden, high food prices, and persistently poor macroeconomic conditions, characterized by high SSP depreciation and limited income-earning opportunities. Even with increased availability of food from the main season harvest and increased availability of livestock products for those with access to livestock, Emergency (IPC Phase 4) or worse outcomes are expected to persist across Jonglei, Upper Nile, Unity, Northern Bahr el Ghazal, Warrap, and Eastern Equatoria. The resumption of food assistance in Rubkona in late November and planned continuation of assistance starting in January 2024 will likely continue to mitigate some of the most severe food security outcomes. However, elevated levels of Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcome with some households likely experiencing Catastrophe (IPC Phase 5) are expected through January. Similarly, pockets of households in Catastrophe (IPC Phase 5) are expected in Pibor of GPAA due to conflict and low livestock asset ownership, and among returnee households due to extremely limited assets and coping capacity. 

    Conditions are expected to deteriorate further from February through May 2024, which covers both the post-harvest and the start of the lean season in the country. Widening food consumption gaps and worsening acute malnutrition will be driven by the depletion of own-produced food stocks, seasonal declines in the availability of wild foods, fish, and livestock products, limited income-earning opportunities, and high rising staple food prices amid the persistence of macroeconomic challenges. The rising returnee burden will continue to aggravate conditions, particularly in parts of Unity, Upper Nile, and Jonglei that border Sudan and Ethiopia. Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes are expected to expand from 18 to 28 counties, mostly in Jonglei, Lakes, Northern Bahr el Ghazal, parts of Unity, Upper Nile and Eastern Equatoria states. Furthermore, populations facing Catastrophe (IPC Phase 5) are expected to continue in Pibor County in GPAA; increase among returnee populations, particularly those with limited social connections and no assets; and emerge in Aweil East of Northern Bahr el Ghazal. The planned start of the 2024 lean season food assistance distribution cycle in January in some counties and February or March in others is expected to mitigate the severity of acute food insecurity in 15 counties through May. In these counties, Crisis! (IPC Phase 3!) outcomes are expected, mainly in Koch, Leer, Mayendit, Panyijiar, and Pariang of Unity; Cueibet and Rumbek North of Lakes; Kapoeta East of Eastern Equatoria; Longochuk, Luakpiny/Nasir, Maban of Upper Nile; Ayod and Twic East of Jonglei; Abyei AA; and Twic of Warrap.

    In Rubkona specifically, the anticipated high burden of returnees is also expected to exacerbate non-food drivers of acute malnutrition. The area has long hosted a large, displaced population, and the additional influx of returnees is exacerbating already crowded living conditions within an inundated floodplain. Planned humanitarian assistance coupled with some market functionality and access to wild foods, is expected to prevent a sharp increase in the population facing extreme hunger. However, in the absence of multisectoral interventions, poor health, nutrition, and sanitation services are likely to facilitate repeated outbreaks of measles and other diseases leading to sustained, elevated morbidity levels and high levels of acute malnutrition. According to the IPC’s analysis, acute malnutrition levels among children under five are expected to surpass the Extremely Critical (GAM WHZ ≥30 percent) threshold during the next lean season, even though cases of severe hunger, or Catastrophe (IPC Phase 5) outcomes, are expected to remain low.


    Most likely food security outcomes and areas receiving significant levels of humanitarian assistance

    Recommended citation: FEWS NET. South Sudan Food Security Outlook Update December 2023: Emergency (IPC Phase 4) and worse outcomes persist during harvesting period, 2023.

    1

    [1] The malnutrition results were based on rapid MUAC assessment using Lot Quality Assurance Sampling (LQAS) method to sample 120 children aged 6-59 months.

    This Food Security Outlook Update provides an analysis of current acute food insecurity conditions and any changes to FEWS NET's latest projection of acute food insecurity outcomes in the specified geography over the next six months. Learn more here.

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