Emergency to persist in several counties during the harvest amid returnee influx

• At the peak of the lean season in July/August, more than 60 percent of the population will face moderate to large consumption gaps indicative of Crisis (IPC Phase 3) or Emergency (IPC Phase 4). Rising staple food prices driven up by high regional prices, cross-border trade flow disruptions, and a delayed first harvest in bimodal Equatoria are aggravating already seasonally poor food access. Emergency (IPC phase 4) outcomes persist across Upper Nile, Warrap, Northern Bahr el Ghazal, Unity, and Jonglei, with households in Catastrophe (IPC Phase 5) in Panyikang and Fashoda counties of Upper Nile due to multiple years of asset and livelihood erosion, combined with the recent influx of South Sudanese returnees and conflict-related disruption to trade flow with Sudan. 
• Food assistance continues to mitigate the severity of acute food insecurity in 12 counties in South Sudan through the remainder of the lean season. However, assistance is expected to seasonally reduce in October once the harvest begins, despite rising needs in the northern areas. Furthermore, a necessary scale-up in assistance is likely to be hindered by anticipated large funding shortfalls. 
• Crisis (IPC Phase 3) and Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes will remain widespread even after the harvest begins in October. In parts of Upper Nile, Jonglei, Warrap, and Northern Bahr el Ghazhal, 18 counties will be in Emergency (IPC Phase 4) due to marginal crop production, high staple food prices, and a lack of resources to support the high numbers of returnees. In addition, below-average rainfall over much of eastern South Sudan, correlated with El Niño climate conditions, has deepened deficits over southeastern pastoral and agro-pastoral areas. Localized crop failure is likely in areas of Lafon and the Kapoetas in Eastern Equatoria. However, more severe deterioration in households’ access to food and income will be mitigated by sustained access to livestock products given better pasture conditions.    
• While not the most likely outcome, FEWS NET assesses that a credible risk of Famine (IPC Phase 5) remains in South Sudan, particularly in the northern Jonglei-southern Upper Nile border area. These areas have very high levels of acute food insecurity and malnutrition, and conflict dynamics remain unstable amid returnee influx and competition over scarce resources. If a large-scale increase in conflict occurs, and/or it occurs alongside extensive flooding due to episodic heavy rainfall in the remainder of the season, and if these events isolate households from accessing food, including humanitarian aid, for a prolonged time, then Famine (IPC Phase 5) could occur.

Conflict and displacement: In late July through August, multiple small-scale incidences of armed clashes, petty crime, abductions, banditry, and cattle-raiding occurred in several areas in South Sudan, including in parts of Tonj North of Warrap; Yirol East of Lakes; Mayom of Unity; Uror, Nyirol, Twic East, Duk, and Akobo of Jonglei; and Pibor Administrative Area (GPAA). Although the incidents have remained localized in nature and are not expected to lead to large-scale coordinated mobilization, they remain of concern given the disruption caused to household livelihoods, assistance delivery, and trade flows, particularly at a time when food needs are high, and resources are scarce. 

In Upper Nile and northern Jonglei, conditions have remained relatively calm through August, including in Malakal Protection of Civilians (POC) Site. According to key informants, most of the Nuer population that has been displaced to the area are currently residing outside the POC which has contributed to the reduction in tensions. Much of Greater Equatoria has also remained relatively calm in August, with the exception of a few clashes in late July between suspected National Salvation Front (NAS) forces and South Sudan’s People’s Defence Forces (SSPDF) in Juba County that caused some household displacement, as well as isolated incidents of looting of household food stocks in Yei County of Central Equatoria and sporadic farmer-herder conflicts. These incidents are likely to continue to interfere with first season harvesting and main season crop production. In addition, ongoing SSPDF-led disarmament in Terekeka is causing tensions amongst locals that is likely to result in a rise in retaliatory attacks and disruptions to trade flow and movement of humanitarians along the Juba-Rokon road.

South Sudanese refugees in neighboring countries have continued to return to South Sudan through August. In the north, the flow of South Sudanese returnees and refugees fleeing the Sudan conflict has continued to rise, estimated at nearly 250,000 as of the end of August, and is anticipated to rise further through the end of the year. The newly arrived are mostly entering through Renk of Upper Nile, as well as at crossing points in Unity, Abyei Administrative Area (AA), Northern Bahr el Ghazal, and Western Bahr el Ghazal (Figure 1). More than half of the newly arrived at the border entry points have received assistance in moving to their final destinations, but congestion at the crossing points remains severe. According to the latest situation report, approximately 6,500 people remain at the Renk Transit Centre as of the end of August and conditions are poor, with reports of disease outbreaks and shortages of assistance supplies. To ease the congestion, an extension site is under construction in Renk and 5 new border points have reportedly been opened.  Of those who have migrated onward, most are residing among host communities in parts of Upper Nile, Unity, Central Equatoria, and Jonglei, many of which are areas already beset by elevated tensions over scarce resources. Indeed, a recent assessment conducted by REACH in August in Rubkona of Unity found most returnees are currently depending on social networks to access food and shelter and to meet other basic needs, putting considerable pressure on the host communities, most of whom are also highly dependent on food assistance. Further south, in the Equatoria region, the local authority (RRC) reported that 400 households (2,400 South Sudanese refugees) have voluntarily returned from Uganda and DRC, settling primarily in parts of Yei County of Central Equatoria, and engaging in crop cultivation.

In addition, preparations for a general election at the end of 2024 are currently ongoing in South Sudan. Although there are currently no reports of election-related violence, the potential for tensions and conflict to emerge and affect household food security increases as the preparations get further underway.

First season harvest: The harvesting of first season maize crops in Equatoria bimodal areas, while delayed, is now nearly complete and households are reportedly already consuming green harvests in eastern parts of Magwi, Budi, Ikwoto, and southern Torit of Eastern Equatoria; Yei, Morobo, and Lainya of Central Equatoria; and Yambio, Tambura, Ezo, Nzara, and Maridi of Western Equatoria. Satellite-based crop performance monitoring information also indicates that most of the first season maize crop in Equatoria maize and cassava livelihood zone as well as the main season maize crops in southern Raga of Western Bahr el Ghazal are in maturation/harvesting stage. Additionally, harvesting of short-maturing sorghum crops in the marginal crop production areas of greater Kapoeta counties in Eastern Equatoria is occurring, but the overall harvest is lower than typical levels for the area, due to the impact of prolonged dry spells. Overall, the first season harvest is likely to be similar to last year and the five-year average, driven by near-average rainfall performance in Western Equatoria, with exception of greater Mundri. However, harvests are likely to be similar to or lower than last year and the five-year average in Central and Eastern Equatoria due to significant rainfall deficits that led to some crop losses during the March-May period.  

Main rainfall season and crop production: The spatial and temporal distribution of June to September main rainfall season and the June to November second rainy season remains poor to date, with below-average cumulative rainfall in much of Eastern Equatoria, north-central parts of Central Equatoria, southeastern GPAA, southern Raga of Western Bahr el Ghazal, and southern portions of Northern Bahr el Ghazal. Rainfall deficits have further deepened in southeastern parts of the country through August, when rainfall is typically heaviest (Figure 2). 

In the bimodal zone of Greater Equatoria region, key informant and field monitoring reports confirmed that the second season planting of maize, groundnut, and bean crops is ongoing and households who planted maize and rice crops early in July in Western Equatoria are already engaged in first weeding. Meanwhile, main season maize and sorghum crops in unimodal rainfall areas are currently mostly in late vegetative to flowering stages of development for those that planted. According to key informants and field monitoring reports, planting is estimated to be lower than last year in Leer and Mayendit of Unity and Duk of Jonglei due to persistent flood waters in some areas, as well as fears of recurrent flooding. On the other hand, it is estimated to be similar to or higher than last year in Fashoda and Maiwut of Upper Nile; Fangak and Canal/Pigi of Jonglei; and GPAA due to the relative calm, although challenges remain to accessing seeds and tools. 

For those that have planted, crop growth conditions are generally good. This is further corroborated by satellite-derived water requirement satisfaction index (WRSI)¹ that indicates both soil water and crop growth conditions are generally average to good for grain production in most parts of the country, with the exception of areas in Eastern Equatoria and northern parts of Central Equatoria where crop growth conditions range from poor to mediocre (Figure 3). However, these areas, particularly in Eastern Equatoria, are typically highly pastoral with marginal crop production, and crop failure does not tend to constitute a severe threat to food and income access. Moreover, pasture conditions are generally near-average or above in these areas, with the exception of parts of Lafon of Eastern Equatoria and south-eastern areas of Pibor County in GPAA where pasture conditions are below average. 

Floodwaters and impacts: As of mid-August, there are no new reports of atypical flooding events across the country. Flood extents for the most part remain similar to past flood years at this point in the season, with the exception of parts of Northern Bahr el Ghazal, Warrap, and Abyei AA, where satellite imagery and field monitoring reports indicate a reduction in flood extents (Figure 4). Combined with the relative calm, this has facilitated humanitarian assistance pre-positioning and access, trade and market recovery, as well as household market access. However, persisting residual floodwaters in Mayom, Rubkona, Koch, Guit, eastern Mayendit, and Panyijiar of Unity state; western Duk, Ayod, and Twic East of Jonglei; and northeastern Tonj North of Warrap continue to limit physical access to markets and wild foods, and are reducing overall area planted due to high residual soil moisture (Figure 4). In Twic, Gogrial East, and Gogrial West of Warrap, key informants have reported localized high-intensity rainfall that led to waterlogging in July and contributed to temporary access constraints. In early August, heavy rainfall in Ageer Payam of Duk in Jonglei also led to the submerging of crops in late vegetative stage. Floodwaters have emerged in the Sobat and Akobo catchments due to the heavy rainfall in the western highlands of Ethiopia and already high river levels, but extents have remained within typical levels. Finally, in September, localized flooding was reported in Renk of Upper Nile following a torrential heavy rainfall, displacing hundreds of households, including many of those newly arrived from Sudan, and further deteriorating already poor conditions.

Livestock production: Livestock body and rangeland conditions have slightly improved from poor to good across the agropastoral and pastoral livelihood zones in South Sudan due to increased access to pasture and water. The presence of livestock at or near to homesteads is also facilitating improved access to livestock products and income from sale of livestock. Field monitoring and key informant information from Mayendit and Leer of Unity; Fashoda and Maiwut of Upper Nile; Duk of Jonglei; Pibor county of GPAA; and Torit of Eastern Equatoria indicates livestock body conditions generally range from fair to good. In the Kapoetas, while poor distribution of rainfall has affected crop production, pastures conditions are generally near- to above-average contributing to good livestock body conditions. Meanwhile, in Lafon of Eastern Equatoria, both pasture and crop conditions are poor to very poor, but overall livestock conditions are still fair due to availability of some pastures in swampy wetland areas. In parts of Upper Nile, Unity, and Northern Bahr el Ghazal bordering Sudan, cases of increased competition and conflict over limited grazing resources are reported, linked to the atypically extended presence of Sudanese pastoralists. Conditions are likely to further deteriorate with the expected arrival of more Sudanese pastoralists in these areas due to ongoing conflict in Sudan. While there are no reports of disease outbreaks across pastoral and agro-pastoral areas, field and key informant reports indicate that the protracted impacts of previous floods, cattle raiding, and past incidences of livestock diseases such as Peste des Petis (PPR), Contagious Caprine Pluro Pneumonia (CCPP), Contagious Bovine Pleura Pneumonia (CBPP) have significantly affected livestock productivity especially in Eastern Equatoria, Northern Bahr el Ghazal, Western Bahr el Ghazal, Northern Upper Nile, and some parts of Unity, Jonglei, Warrap, and Abyei AA.

Trade and markets: Overall trade flows into South Sudan have declined again this month due to tightening of regional cereal stocks availability and disruption to cross-border trade due to the conflict in Sudan. While flows from Uganda have continued uninterrupted, analysis of FEWS NET’s monthly cross-border trade monitoring data for July indicates that the volumes of maize and sorghum imported from Uganda through Nimule border crossing point in July have further reduced by 13-25 percent compared to last month (June 2023) and 76-85 percent compared to the same period last year, due to competition for tradeable cereals within East African coupled with persistent poor macro-economic conditions, depreciating local currency, and high business operation costs. Imports from Sudan have declined precipitously from a period of peak importation in March and April just prior to the outbreak of the conflict. While trade typically declines during the rainy season months due to deterioration in feed road quality, the decline has been accelerated due to the conflict and trade flow disruptions. Between June and July, the flow of sorghum declined by 85 percent at the main crossing point between the two countries (Gok-Machar).

Overall, trade flows and market functionality in key reference markets have remained similar to June, with some deterioration in the functionality of trade routes including Bor-Pibor, Twic East-Duk, Mundri-Mvolo, Mundri-Maridi due to road ambushes and insecurity linked to the presence of armed cattle herders, as well as a few reports of seasonal deterioration along routes through Greater Equatoria and Greater Bahr el Ghazal.  

Staple food prices: Persistently poor macro-economic conditions, characterized by high and unstable exchange rate, rising costs of imported goods, low domestic investment, and limited income earning opportunities, combined with conflict-related disruption in Sudan and tighter competition for available cereal stocks in the region, are negatively impacting market supplies and driving atypically high staple food prices across the country. Despite un-interrupted flow of crude oil via Sudan and continued efforts by the South Sudan Central Bank to stabilize the economy, the South Sudanese Pound (SSP) has lost significant purchasing value against USD. As of the end of July, the SSP was trading at 969 to 1028 SSP per USD on the official and parallel markets, similar to June 2023, but a 75 percent loss in value compared to same time last year. As a result, analysis of retail prices of a malwa (3.5 kg) of sorghum available in CLiMIS show increases of 85-185 percent higher than same month last year and 225-290 percent above the five-year average in Juba, Rumbek Center, Aweil Center and West, and Wau. Similarly, analysis of FEWS NET market monitoring data for some rural markets in Leer of Unity; Yei of Central Equatoria and Fashoda of Upper Nile; and Pibor of GPAA shows retail price of a malwa of sorghum in July 2023 are 30-210 percent higher than same month last year. The high staple food prices coupled with limited income and stagnant wage rates is limiting households’ access to food across most markets.

Humanitarian food assistance: During the lean season in July, WFP reached 2 million people with food assistance programs, representing about 26 percent of FEWS NET’s estimated population in need, if perfectly targeted, and 17 percent of the country’s population. According to the latest bi-weekly update covering August 7-20, WFP has extended the lean season response through the end of September in some locations, although it is unclear in which ones. Deliveries in Akobo East, Pibor, and Fangak continue to be disrupted due to access challenges, with WFP relying on air deliveries in the latter two due to inaccessibility via road or river. Planned distributions for July and August are still ongoing in all priority 1 counties, except in Pibor where May/June distributions are still ongoing. For many priority 2 and 3 counties, the lean season assistance is nearing an end, with 2 of the 16 counties in the priority 2 group (Tonj East and Koch) and 6 of the 14 counties in the priority 3 group (Baliet, Budi, Cueibet, Gogrial East, Rumbek North, and Tonj South) completed. The typical scale-down of assistance in October as the harvest begins is of increasing concern given expected continued high need in the northern areas and anticipated funding challenges. Indeed, UN senior officials are warning of a potential shortfall of 400 million USD required to address pressing needs in the next six months.

Current food security outcomes: At the peak of the lean season in July/August, the scale and severity of acute food insecurity has risen, with more than 60 percent of the population facing moderate to large consumption gaps indicative of Crisis (IPC Phase 3) or worse outcomes. The high levels of acute food insecurity in August are driven by high and rising staple food prices linked to rising costs of imported goods, tighter competition for available cereals in the region, disrupted cross-border trade, as well as the delayed first harvest in Equatoria. These conditions further exacerbate the impacts of protracted years of flooding and conflict, particularly in areas receiving large-scale influx of South Sudanese returnees fleeing the ongoing conflict in Sudan. As a result, 37 counties, mainly in Upper Nile, Warrap, Northern Bahr el Ghazal, Unity, and Jonglei, are classified in Emergency (IPC Phase 4) for August and September. Humanitarian food assistance deliveries have prevented large to extreme consumption gaps in 12 counties where at least 25 percent of the county population have been reached with general food distribution or food for asset programs and met at least 25 percent of their daily Kcal needs, reflective of Crisis! (IPC Phase 3!), including in Canal/Pigi and Fangak of northern Jonglei. 

As reported in June outlook, counties such as  Fashoda, Panyikang, and Renk of Upper Nile; and Aweil North and Aweil East of Northern el Ghazal remain counties of high concern. This is due to multiple years of asset and livelihood erosion resulting from conflict, the presence of large-scale influx of South Sudanese returnees, and conflict-related disruption to trade flows with Sudan that are driving large to extreme consumption gaps indicative of Emergency (IPC Phase 4), with likely pockets of households in Catastrophe (IPC Phase 5) in Panyikang and Fashoda counties of Upper Nile.  

In some pastoral and agro-pastoral areas of the Eastern Equatoria, the poor rainfall performance is affecting crop harvests and livestock production in localized areas. In the more pastoral areas of the Kapoetas, the average pasture conditions are facilitating better access to livestock products despite crop failures; In localized agro-pastoral areas of Lafon in Eastern Equatoria, where reportedly both pasture and crop conditions are more affected by the poor rainfall to date, some pastures and wild foods available in nearby swampy wetland areas are sustaining household access to food and income sources. As a result, an increasing number of households are likely experiencing more severe outcomes in the localized areas but not reaching levels sufficient to change the current classifications of Crisis (IPC Phase 3) in Lafon and Emergency (IPC Phase 4) in Kapoeta East and North. 

The assumptions used to develop FEWS NET’s most likely scenario for the South Sudan Food Security Outlook for June 2023 to January 2024 remain valid, except for the following revisions: 

• Rainfall: Based on the available forecasts from WMO and NMME and the expectations due to El Niño, the trend of below-average rainfall is likely to continue across most of the east and southeast. Cumulative rainfall for the June to September rainy season is thus likely to be below average in the eastern half while near-average in western parts of the country. While river levels and flood extents currently remain similar to last year for the same period, the risk of severe flooding beyond typical floodplain extents in the remainder of the rainy season is low given forecasts for overall below-average rainfall in South Sudan and in Uganda, as well as the absence of key factors including earlier start to the rainy season, higher intensity of rainfall during the season particularly in peak months of August/September, and a late end to the season. The July-November 2023 second rainy season in bimodal South Sudan is similarly likely to be below-average in the center and east, while average over the western parts. In the eastern half, the chances of below-average rainfall are highest through September, with the likelihood of average to above-average rainfall increasing in the latter months of October and November.
• Crop production: The overall harvest in 2023 is likely to be similar to or below that of 2022 and the five-year average. The relative calm in many regions combined with the arrival of South Sudanese returnees from Uganda and DRC in Greater Equatoria region has contributed to increases in planting during the main rainy season; however, localized seasonal rainfall deficits, particularly in parts of Central and Eastern Equatoria, and farmer-herder conflict is expected to interfere with crop production. In some localized areas of Jonglei and parts of Upper Nile, sporadic attacks and violence will persist and interfere with planting and harvest, while many of the newly arrived South Sudanese returnees from Sudan will lack access to land and seeds to participate in crop production in 2023. In some pastoral and agro-pastoral areas in the southeast, the poor main season rainfall performance is likely to negatively affect crop production, although the impact on households will vary depending on typical reliance on crop harvests as a source of food and income.  
• Staple food prices: Retail prices of white sorghum in Juba, Wau, Aweil, and Bor South key reference markets are expected to peak during August-September period before declining seasonally with increased supply and low market dependence from October through January main season harvest period. However, localized market and trade flow dynamics are expected contribute to differences in supply levels in key reference markets. In Aweil Center and Wau markets, disruption to cross-border trade with Sudan and seasonal deterioration in feeder roads will be major contributing factors to sustaining high staple food prices. In Juba and Bor South, market supply deficits are likely to be moderated by increased supply from main season harvest in Uganda. Based on updated FEWS NET’s integrated price projection analysis, the retail price of white sorghum is expected peak during August/September and range from 2260 to 4330 SSP/malwa, an increase of 15-100 percent compared to same month last year and 180-330 percent above the five-year average. The price is likely to decline with increased supply from October 2023 through January 2024 harvest period and range from 2,100 to 4,330 SSP/malwa, 115-315 percent above the five-year average due to continued depreciation of local currency against the US dollar, conflict disruptions, high supply cost, and tighter competition for tradeable cereals in the region. 

Levels of acute food insecurity will remain high during the main harvesting period from October 2023 through January 2024, with the persistence of Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes in many areas. In the east where forecasts anticipate a deepening of seasonal rainfall deficits and where crop production is already typically limited, households are likely to harvest at most a few months of stocks. Conditions will be exacerbated further by persistently high staple food prices, high needs linked to large-scale arrivals of South Sudanese returnees and refugees in bordering counties, and associated disruptions in trade flows from Sudan and the region. Additionally, the seasonal reduction in assistance despite rising needs in the northern areas and the anticipated large funding shortfalls that are likely to interfere with a necessary scale-up in assistance in the north is expected to contribute to persistent high needs in the harvest period. Overall, Emergency outcomes are expected in 18 counties mainly in Upper Nile, Jonglei, Northern Bahr el Ghazal, and Warrap, while Crisis outcomes will remain widespread, with 54 counties assessed to likely be in Crisis (IPC Phase 3). Meanwhile, Fashoda, Panyikang, and Renk of Upper Nile; Fangak and Canal/Pigi of Jonglei; and Aweil North and Aweil East of Northern el Ghazal will remain counties of greatest concern due to the protracted negative impacts of conflict, the expectation for below to significantly below average harvest, and the large-scale influx of South Sudanese returnees. 

FEWS NET will continue to closely monitor and evaluate the risk of Famine (IPC Phase 5) across South Sudan in the remainder of the projection period through January, relying on ground information, conflict analyses, progression of the remainder of the rainy season, and monitoring of the stream flow levels compared to historical trends. While the likelihood of clashes escalating into a coordinated large-scale conflict that targets specific communities is currently considered low amid national, state, and local peace initiatives, sporadic conflict is still likely to occur, including after the harvest when food stocks are more widely available. The conflict in Sudan adds an element of uncertainty, marked by a large influx of returnees and significant disruption to trade flows that have caused staple food prices to rise more steeply during the lean season and are expected to remain higher than the five-year average in the harvest period. Additionally, given that access to humanitarian aid has historically played a role in intercommunal tensions, the improved flow of aid combined with increased needs and elevated prices also fuels a risk of clashes.